Donald Trump does not want to kill millions of Iranian civilians. But Trump has a gun to his head and time is running out. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is getting dangerously low, long-term interest rates are edging up, and a global oil shock is just around the corner. What is Trump going to do?

For all practical purposes, the war is lost. What was supposed to be a surgical regime change operation followed by massive public demonstrations, has become an agonizingly long period of adjustment during which the leader of the “world’s only superpower” acclimates to the new reality that America has ended its hegemony in a war it didn’t need to fight with an enemy that meant us no harm.

The issue that is never covered in the media is the simple fact that the US military bases that are spread across the Gulf and Middle East are the cornerstone of American primacy. As more of those bases are obliterated by Iran’s precision hypersonic ballistic missiles, US regional dominance diminishes leaving a power vacuum that has been filled by Tehran. This is the new order in the region and unless Trump can figure out a way to turn back the clock, there will be no reason to pretend that the US remains the regional guarantor of security. And if the US can no longer protect the many oil-producing countries from threats, then there is no need to denominate oil sales in dollars or recycle those revenues into US Treasuries. In short, Trump’s folly in Iran has precipitated the most devastating geopolitical shift in the last century which represents the greatest strategic defeat in America’s 250 year-long history. Nothing else comes close.

Now that we understand the stakes, we should be able to grasp why Trump’s threats to use nukes on Iran should not be dismissed as empty bluster. Simply put, Trump is running out of runway and must decide quickly what course of action to take. But –as we all know– he has already exhausted his repertoire of conventional weapons which have not persuaded Iran to meet his demands or to make concessions. So what can he do?

Yes, what can he do? That is the question that should raise the blood pressure of every rational American watching this farce unfold, because realistically Trump only has two options from which to choose: He can either withdraw and accept defeat or use nuclear weapons. There is no third option.

That is why Americans should be so concerned, because our ‘riverboat gambler’ president is liable to make a rash decision (out of pure desperation) that will reshape the course of history. Trump is not going to walk away in disgrace. He’s much more likely to do something risky and infinitely more treacherous. Check out this blurb from author Andrew Anglin who figured out what was going on way back in April:

There are decades worth of papers showing that what we’ve seen happen in this war is exactly what would happen: ballistic missile retaliation capable of devastating the US bases in the region and crippling the West Coast Gulf states for decades by destroying ports, oil fields, and water desalination plants, successful strikes on Israel, and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Further, everyone who studied the situation at all knew that this would lead to a global economic crisis, with the strangulation of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium.

It is completely impossible that the Israelis believed “kill the Ayatollah and democracy will sprout limbs and crawl up out of the Persian Gulf … Bibi is a lot of things, but he’s not retarded. The Mossad has all of the electronic spying data and the best human intelligence of any intelligence agency in the world. They’re not going to fall for bullshit any first year polisci grad student would laugh at.

Consider the current situation: Iran has done what they were obviously going to do and is winning the war. There is no amount of bombing that can stop them from sending missiles at Gulf nations, US bases, Israel, and any unapproved vessel attempting to pass through the strait. Even completely leveling the cities, Gaza-style, will not end this ability Iran has.

The possibilities being presented on the podcast circuit are that Trump can either give up and surrender, meeting most or all of Iran’s demands, including removal of US troops from the region, an end to Israeli aggression, and allowing Tehran to charge a toll on the Strait, or he can keep bombing until he runs out of bombs while the global economy collapses, and Iran will remain in the driver’s seat indefinitely.

If we take this view, then we have to ask why it is that Bibi pushed so hard for this war. Either of the two stated potential outcomes puts Israel in a much worse situation than they were before the bombing.

So then: what was Bibi’s plan?

