AI is Reaching the Dead on Arrival Minsky Moment |

AI is Reaching the Dead on Arrival Minsky Moment

Wed 9:36 am +00:00, 30 Sep 2026

posted by pete fairhurst 2

Source: https://www.winterwatch.net/2026/09/ai-is-reaching-the-dead-on-arrival-minsky-moment/

Anthropic is a total dog of a company

Spent $12.6bn to make $4.6bn in revenue in 2025

$7.33bn of which was compute costs

Operating loss of $8bn

Losses getting worse

Junk bond rating close at hand for Oracle. To paper this over, the credit agencies may be a day late and dollar short on the downgrade. If it came would force every single passive index fund to puke the paper all at once (see yesterday’s post on passive index funds).

Junk bond market in general has already melted down. Turn out the lights.

Regardless market is starting to say Project Jupiter won’t happen stranding $1 trillion Openai deliverables. There will be no Openai IPO at least at levels that they need.

The AI boom is an Epstein class fever dream. A lot of money is being fleeced in the process.

Ponzi finance: Leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus shows $42BN Net Loss, $518BN in unfunded spending commitments. IPO is DOA.

Grok adds color:

Anthropic’s obligations function more like a large, ramping portfolio of multi-year compute leases and take-or-pay contracts (peaking in intensity as capacity comes online around 2027–2028) than a traditional bond maturity ladder. The $518 billion figure from the prospectus is the best current public aggregate marker.