Two more weeks and America’s oil runs out. Will Trump’s brain engage in time?
Fri 12:58 am +00:00, 31 Jul 2026Transcript. You can read and watch at same time if you prefer.
0:055 secondsHi everybody. Today’s Thursday, July 30th, 2026 and our dear friend, our brother Pepeco is here with us. Welcome Pepe.
0:1414 secondsWell, with you all always welcome you, Nema here from the heart of NATO.
0:2121 secondsSo, let’s get to the highway to hell again. [laughter] 0:3030 secondsIs that Portuguese? Exactly. [laughter] 0:3939 secondsYeah. Let me let me start Pepe with one of the you you have two new articles.
0:4545 secondsOne of them the first one is arguing that Iran is dismantling the entire American military ecosystem. And what is
0:5454 secondsthe point that you’re making in this article?
0:5757 secondsThe point is is what’s driving a sentcom and and uh and the people in Washington
1:051 minute, 5 secondscompletely nuts according to the latest meeting with Trump in the room with the generals uh with those idiots around
1:141 minute, 14 secondsHexet Rubio etc. And Trump lost his marbles completely. He went totally
1:221 minute, 22 secondsberserk because the generals basically were trying to say to him, “Look, all our options are from bad to worse to
1:301 minute, 30 secondstotal disaster and we are being decimated and our bases are no longer
1:381 minute, 38 secondsthere or on the way to extinction.” And this is the key point of this
1:451 minute, 45 secondscolumn. And of course I used uh an old rock and roll metaphor quoting uh
1:541 minute, 54 secondspinball wizard by the who. And so now it’s upside down in the in the song which is an absolutely marvelous song.
2:022 minutes, 2 secondsIt’s about a young kid who is a pinball wizard but and he’s a deaf dumb and blind kid. So now we have a pinball
2:112 minutes, 11 secondswizard in reverse because we have let’s say a Persian kid who’s turning the bully
2:212 minutes, 21 secondsdeaf dumb and blind by playing his pinball wizard. So the object of of the
2:282 minutes, 28 secondspinballs is a sententcom and the whole uh infrastructure ecosystem security and
2:362 minutes, 36 secondsaggressiveness of the US in the Persian Gulf and in other parts as well that includes their bill in Iraq and as we
2:432 minutes, 43 secondshave been seeing Jordan which is being b the two bases in Jordan at least are being bombed literally every day after
2:512 minutes, 51 secondsday. So th this is uh it’s not even 2 to1.
2:582 minutes, 58 secondsRemember the 2:1 Iranian strate military strategy. If you attack us, we’re going to attack our
3:053 minutes, 5 secondsattack is going to be double. Now it’s even more. And now they are not even waiting for American attacks. They’re
3:133 minutes, 13 secondstaking the initiative. So this has changed uh the military playbook completely. Iran is going on the offensive.
3:213 minutes, 21 secondsIt’s as it’s is as if they are seeing that there is a window now to inflict
3:303 minutes, 30 secondsmaximum humiliation to the Americans because they know that this window is not going to last very very long.
3:373 minutes, 37 secondssooner or later because Trump is constrained by the timelines and because the Iranians once again are
3:453 minutes, 45 secondsrunning the clock something that we have discussed over and over again and you discuss with your other guests as well
3:523 minutes, 52 secondsand the clock basically I uh I wouldn’t say stop but
3:593 minutes, 59 secondsthe 5 seconds to midnight in terms of this particular clock is mid August which is essentially a little over two
4:074 minutes, 7 secondsweeks from now. It’s the date when the depletion of the strategic petroleum
4:134 minutes, 13 secondsreserves of the US uh reaches a real
4:194 minutes, 19 secondsout of control red light and the instant impact on the American economy and on
4:274 minutes, 27 secondsthe global economy is going to be absolutely massive because there won’t be any more American oil dumped on the market to contain prices.
4:374 minutes, 37 secondsAnd and if we look at what’s happening nowadays uh in the oil market there there are several
4:464 minutes, 46 secondsinterconnected points which is uh export from Kazakhstan basically half of what they usually
4:544 minutes, 54 secondsexport. Kazakhstan is a big oil exporter and American majors are invested in uh export of oil in in Kazakhstan.
5:035 minutes, 3 secondsWe have the partial closure of the Bab Almandab. Of course, the Bab Almandab is not closed, but it’s closed to
5:125 minutes, 12 secondsSaudi Arabian oil exports. So, they have to go through
5:195 minutes, 19 secondsinsurance hell considering that Lloyds is not insuring anybody uh leaving from Yamu port for instance or other Saudi ports uh via the Red Sea.
5:325 minutes, 32 secondsSo they have to pay extra insurance to go via the Swiss canal. They have to pay uh the the trip is practically doubles.
5:425 minutes, 42 secondsThe costs are you know go to the roof because you have to circumn Africa to get to Asia.
