SITREP 7/15/24: Crumbling NATO Buys Time for Broad European War – Simplicius
Tue 5:22 am +01:00, 16 Jul 2024 Zelensky arrived in the U.S. for NATO’s grand 75th anniversary summit, which turned out to be another sniveling disappointment, which was embellished with the usual carrot-on-a-stick promises that offered nothing concrete. Here ex-ambassador Chas Freeman goes one step further in declaring it a swan song for NATO:
But all the manic pledges of ‘air defense’ systems did make an indirect revelation as to the severe attrition of AD suffered by Ukraine of late. Many reports have given us indicators of this; for instance last week’s strike on Kiev, with satellite images showing an airport that housed Patriot systems being hit. Ukraine supporters continue to claim the elusive Western systems are not being found and taken out by Russia, but the manic resupply tells a different story. This recent strike on Kiev was particularly notable for how little AD was present, as an uncommon amount of videos showed Russian missiles hitting their targets. Further, missile trajectory maps were subsequently published with commentary stating that the strike was somewhat unusual as most of the Russian missiles pretty much went straight to their targets across Ukraine without the usual highly irregular winding patterns meant to misdirect UA intelligence and confuse national AD grid ops. These are all indicators that AD has been severely attritioned by Russian strikes, it’s just that, as with everything, we don’t see it because—unlike image-conscious Ukraine and NATO—Russian MOD doesn’t justify the release of constant images and videos of their normal mundane work, not to mention they prefer keeping up a professional OPSEC. But the summit did feature some entertainment, which included the worst presidential flub arguably in American history, right on cue to embarrass an already shame-faced Zelensky even more: The one interesting takeaway was the CFR’s Foreign Affairs mag releasing their vision of a compromise for Ukraine’s future: The eye-opening concept is revealing as to how the West likes its chances in Ukraine. In short, they propose following not the Korean DMZ model, but rather the German ‘Berlin Wall’ model. Though they beat around the bush somewhat, as it’s clearly a radical idea sure to ruffle feathers and frighten many Ukrainians, they in essence propose that Ukraine should decide which territory to give up, and then the remainder under Ukraine’s control should form its own new state that would be allowed to enter NATO proper. The consolation is that, just like West Germany was eventually reunified with East, they contend that Ukraine can ‘hold out’ under the promise of reunification with the territory they lost at some indeterminate future time:
As can be seen by the end, they even radically propose for this plan to be enacted ASAP to beat Trump to the punch, thus is their sheer terror at the fallout of a Trump presidency. The problem is, almost all of the above in practice sounds virtually no different to the previous Minsk accords. What possible incentive would Russia have in taking such a “deal” which freezes the conflict and brings NATO even closer to Russian territory—thus effectively achieving the complete opposite of Russia’s chief objectives in the war. Later in the piece, they even absurdly propose for a NATO ‘no fly zone’ to be enforced on the demarcating line. Right—that will go over well, the Kremlin is sure to welcome NATO stealth fighters peacefully ‘patrolling’ a split Donetsk/Lugansk territory. The only real danger is that, if such a plan represents the internal brainstorms of connected CFR deepstate bigwigs, then it can only mean they’re likewise considering forcibly freezing the conflict in such a way even should Russia reject the idea. In fact, months ago I wrote about this very idea from a different source: the proposal for Ukraine to “cut off” the taken territories and then fast-track its remaining rump-state into NATO. Technically, it can happen, especially owing to the fact that most Ukrainian citizens are now fine with giving up the lost territories, as per recent polls. The only issue would of course be the vetoing of such a move by saner NATO members like Hungary, but there could be mechanisms to deal with that, although, the danger for such a drastic plan to totally rip NATO apart and cause its collapse would likely be great; but in the minds of desperate Western globalists it would be a trade off: should Ukraine lose the war in decisively dramatic fashion, NATO would then too face its extinction. This is why, for instance, the Western banking cabal is so rabidly earnest in seizing stolen Russian sovereign funds despite the risk of it completely delegitimizing the entire Western financial system: they know that if Russia wins the war, this system will collapse anyway, owing to a runaway effect of de-dollarization and Russia’s leading role in the paradigm-breaking multipolarity grand awakening. Never underestimate the folly of evildoers facing their mortal demise. — One interesting digression: the article inadvertently validates Russia’s justifications for the war in a way that’s very telling about the West’s morally untenable position. First, in a bit of historical prefacing, they strangely admit that Norway not only faced no threat from Russia, but was in fact saved by Russia in World War Two, yet still illogically joined NATO to conversely threaten Russia:
