China isn’t worried, they’ve got all bases covered “Trump has a reverse Midas touch – the incredible ability to turn gold into shit”
Fri 12:16 pm +00:00, 13 Mar 2026
A Chinese perspective on Trumpenstein’s war
Source: https://www.unz.com/bhua/what-are-the-chinese-saying-about-the-war/
It cannot be farther from the brilliant “success” celebrated by the Trump regime and Western propaganda.
- The surprise attack did nothing to diminish Iranian military capabilities
- Iran has retaliated firmly against USrael and their regional vassals
- USrael has lost any moral legitimacy and aroused worldwide animosity
- It is now perfectly legit to assassinate Trump and his Jew boss by the revenging Iranians
- USrael removed the one person most responsible to hold back Iran’s nuclear weapon development. Now the incentive is almost irresistible
- A new Khamenei is in charge, younger, more rigorous, far more hardline than his father since his entire family was wiped out and the Muslim honor code demands retribution
- The public resolve to resist is hardened, not weakened
Let’s look at what topics are most frequently discussed on Chinese social media, among geopolitical analysts and military observers:
- What do the battlefield realities say about US military power? What are the implications for China?
- How is the war impacting China’s energy security?
- Should China now provide Iran direct military support? If not, would it cost China global influence?
- What to look out for in Trump’s April visit to President Xi?
Battlefield realities, US military power, and implication for China
In the first day or two, there were triumphant pro-USrael celebrations in Western media.
They pointed to the successful decapitation of Khamanei as evidence of USrael military superiority.
Furthermore, they used the “success” of the strike as proof of the ineffectiveness of the HQ-9B Chinese air defense system which they claim, without evidence, that Iran possessed.
Such views have filled the panel of commentators at “fake news” media outlets like Fox and BBC.
Interestingly, on western social media, similar disinformation is echoed and amplified, often originating from India-based accounts.
The whole discourse is pure fantasy.
Neither China nor Iran has ever confirmed that China has transferred any military systems to Iran since early 2000s.
No proof, such as satellite images or electromagnetic signatures, has ever been given. No US or Israel military reports have made such claims.
Rumors of such transfer, including CM302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile (the export version of YJ-12), have circulated after the 12-day war but they are patently false.
Mao Ning, the spokeswoman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, specifically denied any transfer of Chinese military hardware to Iran including HQ-9B and CM-302, when she was asked at press briefings before the war started.
Just fact check with Gemini about the veracity of HQ-9B being destroyed in Iran. Here is the answer:
“If someone tells you a satellite photo proves an HQ-9B was destroyed, they are misinterpreting the evidence. We have clear proof that Iranian air defense sites were hit. We have clear proof that Iran’s air defense umbrella has failed to stop U.S./Israeli strikes. But there is zero publicly verified proof that the HQ-9B—the specific system you are asking about—was the piece of equipment destroyed, or that it was even deployed at the sites that were hit.”
The pro-US Japan Times reported that Iran is not equipped with HQ-9B. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/03/asia-pacific/politics/china-arms-iran/
Josh Hoang-Wilkes, an expert on Chinese military, agrees. https://dominotheory.com/hq-nein-analysts-say-no-evidence-iran-is-using-modern-chinese-air-defense-systems/
Another place to understand the actual extent of China’s military involvement is the March 5th Tucker Carlson interview with national security analyst Brandon J. Weichert.
You can listen to relevant part after 1’10” in the podcast.
What China does provide to Iran is the Beidou satellite navigation and guidance system after the 12-day war.
Iran publicly announced it has switched from GPS to Beidou last September so that the US cannot turn off or jam the GPS signals used by Iran’s military.
The Beidou system is responsible for the vastly improved penetration rate and precision of Iranian missile and drone attacks in 2026 compared with last June.
Here is an Al Jazeera report on the subject –
The Iranian Aerospace Force is using real-time Russian intelligence and the guidance and navigation of Chinese Beidou satellites to conduct highly effective counter attacks.
Read more about Chinese space capabilities and the Beidou system in a memo from former Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen from 2023, which plainly said, “GPS’s capabilities are now substantially inferior to those of China’s Beidou.” https://www.bgr.com/2093464/china-advanced-alternative-gps/
As a result, the US and Israel have suffered severe blows after the first day’s “success”. Some military hardware losses are nothing short of catastrophic.
There is little surprise USrael has air superiority since Iran doesn’t have a modern air force or latest air defense – something we already know from last June’s conflict.
But the USrael air superiority has not translated into effective suppression of Iranian counterattacks.
Iranian missiles and drones have rained down on Israel and US targets in the Gulf countries.