5:515 minutes, 51 secondsAnd of course nothing practically nothing is moving in the straight of Hormuz. What is moving is
5:595 minutes, 59 secondsselected tankers going to China and there was an exception in this past 24
6:056 minutes, 5 secondshours which was that was quite u it’s predictable in a sense but it’s a a
6:136 minutes, 13 secondsoneoff case it’s an LNG tanker going from Qatar to Pakistan and guess
6:226 minutes, 22 secondswhat happened the Pakistanis and the Qataris lobby the Iranians please at least this tanker. So this this doesn’t
6:306 minutes, 30 secondsmean that the Iranians are going to free these tankers going to anywhere in Asia
6:366 minutes, 36 secondsto keep even if they go through uh the Iranian territorial waters. So
6:446 minutes, 44 secondspractically nothing is flowing out of the straight of Hormuse.
6:486 minutes, 48 secondsSo, if you add this all up, uh, Anema, there’s absolutely no logical
6:566 minutes, 56 secondsexplanation for the price of oil to go down or to still being contained or both, which is the case now.
7:057 minutes, 5 secondsIt’s completely artificial. And obviously, the Americans are doing it.
7:107 minutes, 10 secondsIn uh roughly 20 days from now, they won’t be able to do this anymore.
7:167 minutes, 16 secondsSo that’s when the real real h economic cris financial economic
7:237 minutes, 23 secondsgeoeconomic crisis affecting everyone is going to kick in.
7:307 minutes, 30 secondsSo in parallel to all that, we have this decimation of the American
7:377 minutes, 37 secondsinfrastructure all across the Persian Gulf in the GCC nations uh in air in Iraq and in uh and
7:467 minutes, 46 secondsthere there was even a missile that went to Egypt as well.
7:537 minutes, 53 secondsSo this means what? The axis of resistance is firing on all cylinders everywhere and virtually nonstop.
8:038 minutes, 3 secondsSo it’s no wonder that this last meeting in in Washington was an absolute disaster because and on top of it, they
8:108 minutes, 10 secondsdon’t have even a plan. It’s not even a plan B we’re talking about. They don’t even know what this war is all about.
8:188 minutes, 18 secondsAnd okay, what are we doing this?
8:228 minutes, 22 secondsIf you ask Trump, the secretary forever wars, Marco Rubio, any other idiot, each
8:288 minutes, 28 secondsone has his own theory, which proves once again that socalled
8:348 minutes, 34 seconds[snorts] 8:358 minutes, 35 secondsuh uh top of the line uh Trump inner circle,
8:428 minutes, 42 secondsbasically uh you know, the the bare bones of this administration, they are absolutely they have no idea
8:508 minutes, 50 secondswhat they’re period. And now and now it’s crystal clear.
8:558 minutes, 55 secondsSo So no, when you when you get both factors, the imminent
9:029 minutes, 2 secondsoil crisis, economic crisis, uh bond market crisis, you name it, everything pile of derivatives collapsing, etc. And
9:119 minutes, 11 secondsyou have the fact that the United States is being rendered literally deaf, dump,
9:179 minutes, 17 secondsand blind all across West Asia. It’s no wonder now which once again we we
9:259 minutes, 25 secondscontinue to be in a very slippery slope because considering that the president of the United States is is basically a
9:329 minutes, 32 secondsderanged narcissist megaloman megalomaniac all bets are off on what he could do next or order next. He may
9:429 minutes, 42 secondsorder something completely absurd that his own generals will refuse to execute. That’s also quite possible.
9:529 minutes, 52 secondsAnd all his uh threats which apparently they stopped for the past 24 hours or less than 48 hours that bomb the hell out of Iran, launch the gates of hell.
10:0410 minutes, 4 secondsHis own expression and all that.
10:0610 minutes, 6 seconds[snorts] 10:0710 minutes, 7 secondsThis this it didn’t vanish. It’s still there as as an option. Very very dangerous. It’s a very very dangerous
10:1410 minutes, 14 secondsmoment. But but just to go a little uh beyond of what we’re talking about now,
10:2210 minutes, 22 secondswhich is uh it’s one of the key aspects that fascin fascinates me completely, which is the role of Yemen now, the new
10:3110 minutes, 31 secondsrole of Yemen in this whole drama and the conversation that I had with one of my good Yemen friends when he
10:3910 minutes, 39 secondsexplained to me why now, why Yemen now is entering the chat.
10:4510 minutes, 45 secondsliterally with this blockade against a blockade, but a blockade only against Saudi Arabia. A and the the larger part
10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsof his answer was that Yemeni intelligence of course in conjunction with Iranian
11:0311 minutes, 3 secondsintelligence and also of course with Iraqi intelligence, they understood that the Americas are ready to launch a sort of gates of hell
11:1211 minutes, 12 secondsoperation. But not only against Iran but against the whole axis of resistance. So
11:1911 minutes, 19 secondsthe Yemenist their own decision taken in Sana with of course the political
11:2711 minutes, 27 secondscouncil they discussed this with their own parliament and of course under the supervision of Abdul Malik al- Houthi.
11:3611 minutes, 36 secondsOkay. So now we we start our blockade of Baba Elmab but selectively and we’re causing an extra headache to the
11:4511 minutes, 45 secondsAmericans and to the Saudis at the same time.
