Fantasist Trump Finally Realizes that US is Low on Key Weapons
Sun 10:08 am +00:00, 26 Jul 2026
Source: https://www.winterwatch.net/2026/07/fantasist-trump-finally-realizes-that-us-is-low-on-key-weapons/
Anybody with half a brain with two eyes or who follows Winter Watch would have seen that naked Big Brain’s threats wear no clothes. After bombastically claiming Iran would be wrecked from the air, Trump gets the word from Vance and Keane that a big campaign against Iran is not possible. Accordingly operations against Iran have been curtailed.
US only makes 50 Patriot and 8 THAAD missiles a month.
With a denutted U.S. military capacity, Iran has been scorching US bases in the region. Iran’s IRGC claimed it destroyed 11 U.S. fighter jets and helicopters at regional military bases over the past 15 days. Tehran also said additional aircraft, including an F-15, P-8, C-17 and refueling planes, were destroyed, and claimed U.S. fatalities exceeded 200. To my sensibilities this looks conservative.
This is reminiscent of the Steiner scene in the Hitler bunker movie, “Downfall”. Who says history doesn’t repeat.
source: Brett Erickson
Based at least on the initial reporting, President Trump is trying to essentially strike a deal that reverts back to the terms of the original Memorandum of Understanding. Put nicely… that’s ridiculous.
Unfortunately for Trump, unfortunately for everyone, the Trump Administration took guidance from the Lobby and Hawks that called for Washington to revoke the oil sanction waivers (General License X) that were issued under the MOU.
Even worse, during the 10-day wind down period, Treasury added an escrow account mechanism. This means that any oil sold during this window would be controlled by the United States. Of course, Iran would never willingly do that, so it was essentially torched without notice. This is significant because the oil waivers were the only real concession that Iran received up front in the original MOU.
Because the Trump Administration revoked them without notice, they cannot simply “reissue them” again in a future MOU. This is because countries that MIGHT have purchased Iranian oil under the original deal know that the US is willing to revoke them without notice. Therefore, there is no durability anymore, and they effectively lose all value as a future concession.
On top of this, the United States also never released any of Iran’s frozen assets during the 27 days the MOU was in effect, and this only further degraded any trust that the United States will hold up their end of the bargain in any deal.
To take it a step further, before the MOU was “officially” destroyed, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran, which explicitly breaches Article 9 of the MOU. President Trump putting forth an “offer” that essentially reverts back to the prior terms of the original MOU… that’s simply delusional. He knows it. Iran knows it. It’s not a serious offer.
The problem with this though, is it fundamentally guarantees that if Iran holds the cards, which I think most everyone understands that they do, President Trump WILL be forced to agree to far worse terms under a future deal than he received in the original MOU.
The odds the Iranians accept these terms are zero. Nada. Zilch. It’s an entirely unrealistic set of terms from Trump, and this will only signal to Iran that the United States is not serious, and not willing to make a real deal to end this war.
Winter takeaway: Look what happened to Venezuela’s $13 billion in oil that the U.S. controls. Most seems to have dropped into a corrupto black hole.
