Turkey needs to wise up fast
Wed 10:03 am +00:00, 4 Mar 2026All eyes are on the extraordinary display of military might poured down by the combined forces of America and Israel as they pound Iran – and, of course, on the response from Tehran, which has seen missiles hit Western interests across the Middle East.
But rockets and drones are not the only threats facing the mullahs.
For all the unifying power of nationhood and the Shiite faith, there are major ethnic fissures not so far beneath the surface of Iran.
Civil war and perhaps even the break-up of the nation will be very much on the minds of the theocracy and forces such as the Revolutionary Guard that help sustain the clerics’s regime.
While is true that Persians boast a rich and ancient history and are the dominant force in Iran, they have comparatively narrow numerical majority among the population.
Iran’s diverse ethnic makeup stretches far beyond its Persian core
Despite its name, the Islamic Republic of Iran is really a multi-national empire stretching from Turkey and Iraq in the west across the southern borders of the old Soviet Union (nowadays Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) then to Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east.
Iran does not give out comprehensive details of the country’s ethnic make-up so all statistics are estimates.
But we know that, while Iran’s population is 93 million people, making it the second most populous country in the Middle East, only around 60 million people of them speak Persian (Farsi) as their main language.
The clear majority of these are in the central belt stretching south from the capital, Tehran, through ancient cities like Qom and Isfahan.
Iran’s numerous minority groups include Arabs, particularly in the south-west region bordering Iraq, and a small number from the Baloch tribe in the south east along the Pakistan border.
Azeri minority COULD reshape Iran’s political future
Then there are Kurds – a substantial minority straddling the borders with Turkey and Iraq – Christian Armenians and a declining handful of Jews.
But by far the biggest minority in Iran are the Turkic-speaking Azeris. With roughly 27 million people, there are three or four times more Azeris living in Iran than in neighbouring Azerbaijan.
Iranian Azeris are ethnic cousins to the Turks of Turkey. They speak, essentially, the same language. And in a world of shifting power blocs, particularly in the Middle East, this kinship is highly significant.
So long as Shiism united Azeris with other Iranians, their minority status was not a big issue but as the Islamic Republic loses its legitimacy and people stay away from mosques, then Azeri nationalism could swell.
Rise of Turkic bloc fuels fears of shifting loyalties
Energy-rich Azerbaijan, which has good relations with the West, might well be attractive to Iran’s Azeri populatoin. But could the small neighbour really control these millions of Azeris if they broke away?
That, I would argue, is beside the point, as a ‘greater Turkey’ continues to coalesce and Ankara – Tehran’s rival for regional dominance – amasses Turkic speaking friends and influence.
Nations including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Northern Cyprus, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have already come together to form the Organisation of Turkic States with Turkey itself, the largest and most influential, in the lead. Hungary and Turkmenistan have observer status.
With a shared ethnic history in the background, the Turkic nations are developing shared policies on issues such as oil and mineral exploration. There are also moves towards infrastructure links such as plans for a highway through the ‘Zengezur Corridor’, which links Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan enclave on the border with Armenia – and potentially on to Turkey itself.
Fears grow of unrest and wider regional fallout
If it comes off, the project would allow goods and people to travel overland between Beijing and London in a mere 15 days.
It is striking that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already appealed to Iran’s minorities to rise up and overthrow the Persian mullahs – as if a Western-style democracy were poised to arise, from nowhere, and fill the vacuum.
Netanyahu no doubt wants a weakened Iran at almost any price. Yet the rest of the world will be weighing up the fearful prospect of a bloody civil war in Iran, not to mention a further escalation of the global refugee crisis.
President Donald Trump’s advisers will be telling him as much.
But they will also be pointing to the swelling power of the Turkic bloc, which already controls significant energy reserves and oil and gas infrastructure. Geopolitically crucial, Turkey and its vast hinterland – stretching all the way to the steppes – acts as a fulcrum between east and west.
Ankara maintains good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. It now boasts one of the leading armament industries in the world.
Wisely, perhaps, Trump is on good terms with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and seems happy to embrace whatever opportunities the regional realpolitik throws up.
Yet Ankara is no friend to Israel: quite the opposite. And as Turkey weighs up the prospects of a new accord with 27 million Iranian Azeris – further power to its elbow – Netanyahu might be careful what he wishes for.
TAP – Israel is clearly hoping the Turks will be dumb enough to help their war against Iran, and look for some temporary prizes as they did in Syria.
At some point Turkey might cotton on to the fact thatTurkey will be next if Iran falls to the US/Israeli/NATO coalition.
Iran is not Iraq – not a recent country drawn out on a map by imperialists a century ago,an Arab country.
Iran is a 3000 year old civilisation that will fight to get rid of the American Neocon Zionists and their Israeli friends.
Turkey is a key country and will hopefully see the writing on the wall.