While air defense interceptors took many out, at a horrible cost exchange ratio (often 50, even 100, to 1), a fair number of missiles and drones broke through and took out some very high value assets, including
- $1.1 billion AN/FPS115 PAVE PAWS radar at the Al-Udeid base in Qatar. This is the most advanced long range strategic early warning radar system in US arsenal.
It uses solid-state AESA technology and has a detection range of 5,000 kilometers. Nicknamed the Desert Eye, it is the most crucial node of long-range missile detection for the US in the Middle East and will take years to replace.
The destruction of the PAVE PAWS massively reduces air defense situational awareness and the ability to detect and shoot down incoming missiles
- At least 3 THAAD batteries are verified damaged (Iran claims all THAAD systems in the Middle East are destroyed).
The AN/TPY-2 Radars of three THAAD system, each costing $400-500 million, are confirmed by satellite images to have been destroyed at Al-Ruwais base in UAE, Muwaffq Salti base in Jordan, and Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait.
The destruction of the radars essentially renders the THAAD systems worthless since interceptors cannot fire without radar targeting guidance.
One single THAAD interceptor cost $12.7-15.5 million (equivalent high altitude Chinese SAM missiles cost less than $2 million). The entire annual production of THAAD interceptors in the US is 96.
Iran used ballistic missile “decoy swarms” to force THAAD to expend its limited interceptors on false targets, then carried out saturation attacks to destroy the radars.
THAAD also cannot intercept hypersonic missiles such as Iran’s Fattah-1 and Fattah 2.
There are only 8 or 9 active THAAD batteries globally, according to Google. The US just moved the THAAD system based in South Korea to Israel. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2026/u-s-redeploys-thaad-defense-system-from-south-korea-to-middle-east-as-iran-missile-threats-persist
- At least 3 F-15E fighters were shot down. The US gave contradictory claims of “friendly fire” mistakes – first, reportedly by Patriot missiles; later changed to a Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet, making the Kuwaiti pilot the hero top-gun with the most US mission kills in the Middle East.
Regardless how it happened, 3 heavy “air superiority” jets, each costing over $100 million, were toast. Photos show ejected pilots kneel to surrender to local rescuers.
- 11 MQ-9 Reapers, each costing $30 million, are admitted by the US to have been shot down by Iranian air defense. Numerous Israeli Hermes and Herons drones were downed too. These are not suicide drones. They are designed to make return trips.
- Practically all US bases in the Gulf region have been evacuated as Iran repeatedly pounded these facilities with missiles and drones with precision
- Iran has used the Kheibar Shekan hypersonic missile carrying cluster bombs with warheads designed to open during descent, scattering up to 80 smaller submunitions (bomblets) over an area of 10 square kilometers.
These cluster munitions have hit Tel Aviv. This is something the Jews should be familiar with since they have used the same weapon on Gaza civilian on numerous occasions. What’s good for the Palestinians is good for the Jews.
In an ironic twist of fate, the “famed” US military industrial complex, who constantly accuse China and others stealing its “trade secrets” without proof, has openly used stolen Iranian technology to build its own low cost drones called LUCAS, a total copycat of the Shahed 136.
Chinese military observers have noticed the vulnerability of US air defense against Iranian hypersonic missile attacks, given the wide destruction of its prime asset radar systems (the eyes and brains of air defense).
China has far more advanced hypersonic missiles than Iran.
China leads the world in both nuclear and conventional hypersonic missiles with numerous models, different propulsion technologies and flight characteristics, as well as diverse warheads and ranges.
In terms of quantity, China easily produces one or two order of magnitude more than Iran.
If the US finds it difficult to fend off Iranian hypersonic missile attacks, it has zero chance against China.
Lyle Morris, a senior fellow for national security at the Asia Society, said “If anything, China would be able to inflict much greater damage and with more precision on US bases in Asia than Iran has up to this point in the Middle East”.
“The takeaway is that if the US sees vulnerabilities to Iranian missile strikes to US interests in the Middle East, it would be a much worse problem set for the US when facing Chinese missile threats in Asia.”
“China has the requisite capabilities to severely damage US bases in the region – even in the initial hours of a military conflict, if Beijing chooses to do so.”
According to leaked Pentagon internal report “Overmatch Brief 2026”, China’s sheer volume of missiles could easily overwhelm American defenses and neutralize the entire US aircraft carrier fleet (11 carriers) in as little as 20 minutes.
https://interestingengineering.com/military/how-china-would-use-its-hypersonic-arsenal
Pete Hegseth, the War secretary himself, commented on the Shawn Ryan Show in November 2024, – “15 Chinese hypersonic missiles can sink entire 10 US carrier fleets in 20 minutes”.