The only possible answer to that question is that Bibi planned to set the stage for a nuking of Iran. Not just a single nuke dropped on Tehran, mind you, as that wouldn’t really solve anything, but dropping 15-20 nukes and attempting to completely end the civilization. Iran War: The Nuclear Elephant in Trump’s War Room, The Unz Review

Anglin makes an excellent point. By any objective standard, Israel is in a worse position today than it was before the war. Iran has an iron grip on the world’s most important waterway and US power has been severely eviscerated by damage to its military bases. So why is Bibi so confident that the situation will improve and that Israel will prevail. And why has no one in the Israeli media criticized the present state of affairs in which Iran has emerged as the de facto regional superpower? Are they incapable of objective analysis, or do they know something we don’t know?

What they know is that someone who features as large in the Epstein Files as Trump is not going to suddenly go off script and do something patriotic like withdraw American Forces and bring this nightmare to an end. No. Trump will do as he is told and order the cataclysm that Anglin anticipates. That’s where all of this is headed. Why else would Israelis be so sure they’re going to win when all the evidence suggests otherwise. Here’s Anglin again:

The easiest path to a “justified” nuclear strike would be a 9/11 style event staged by Israel on US soil. This would probably get Trump to push the button. However, if that doesn’t work, it seems likely if not probable that at some point, Israel will just manufacture some atrocity on their own soil and say “our existence is being threatened” and launch the nukes.

Netanyahu would then resign and be pardoned by the Israeli court.

Obviously, I don’t know that this will happen…. There are any number of unforeseen things that could occur and prevent this. However, right now, it is quite likely that the Iran War ends with a large scale nuclear strike on the country. Iran War: The Nuclear Elephant in Trump’s War Room, The Unz Review

Naturally, I hope Anglin is wrong because I think a nuclear attack would be unimaginably horrible for Iran and the world. Unfortunately, I find Anglin’s logic very hard to dispute, after all, Trump has dragged this conflict on for months with the full understanding that US missile strikes were achieving nothing, but he has continued to pursue the same failed policy regardless. Why?

It’s because his only real choices are to flee or use nukes. The value of the tit-for-tat strikes is they create the impression that the US is making headway in achieving its strategic objectives when, in fact, the opposite is closer to the truth. Nothing is gained by these attacks. At no point, has Iran loosened its grip on the Strait nor shown the slightest sign of weakening. The Iranian leadership is more emboldened and resolute than ever. They are unwavering in the defense of their country. Here’s Anglin one last time:

It would be unfair to say the podcasters are not talking about the potential of nuclear war. It does get mentioned. However, the fact that this has to have been Bibi’s plan is unaddressed. I’ve seen no one say it. And yet, there is no other way to work it through logically.

I have heard some of these commentators address the idea that Bibi couldn’t possibly have believed the “popular uprising” theory, and their answers are that maybe he wanted to degrade Iran, which is definitely impossible given that he would have known exactly this current thing would happen, or that he was worried about his court cases, which is also ridiculous, given that he can hold that off with wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank.

It is simply a factual matter that the only possible thing Bibi could have been thinking was that he would be able to trigger a series of events that would lead to either Trump nuking Iran or Israel being “justified” in using their own nukes. He would prefer the former, but will settle for the latter. Iran War: The Nuclear Elephant in Trump’s War Room, The Unz Review

I think he’s right. This was always the plan. Bibi doesn’t want regime change or populist revolution or US control over Iran’s vast resources. No. He wants Iran turned into Gaza. That’s what this is all about. He wants to see Iran blown off the map, obliterated, a smoldering pile of rubble. Israel is not driven by “strategic objectives”. Don’t make me laugh. Israel has no strategy. Israel leapfrogs from one confrontation to the next inflicting as much death and destruction as possible without the slightest thought of an end state where peace and security can flourish. Bibi believes in permanent war; a perennial state in which Amalek lies around every corner and Israel must constantly initiate hostilities in the name of “self-defense”. That’s how Israel operates.

Bibi does not want a functioning Iran. He wants another Nagasaki, another Hiroshima; devastation as far as the eye can see. This is Netanyahu’s warning to those who would dare to defy the State of Israel. Now he simply needs to create the proper environment (false flag) for making a nuclear attack seem justifiable. That shouldn’t be too hard for an ‘old hand’ like Bibi.

Oh, and he needs to make Trump to do the deed. On that point, there can be no debate.