Follow the stated logic above with me for a moment:
Does that make sense to anyone? Incomprehensibly, the article then makes another stunning revelation—that Putin very reasonably requested that NATO not station long range missiles on Russia’s border: How is that—even in the minds of the bitterest Russophobes—not a rationally reasonable request? For a leader of a country to ask a giant threatening alliance to not position its devastating long range weaponry on his country’s borders is something even the most cynical demagogue can understand. What can we say? It merely shows the intellectual bankruptcy and moral disingenuousness terminally plaguing the West. What has become evident in the wake of the NATO summit, however, is the overarching plan that the West has to goad Russia into a major European war by the end of the decade. The reason for this is well known: the globalist-financial interests who run the world and make all the top executive decisions in the West have decided there is no other way to ‘reset’ their system other than war. They tried to push the Great Reset onto humanity via Covid and Agenda 2030, but these plans have failed thus far—and so the only way left to reset the hyper-leveraged and terminally diseased global financial web is via war. Here they can kill several birds with one stone, as well: destroying ascendant Russia, which has recently taken fourth place in GDP PPP standings and is now leaving Europe in the dust, not to mention trailblazing a new golden path forward for all humanity with its leading role in the Multipolarity project. Thus, there are now increased agitations for war in the West. The latest revolves around plans to put long range missiles in Germany, to which Russia has now responded with plans to begin manufacturing long-time-banned intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Germany, of late, has been chafing at the bit, with repeated calls from top military officials from the reintroduction of conscription, as well as statements that the country must be prepared for large-scale war “by 2029”: Of course, as per their usual MO, the West conceals their own secret plans by projecting them onto Russia:
More:
Here is the official joint statement on the White House site: It reads, merely:
One astute Russian observer noted the deja vu:
In short, the plan by the globalist hawk faction appears to be to extend the Ukraine war as long as possible then ‘tie it off’ into a wider European by war goading Russia into attacking Europe after threatening and provoking Russian sovereignty with a variety of existential threats. The timeline could be to take the Ukrainian war to at least 2027-2028, then begin the next phase of the conflict. All the while, Russia remains economically subdued, and more importantly—Europe and Russia remain locked out from each other’s markets, while U.S. can maintain its economic supremacy unchallenged. — The problem with the above is that now that Trump is almost a shoe-in, and has chosen JD Vance as running mate—who is extremely anti-Ukraine—Europe is panicking as it dawns on them that they truly will be on their own in buttressing Ukraine come next year. The writing is on the wall. With the way things are going, their plan may fall apart over the course of the next few years as populist movements gain ascendancy in Europe. It’s already being talked about how the French 2027 elections will likely go to Le Pen’s camp—Macron’s “cheating” play bought some time for now, but the rising tide is obvious to see and likely unstoppable. How can such a fractured Europe be expected to indefinitely support Ukraine? — Important assorted items: Russian and Chinese cooperation continues increasing apace. Not only have the two superpowers conducted new maritime exercises together, but the Russian Deputy Defense Minister met with his Chinese counterpart, specifically commenting on how China is learning from the SMO:
This comes on the heels of the following news reported in MSM: — In fact, the integration of Russia and its multipolar partners is heading into a deeper direction than even I had anticipated. Recently two major interesting statements were made—the first by Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko to the BRICS parliamentary forum: In essence, they are pushing ahead with the BRICS Bridge program, creating an interoperable digital currency amongst the BRICS nations. For the worried conspiracy watchers out there—this is not a digital currency for civilians, but rather for the settlements of payments between countries and their central banks. But the far more interesting and weightier statement was made by Putin, who suggested that in the future, BRICS will get its own Parliament—presumably akin to that of the European Union: Now this is something to be worried about, on the surface, conspiracy-wise. We’ve talked for a long time here about how the BRICS represents a new global order away from the WEF-ruled Atlanticist authoritarian cabal of unelected bureaucrats. BRICS, we thought, was going to be a much more decentralized, non-coercive counterweight. But this seems to suggest that BRICS is in fact heading in the direction of a European model, perhaps—we don’t have the details quite yet. Even so, if that’s the case, I’m not worried yet myself, because the impulses behind the BRICS movement—its movers and shakers, its financial underpinning—is not the same as the West’s and its centuries’ old dynastic Old Money aristocracy. If anything, it could speed up BRICS development by having a slightly more centralized model where real regulation can be passed amongst the members, rather than just speculated on and left open ended. But we’ll have to wait and see. For those interested, here’s an entire discussion on this: Now for some frontline updates: Horrors continue to unfold for the AFU. A paramedic with the AFU’s 59th brigade has written a dire plea to Zelensky after her brigade suffered catastrophic losses:
In fact, the incident has sent shockwaves through the AFU such that it is being reported Syrsky himself has been dispatched to inspect the 59th in person. Likewise, Julian Ropcke has continued to sound the alarm about Russia’s nonstop breakthroughs and advances, which have steadily compounded since our last report: — An AFU unit in the Kupyansk direction reports that Russians captured over 200 of their men in the past month: Russian forces released videos of some of them: You can see where they were captured corresponds to the Kupyansk direction, as it was in Terny, which is in the north right on the Kharkov-Donetsk oblast contact line, not far from Svatov and Kremennaya. — Meanwhile ex-US ambassador to NATO has blatantly called for the immediate gangpressing of all 18-year olds in Ukraine: Meanwhile, the official account for the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces released images of some of their members, which included a mortarman who looks suspiciously like a teenage girl: Higher rez original so you can see her earring: And in fact, some reports claim that Ukraine is already mobilizing under-25s unofficially en masse—something you can see with your own eyes on the front. A sample was given of a mobik born in the year 2000:
Even MSM is beginning to cover this angle more and more: — Russian motorcycle tactics continue apace as well, and successfully so. New videos abound of major captures by way of motorbike that look like something out of Mad Max. The first is a bit from the Espanola Brigade, a mostly volunteer unit made up of wild soccer ultras: Then there was another video showcasing by far the largest scale motorcycle assault, perhaps in modern history, which led to the total re-capture of Urozhayne (Harvest), which had been taken by the AFU during last year’s grand summer counteroffensive: Given the Marine-looking flag at the end, this could be the Russian 40th Marines—who operate precisely on that front—and other detachments. — In another world first, Russia showcased the latest Fab-3000 UMPK glide-bomb, a size no other nation has ever been crazy enough to attempt in attaching wings to: — Russia is said to have tested a secret anti-drone laser on the Avdeevka front, though unfortunately as of now there is no further information:
— Business Insider reports that alarm bells are going off in NATO:
After talking to “dozens of defense experts” Business Insider has the following to say about how NATO would fair against Russian air defense networks:
With the final kicker:
So NATO admits, if it can’t get air superiority, it will be suffering mass casualties in an attritional ground war. The general analytical slant was bolstered by other recent MSM offerings, like this WSJ piece from last week which further describes how badly Western weaponry has been failing in Ukraine: Or this pair of National Interest articles, declaring the F-16 to be dead on arrival in Ukraine: — It’s now been confirmed by MSM that the reason we’re not seeing as much HIMARS and ATACMS activity is because Russia has finally been successfully hunting them down:
Recall that the HIMARS launcher truck fires both HIMARS andATACMS missiles, which means destroying the unit curbs both projectile systems. From the article:
Note what they say about Russian recon drones suddenly being an overwhelming problem:
My paid subscribers will know immediately why this dovetails with our reporting here, and why it is only here you’ll get the top information ahead of all other sources, particularly the MSM. Last week’s paid report featured a newly-leaked Russian drone production document which showed Russian recon drone production numbers, in particular the new versatile Supercam S350: The document showed over 2000 of the drones now being pumped out per the 2024 fiscal year in Russian factories. That means they are saturating Ukrainian skies, giving HIMARS no where to hide. It’s no surprise then, we’ve suddenly had a big draught of ATACMS strikes, with the “feared” system suddenly having totally vanished from the face of the earth. Here’s a new timely Supercam video from the Russian MOD:
With 900 of these being built per quarter—that’s 300 a month or 10 per day—the only bottleneck that will remain are the actual trained and experienced operators, and reconnaissance-fire-complex assets to strike what the Supercams actually identify and track. Likewise, my paid report focused on Russia’s growing AI capabilities, including an exclusive video of one of these Supercams being used with an AI assisted management program. Now, in light of this, comes a new scoop from Rezident UA which fills in some details and confirms our findings:
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