This comment was made before Hegseth was confirmed by US Congress and Pete didn’t seem to know his country has 11 carriers.
He also couldn’t name a single ASEAN country during his Congressional confirmation. Such is the quality of the “leadership” in the US military.
For the pro-USrael Fox News commentators who are mocking Chinese weaponry, perhaps the head of the US War Department is a China propagandist.
Apart from the strategic value of hypersonic weapons, Chinese observers are also noting the US has no defense against saturation attacks by low-end drones, an area where China has a capacity several order of magnitude greater than Iran.
I doubt anyone can seriously challenge the assertion China leads the world in drone production.
For those interested, you can read the half dozen Substack articles I wrote about various types of world-leading military drones in Chinese arsenal, including a drone mothership that can release its own drone swarms.
Furthermore, the vaulted US air defense systems – Patriot, Aegis, THAAD, early warning radars – have proved highly vulnerable, featuring low magazine depth, astronomical cost, and long production cycles.
In a high-intensity, high-end missile and drone conflict, China will easily overwhelm the US, as found by the Pentagon’s own Overmatch Brief.
https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/broken-eagle-china-overmatch-warning-tests-us-credibility/
Impact on China’s energy security
It doesn’t take a genius to see the US wars on Iran and Venezuela are intended to stranglehold world’s oil supply and coerce China’s energy security.
The pro-USrael group has been beside themselves with celebratory claims that the US has gained the upper hand over China by grabbing Iran’s oil.
“Counting your chickens before they hatch” is probably the best description of such premature celebrations.
No doubt the US would love to chokehold China and other states it is hostile to (e.g. Cuba). But it is very far from controlling Iran’s oil yet.
Contrary to US plan, the Iranians have closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking Gulf oil to the world, including US vassals – Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India.
These countries have similar or greater dependence on gulf oil and gas than China since they don’t have access to Russian supply.
For example, Japan and South Korea depend on the Gulf region for over 70% of their oil supply but cannot buy from Russia due to their own sanctions.
The Indians are now crawling on their knees to beg Putin for oil, merely weeks after they announced stopping Russian oil purchase as part of the “trade deal” with the US – again, showing the world what a stupid country India is. It has 9 days oil reserve.
On the other hand, China has diversified suppliers from Russia to Brazil and Angola. Iranian and Venezuela oil together account for less than 20% Chinese crude import.
China also has the world’s largest strategic oil reserve, enough for 270 days.
Iran has announced only Chinese ships are allowed transit in the Strait of Hormuz. Others can join China for safe passage if they terminate diplomatic relationship with the US and Israel, it announced.
Consensus among energy experts is if the war goes on longer, China is better positioned to weather the impact than any other country in the world.
After all, Beijing is the global leader in green energy and most advanced in electrification of its economy.
China is the largest producer and user of solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear energy. There are 37 nuclear power plants under construction in China, more than the rest of the world combined.
Indeed, the Gulf crisis is driving the world to accelerate renewable energy transition, which will benefit China as the world leader in non-fossil fuel alternatives.
Russia is directly benefiting from higher oil prices – another unintended consequence of the USrael war.
US itself is now suffering a 10% higher gas pump price. If the war goes on, the impact will be far worse. Gas cars represent 90% of US market and less than 50% in China.
The US doesn’t get to stranglehold oil to China, who is the largest buyer of oil in the world. Gulf Arab exporters will go broke without the Chinese market.
In fact, the US itself wants to sell oil to China.
Here is the ironic headline from Wall Street Journal on March 5:
US Has a Big Ask for China: Buy Less Oil From Russia, More From America – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent weighs pushing the tricky trade-off along with other economic goals prior to the Trump-Xi summit.
The low-IQ “commentators” celebrating US energy chokehold on China have no clue.
Should China give direct military assistance to Iran? Would China lose influence if it doesn’t?
Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns literally mocked China for being “a feckless friend” for not helping Iran to fight off the Americans.
It is beyond the pale for a “diplomat” to advocate a direct war between two nuclear powers for a third country thousands of kilometers from either.
The degeneration of the US ruling class has reached an absurd level.
Of course, that’s a trap for China.
For Beijing, the simple question is “why should I do anything you want me to do? Do you have my best interests in mind?”
The plain fact is China doesn’t have the power projection to win a war against the US in the Middle East.
Beijing’s military advantage over the US is absolute near its own shores but non-existent in West Asia – Tehran is 5,600 kilometers from Beijing.
The US has bases and client states there. China doesn’t.
If China joins the war in Iran, it will be stepping into a bear trap.
In geopolitics, the worst mistake is to let your opponent dictate the way the game is played. Beijing is too smart to fall for such transparent tricks.
