Whipsaw Effect: Trump Again Signals Off-Ramp as Ground Troop Build-Up Continues

Simplicius Mar 21

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Donnie Darko has again given mixed signals as to his schizophrenic intentions for the war. On one hand even more US troops are being sent to the region with “insider” whispers filtered through MSM channels suggest that boots-on-ground is definitely in the works, while on the other hand in another social media rant he’s strongly indicated a coming off-ramp, claiming the US is close to wrapping up the “successful” (read: disastrous) war:

Toward the bottom half of the rant, there’s mention of Hormuz being unnecessary to the US, and that its the job of other allies to guard it, a claim Trump repeated on camera later:

The US has gone from claiming total superiority of the region amid confident assertions about slamming open the Strait, to begging allies for help, to then back-peddling that the US actually doesn’t need the Strait at all. On display is the spineless buffoonery of the Israeli-owned administration struggling to improvise excuses on the fly after being humiliatingly rebuffed by Iran.

It should also be noted Trump finished off his rave session with another interesting little bit of geopolitical subversion:

Not only publicly shaming his top allies by calling them outright cowards, but admitting that NATO is a useless paper tiger. A day or two earlier he even again hinted that the US should look at withdrawing from NATO.

It’s clear that, as deplorable as his actions may be, much of what Trump is doing could not have been scripted better for accelerationists and Global South supporters alike. He’s literally tearing apart the very ligaments and sinews holding the global architecture together, and it’s an extremely positive thing. In fact, much of what he’s doing is accomplishing the chief long-time aims of MAGA and qAnon die-hards alike to such a degree that it nearly makes you wonder if there is more method to his ‘madness’. NATO is collapsing, if not already dead, the UN and top global institutions have lost all credibility, the US itself has been exposed and is being booted from the Middle East: the recent Iran war has led to US troop withdrawals everywhere, the flare-up of Iraqi resistance and opposition that could lead to permanent withdrawal down the line. That’s not to mention that the US has alienated all allies with various fiascos like Greenland, tariffs, Ukraine, and many more. It’s almost as if Trump is doing all this on purpose in the zaniest 5-Dimensional-chess way possible to accomplish long-time stated goals.

Of course, we know that’s not the case because the beholden nature of his relationship to Israel and the Adelsons is obvious and openly admitted to, as is his hatred of Iran.

In the wake of the attacks, it has come to light that Trump has a long history of hardline fanaticism when it comes to anti-Iranian attitudes. Newly uncovered interviews have shown he has been talking about taking Kharg Island as far back as the ‘80s:

In some ways you can even argue that the above proves Trump’s hatred for Iran isn’t necessarily even about Israel, though Israel’s hand in the latest “operation” is clear-as-day to see. Unless, of course, you argue that Trump has been controlled by Israel and the Adelsons since the ‘80s, which I haven’t heard. We’re forced to surmise that it’s a combination of long-held racialist views inspired by the standard neocon world paradigm along with contemporary donor indebtedness and potential blackmail.

As part of the latest whipsaw action the US Treasury has announced the lifting of sanctions against Iranian oil until April 19th.

This was after already having lifted some sanctions on Russian crude. It’s clear that Trump is terrified of the developing economic blowback, which is why the notions of “seizing Kharg Island” with US Marines remains perplexing. Presumably, the idea is to have some form of blackmail against the “Iranian regime”, but Iran can easily bomb the island itself to further wreck the global economy if it assesses that the island is lost to US control anyway.

This is mostly a moot point given that US’s ability to seize the island is highly contested being that Iran possesses the ability to simply carpet bomb the island with cluster munition IRBMs and SRBMs, dealing untold casualties of every kind onto ground forces massed into a ‘killbox’.

The other final off-ramp plan being discussed by Trump’s administration—according to rumors—is the seizing of Iran’s “enriched materials” via a Delta Force operation of some kind.

Now that we have a good bead on Trump’s psychological predilections we can say with certainty this must be an attractive option for him because it’s the ‘cleanest’ off-ramp and surefire way to declaring a big bold ‘victory’. It would require the least amount of assets and theoretically has the least risk as well. Who knows, maybe some backdoor “deal” can be struck just like in Venezuela, where Trump is allowed to seize the moment with his ‘Discombobulator’-armed forces to come in, clean up the Macguffin, then quickly wrap up the conflict.

On the other hand, Gulf allies appear to be growing increasingly bold in prolonging the war. Today news came that Saudi Arabia has reportedly opened up access for the US Airforce to use one of its key bases in attacking Iran, though this hasn’t been confirmed as of yet:

Iran’s attacks on US bases in the Gulf were heating up, and the US needed expanded access and overflight permissions. Saudi Arabia agreed to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif, in Western Saudi Arabia, to the Americans, multiple US and western officials familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

One commentator wonders whether Gulf allies really want to travel down that road:

70-80% of water in the UAE and SA comes from desalination plants

With the 3 largest producing 30-40% of their water – they are 15 shahed drones away from extinction

Iran hasnt targeted those but probably would in an existential battle

The Guardian makes an interesting historical comparison, highlighting the decline of the British Empire as tokenized by the Boer War of 1899:

Eventually, might did prevail. Britain won the Boer war, but it was a hollow victory that took the best part of three years to achieve and came at a high cost. The blow to British prestige – coming at a time when its global hegemony was under threat from fast-growing countries such as the US – was severe. Far from highlighting the extent of Britain’s power, it exposed its limitations.

A century and a quarter later, the US risks being embroiled in its equivalent of the Boer war. What should have been a walkover threatens to become a prolonged conflict. The Iranians are using guerrilla tactics, just as the Boers did, with much success. There is little doubt that, in the end, superior US and Israeli firepower will prevail, but at what price?

The author correctly notes Trump’s lack of good choices—by overreaching, Trump has already ensured that either one of two exits still leaves the US worse off than before the ill-fated decision to spark this war:

So Trump faces a tricky choice. He can end the war now and claim the US has achieved its war aims, though that would mean leaving the regime in place in Tehran. Or he can prolong the conflict, thereby increasing the risks of economic pain – and a political backlash – at home. The former is the better option, though even then it would be a pyrrhic victory, demonstrating both the US’s strengths and its weaknesses.

The author forgot to mention one thing: exiting now with a false victory does not merely “leave the regime in place”: it leaves in place an arguably much stronger, more hard-line, younger, vengeful “regime”. And biggest of all: it leaves in place an Iranian population that has now been completely disillusioned by the so-called American ‘savior’. Multiple reports have now asserted that even the Western-leaning dissident population in Iran has now given up on the West due to the perceived barbarity of the US’s attacks against the Iranian people, rather than solely against the regime—not to mention Trump’s utter callousness in prosecuting it all.

Who would have guessed it?

Now, an “invisible” US F-35 has been effectively destroyed, with US admitting the pilot was hit by “shrapnel” and had a “hard landing” after the plane was seen being hit by an IR missile in an Iranian-released video.

Likewise Qatar has officially admitted to the extensive damage to the world’s largest LNG terminal:

QatarEnergy @qatarenergy Providing an update on the damage from the missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue – Extensive damage to our 8:21 PM · Mar 19, 2026 · 498K Views 66 Replies · 611 Reposts · 1.6K Likes

– Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure

Now all kinds of catastrophic scenarios are being floated by the world’s top energy experts, should the closure of Hormuz remain in force for even a few more weeks.

Someone summarized the situation aptly—to paraphase:

Iran has survived decades of sanctions, but the world could not survive two weeks of Iranian sanctions.