Japan’s ‘destructive potential’ in South China Sea may eclipse the US: analyst
Mon 12:12 pm +00:00, 13 Jul 2026Japan’s recent firing of an anti-ship missile was first time it had shown its ‘military muscle’ since World War II, security round table told
Japanese troops take part in Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines. Photo: Reuters
Alyssa Chen
Published: 7:00pm, 13 Jul 2026Updated: 7:12pm, 13 Jul 2026
A prominent Chinese maritime analyst has sounded the alarm over Japan’s increasing military presence in the South China Sea, warning it has a “destructive potential” that could ultimately surpass that of the United States.
Speaking on Monday at a round table event in Hong Kong discussing security in the region, Wu Shicun, the founding president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said “unilateral infringements” in the disputed waters were becoming “normalised”.
He told the event – jointly organised by the institute with the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance and the Asian Academy of International Law – there had been a steep rise in military deployments, joint exercises and maritime patrols by countries outside the region.
Japan’s unprecedented, full-fledged participation in Balikatan – the annual joint military exercises conducted by the US and the Philippines – has fuelled China’s anxiety. This year’s drills saw the deployment of more than 1,400 Japanese personnel, alongside three major warships and transport aircraft.
During the exercise, Japanese forces fired a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile system outside its territory for the first time, using live rounds to strike a decommissioned Philippine Navy vessel.
“This is the first time that Japan has shown off its military muscle since the end of World War II,” Wu said.
“Japan’s military forces’ deployment into the South China Sea is inherently destructive, carrying a potential risk that may ultimately surpass even that of the United States.”
He also said: “As long as Manila and its partners do not give up using the [ruling] to serve their own interests, peace and stability in the South China Sea cannot be guaranteed.”
Wu was referring to a 2016 decision by an international tribunal in The Hague that ruled that most of China’s claims to historical and economic rights in the South China Sea were invalid.
China slams Japan’s first overseas missile launch in 80 years
Qi Dahai, the director general of the Chinese foreign ministry’s department of treaty and law, told the event that Washington was not a party to the dispute but was using every means to “stir up tensions”.
“It builds small cliques, issues so-called joint statements, sows discord and fans the flames in the region,” Qi said.
The remarks come at a time of heightened friction over the resource-rich South China Sea.
Beijing claims sovereignty over almost all islands and reefs, and the rights to adjacent waters in the sea – a stance that has locked it into long-running maritime disputes with rival claimants, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Wu was speaking a day after the 10th anniversary of the Hague ruling.
The arbitration case, which was initiated by Manila, triggered a fresh war of words on Sunday. Fourteen countries, including the US and Philippines, issued a statement marking the anniversary that said the tribunal’s ruling was “legally binding and definitive”, and criticised Beijing for refusing to recognise or implement it.
The row intensified further after a separate Japanese statement said China’s non-compliance went “against the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes”.
In response, Beijing summoned a senior official from the Japanese embassy to lodge a formal protest.
The foreign ministry also said: “Japan is not a party to the South China Sea dispute and has no right to point fingers at China regarding its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”
Japan fired a Type 88 anti-ship missile during the Balikatan exercises. Photo: Reuters
Japan fired a Type 88 anti-ship missile during the Balikatan exercises. Photo: Reuters
The ministry said that some of Japan’s recent activities – such as exporting arms and equipment to the Philippines, dispatching its forces overseas and launching offensive missiles – went “far beyond the scope of self-defence”.
Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution states that its armed forces can only be used for defensive purposes.
Beijing has dismissed the Hague ruling as “null and void”, saying it was politically motivated and violated the fundamental principle of state consent because it never agreed to the arbitration.
Chinese officials increasingly see the ruling as being weaponised by the Philippines and other countries as part of a coordinated strategy to portray China as a threat to regional stability.
Both Japan and the Philippines are key US allies. Washington has nine bases in the Southeast Asian nation, regularly holds joint naval drills to boost interoperability and has established a task force on the island of Palawan to provide intelligence and technical training to Philippine forces.
Meanwhile, Japan has emerged as an indispensable strategic partner for the Philippines. It has supplied it with coastal radar units and patrol aircraft, and they are negotiating an intelligence-sharing pact and the transfer of five Abukuma-class destroyer escorts.
They have also signed a reciprocal access agreement allowing Japanese and Philippine forces to be deployed on each other’s territory for joint combat training.
In late May, a Dutch frigate sailed near the contested Paracel Islands, making the Netherlands the latest in a series of US allies from outside the region to pass through the waters.
Beijing accused the Dutch of making an illegal intrusion and said it had sent ships and planes and used electronic warfare countermeasures to drive the frigate away.