On the other hand, if the US gets mired in a protracted war with Iran, China benefits by sitting on the sideline and watching the US drain its gold and blood.
Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake. And Washington is making the mother of all mistakes.
There is an old Chinese saying – 坐山观虎斗, which translates as “sit on mountain top and watch the tigers fight”.
The US won two world wars by doing that and joining the fight when the “tigers” were exhausted.
China won’t get drawn into a conflict that is not a core interest. Instead, it is exercising strategic patience by sitting on the “mountain top” and watching the tigers fight.
The posture is not one of passive inertia, but of active restraint. Beijing secures for itself the one commodity most valuable in geopolitics – time.
The smartest China experts in the US realize this. Oriana Skylar Mastro, a former Pentagon China expert and now a professor at Stanford, addressing Chinese military strategy and strategic patience at a Council on Foreign Relation panel last year in the below video –
Mastro specifically called out Pentagon has war-gamed scenarios exactly like the Iran war to drag China into an unwinnable fight with the US but Beijing never took the bait.
Instead, Beijing supports Iran in non-kinetic ways – its economic lifeline, Beidou navigation & guidance, intelligence sharing, and provision of critical war materiel such as rocket fuel, drone components, and computer chips.
Chinese military is also actively absorbing invaluable battlefield data in real time – US tactics, weapons, strength and vulnerabilities, electromagnetic signatures, communication protocols, gaps in missile and drone defense, and more.
The trove of information will prepare China well for the final showdown with the US in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.
Beijing is fully aware that such a showdown will likely come within the next decade. It is a strategic imperative for China to pick the time and place.
This final showdown with the US will be the deciding event for the world for the next century. A new world order depends on the outcome. So China must win.
There is no way China will take unnecessary risks before it is fully ready. The war in the Middle East now is mere noise in the grand scheme of things.
Finally, the relation between China, Russia and Iran is completely different from the relation between US and its vassals in Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea.
It is the opposite of the US-Israel servant-master relationship.
The China-Russia-Iran relationship is one between equal sovereigns, each with their own agency and independence. They are not treaty alliances.
For example, Iran chose to pursue closer ties with India before last year’s 12-day war, including the critical Chabahar port.
Iran rejected China’s offer to develop the port as part of the BRI program and gave the project to India. Naturally, Beijing is not thrilled but that was Iran’s decision to make.
India’s embrace of Israel (both literal and metaphysical with Modi’s recent trip to Tel Aviv) was a slap on Iran’s face.
However, Iran’s right to make its own judgement, however poor, is not questioned by China.
The multipolar world order China is advocating is to break the Western master-vassal model.
In terms of global influence, it is hard to imagine China losing influence and goodwill by not joining the war and starting WW3 versus a US that launches illegal wars and assassinates heads of states through deception.
One has to be delusional even to posit that ludicrous conclusion.
What to watch for at the April Trump visit to President Xi
The trip, announced by the White House already but unconfirmed by Beijing, is a barometer of China US relationship for years to come.
At the start of the war, Trump was hoping he would visit Beijing with a full deck of “trump cards” with his “successes” in Venezuela and Iran.
Less than 2 weeks in, it looks increasingly likely he will be going with a black eye and a bloodied nose.
I suspect Trump will beg President Xi to intervene with Iran and get him out of the mess, just like he already begged Putin in the phone call Trump initiated a few days ago.
Trump will beg President Xi to relax the chokehold on rare earth and critical minerals such as gallium and tungsten.
The US war machine clearly won’t work without such inputs that China monopolizes. And its stockpile is running dangerously low, possibly with 2 months left.
https://www.mining.com/us-has-two-months-of-rare-earth-supplies-left-scmp-reports/
Trump will beg President Xi to forget his stupid tariff war and buy some more US oil, soybean, and beef. There is a good chance that he’ll beg Beijing to allow Nvidia chips to go back to China.
Trump’s year of “global trade war” saw China record a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, the largest in human history by a wide margin.
Meanwhile, the US recorded the largest trade deficit in human history – also $1.2 trillion. I am not even sure how he managed to pull that off with the highest tariff regime since the 1930s.
Trump has a reverse Midas touch – the incredible ability to turn gold into shit.
And the trajectory has become even worse for Trump – China’s export surged 21% in the first two months of 2026 while the US struggles with inflation and job losses.
President Xi is too big a man to openly humiliate the 80-year-old manchild. But no doubt deep down inside, he looks at Trump with disdain and contempt.
As I wrote in an earlier essay – in 10 years, the US won’t be a threat to Beijing, and it won’t even pretend it can go to war with China.
