Is Marcos’ India deal really in the Philippines’ best interests?
Wed 4:23 pm +00:00, 6 Aug 2025Bong Bong (Ferdinand Marcos 2), the incumbent President of the Philippines has struck a trade deal with India this week, which includes military cooperation.
China will be shocked indeed, as this potentially pits India onto the side of the US in a proxy Philippine war, presumably China the only potential enemy.
It makes a potential local war into a potential wider scale war in the region if India is signing on.
Digong (former President Duterte), whose policy was cooperation with China rather than open hostility, has been despatched to prison in The Hague, while his daughter Sarah who would win an election today against Bong Bong, is under threat of an impeachment trial in the Philippine Senate. She would continue the China-friendly policies of her father, if elected, but the warmakers seem determined to bar her way using lawfare in order to secure the warfare they secretly desire.
TAP – India is annoying the US by buying Russian oil paying in Rupees. Maybe Modi feels the need to give Trump a sop with his Philippines/India pact.
I am not sure it is in India’s interests to do this, or the Philippines’ best interests. Maybe Sarah Duterte can survive all the lawfare attacks coming her way, win the next election, which is not for three years, and keep China friendly and non-aggressive, despite US provocations. And India can mind its own business.
The US on the other hand is delighted to put the Philippines in a military fix, and bring proxy war with China, involving India and the Philippines, nearer.
Has Marcos done nothing less than sign his country into a needless future regional proxy war against China? No wonder the US is so delighted with the Marcos/Modi pact. See video below.
This is an extract from a FIlipino military paper written by a military expert, envisioning an effective defence against any potential invaders of the Philippines. The Japanese were never able to comfortably hold down the Philippines in WW2 suffering huge losses to guerilla type warfare. The author sees that the country needs to get more modern missiles and drones into the country’s defence capabilities, which can be fired, without the need for expensive platforms. Written in 2022. (Coastal Defence as a Philippine Army MIssion by Selwyn Alojipan)
Deception, Persuasion, and/or Intimidation Missions
After the Philippine Army has effectively and consistently practiced and demonstrated its
doctrines of rapid mobility and enduring persistence in isolated islands of the archipelago,
including successfully controlling the maritime battlespace around it, it will also be desirable to
perform this skill for propaganda and deterrence purposes.
By that time in the future, most of the criminal and foreign threats to the country will
have already learned of the capabilities of the AFP in conducting coastal defense or sea-control
missions and may opt to either (1) avoid confrontation with the AFP altogether, or (2) attempt to
conduct covert intrusions, infiltration, transits, occupations, exfiltration, trafficking, and other
illegal activities in defiance of the Philippine government. Large-scale, high-intensity, invasion-
level foreign army assaults on the Philippines may also be possible but it would not be a
probable occurrence on the spectrum of conflict scenarios.
(TAP – That might be changing if the US pushes the Philippines into a proxy war with China)
To prevent or deter any hostile group’s attempt to enter and take control of any portion of
the Philippine Archipelago during the rest of the 21st Century, the AFP must be able to
demonstrate that it can secretly deploy advanced weapons on any of its islands or coastal areas
and launch precision-guided weapon (PGW) attacks on hostile units it has detected, encountered,
and monitored. These hostile groups might be in the form of local insurgents, international
terrorists, amorphous criminal syndicates, clandestine foreign agents, or conventional foreign
military forces (ships, aircraft, and soldiers).
Sun Tzu’s Art of War gives this advice to armies: “Appear weak when you are strong, and
strong when you are weak.” It is thus prudent for the AFP to be able to conduct a range of sea-
control missions either covertly (in secret and with full surprise) or overtly (with full media
coverage and cinematography). The ability to launch advanced weapons and destroy intruders
without their knowledge will prove very intimidating and dissuading to many small and less-
lavishly equipped hostile forces. It will also introduce uncertainty into the minds of enemy
military planners because these mobile AFP sea-control units can make it harder for enemy units
to accomplish their missions (whatever these may be) inside Philippine territory. Sometimes the
best defense is to create believable propaganda (backed up by some real accomplishments) to
make the enemy back down and feel unsure of the outcome.
TAP – India is annoying the US by buying Russian oil paying in Rupees. Maybe Modi feels the need to give Trump a sop with his Philippines/India pact.
I am not sure it is in India’s interests to do this, or the Philippines’ best interests. Maybe Sarah Duterte can survive all the lawfare attacks coming her way, win the next election, which is not for three years, and keep China friendly and non-aggressive, despite US provocations. And India can mind its own business.
The US on the other hand is delighted to put the Philippines in a military fix, and bring proxy war with China, involving India and the Philippines, nearer.
