Is the US Blockade on Iran Working?

I fully understand what people are saying about the US blockade “failing” based on claims by both the US Navy and the US government itself. The US Navy and US gov are saying they have completely stopped maritime traffic to and from Iran.

Analysts are saying this is false – and they are right.

HOWEVER… looking at the same data presented along with these claims- while the US has failed to fully stop Iranian exports – it has just about halved them. CENTCOM says they’ve turned away around 30 ships and has seized at least 2 more. Western media claims have admitted around or perhaps more than 30 ships have passed through the blockade. Some might say halving Iranian energy exports is not a big deal and that Iran could survive this. That is likely true – but there is a bigger picture to consider.

Zooming Out in Both Time and Space

If you zoom out and look at oil/gas exports from both Iran and the entire Middle East to China – you can see the trend taking shape – the slow and approaching near total strangulation of energy exports to China.

These graphs show (based on Western media claims) Iranian oil exports, Middle East oil exports, and Middle East gas exports to China at 3 points – pre-war, the “ceasefire,” and the implementation of the ongoing US blockade on Iran. As I said before the war started, and as soon as the US called up the USMC MEU – the goal was and is now obviously to close off all energy exports from the Middle East to China – and that is what the data shows.

Of course the US also seeks to harm and ultimately topple Iran – but it is also pursuing this other much higher priority – undermining China. It is being done incrementally and it is clearly succeeding so far.

China has prepared to weather this blockade – but it is not certain whether they are prepared to challenge or break the blockade itself. The Realistic Nature of Blockades It is also important to understand that blockades are not switches that are either completely on or completely off – or static in nature. Throughout history blockades are announced and imposed – often incrementally – and then tested by those being blockaded resulting in fluctuations over time in terms of efficacy. There will be efforts to circumvent or break the blockade by Iran and its allies, and there will be attempts by the US to adapt to and overcome these efforts.

Based on superficial daily “noise” from US President Trump and CENTCOM – the US blockade has “failed.”

Based on data regarding pre-war, post-ceasefire, and post-US blockade energy exports from the region – the blockade is most certainly succeeding in driving energy exports from the region to China toward zero.

Yet the US is by no means in an unassailable position. It is simply capitalizing on operational momentum and initiative – plenty has been done by the multipolar world to prepare for precisely this scenario and it remains to be seen whether or not US momentum and initiative is enough to overcome these preparations.