11:4911 minutes, 49 secondsSo I I’m sure uh you and our audience you have seen that the Sa American Saudi response
11:5811 minutes, 58 secondsinvolved not only bombing Yemen but also bombing Iraq bombing the the hash alshabi the uh popular mobilization forces in Iraq.
12:1112 minutes, 11 secondsBig big mistake first of all because it proves to all of them that their interpretation was right. The Americans wanted to attack us in the first place.
12:2012 minutes, 20 seconds[snorts] Big operation, gates of hell, small operation, whatever. But they wanted to attack us anyway. So, okay.
12:2612 minutes, 26 secondsSo, now we counterattack. So, expect hardcore being launched by the Yemenes
12:3412 minutes, 34 secondsand by uh the PMUs, the protection, the popular mobilization forces in Iraq at
12:4212 minutes, 42 secondsthe same time. So now they are already in the war. The only one that he has not entered yet is He has Hezbollah because
12:4912 minutes, 49 secondsof course they carefully calculate the moment when they want to, you know, go really hardcore. But this could happen sooner rather than later.
13:0213 minutes, 2 secondsOnce again, Anima immensely dangerous because the the war is expanding instead of being contained.
13:1213 minutes, 12 secondsH how do you find the role of Saudi Arabia and the way they’re opening two fronts in front of them and before them?
13:2013 minutes, 20 secondsWhy do they need that? And are they doing this under the pressure from the United States or they’re doing it they
13:2813 minutes, 28 secondshave you know they have reached to some sort of understanding that they have to do this and because I don’t see anything
13:3613 minutes, 36 secondsgood happening to Saudi Arabia if they want to escalate that they’re going to be crushed under the you know the attacks from Iran or from the United
13:4413 minutes, 44 secondsStates because the two are fighting each other and they’re going to be crushed in the middle.
13:5113 minutes, 51 secondsWell, Nema, suicidal does not even begin to describe it. We can because the
13:5813 minutes, 58 secondssystem is so opaque. As you know, this is a one-man decision, mega oligarchy.
14:0614 minutes, 6 secondsOkay, there’s an oligarch, a family oligarchy, of course, but there’s only one that decides and it’s MBS.
14:1514 minutes, 15 secondsNobody knows for sure. And in fact, because the system is completely opaque, especially in our case, foreign
14:2414 minutes, 24 secondsobservers, it’s absolutely impossible to know what drove him to make such a foolish
14:3114 minutes, 31 secondsdecision. If it was a lot of pressure from um the Americans, if the Americans
14:3914 minutes, 39 secondsare saying if you don’t do that, your money is going to be frozen. Quite possible. or the Americans saying if you
14:4614 minutes, 46 secondsdon’t do this if you don’t do that it’s going to be regime change and and our man Prince Naif the CIA guy is going to
14:5314 minutes, 53 secondsbe the new ruler so these are all possible scenarios Neima I’m not saying this is what
15:0115 minutes, 1 secondhappened but consider that none of us has access and when I mean one of us means Americans as well nobody knows what happens at the top of the house of
15:0815 minutes, 8 secondssouth period these are quite possible scenarios and of of course desperation
15:1615 minutes, 16 secondsbecause he might have considered if I do this I’m going to have American support and yes he did this bombing in Iraq was
15:2615 minutes, 26 secondsan American Saudi operation and of course uh Trump even lied about
15:3515 minutes, 35 secondsit which the the giveaway was Trump lying about it. Trump actually said in
15:4215 minutes, 42 secondsone of these stupid posts as this was an American uh Saudi attack he was coordinated with the current uh useful
15:5215 minutes, 52 secondsidiot the billionaire new prime minister of Iraq remember that he went to the US everybody said ah he’s a the new guy
16:0016 minuteshe’s very cool blah blah blah blah blah he came back you know they gave they gave him a civil war and they gave him
16:0816 minutes, 8 secondsan attack on against Iraqi soil and trying to split the government from
16:1616 minutes, 16 secondsthe popular mobilization units hashtal shabi which is something that the Americans always did for instance the
16:2416 minutes, 24 secondslast time I was in Iraq two years ago last year I was in Iran Lebanon and Yemen but the year before I also went to
16:3116 minutes, 31 secondsIraq so the great thing is that I managed to visit the axis of resistance as a whole within the past two years. So
16:4016 minutes, 40 secondsI learned a lot from them and I learned a lot about the internal problems, contradictions, etc. in each of these
16:4816 minutes, 48 secondsnations. For instance, in Iraq, I was talking to at the time the the previous prime minister Sudini, very nice guy. Uh
16:5716 minutes, 57 secondshe received us in the prime minister’s office. Wonderful. We had wonderful treatment.
17:0417 minutes, 4 secondsUh they showed us around. I talked to many of his advisors. By the way, his advisor, Nema, they are Atlanticists.
17:1217 minutes, 12 secondsYou can imagine advisers of so prime of Iraq and the guys are Atlanticists using WhatsApp all of them. Absolutely nuts.
17:2117 minutes, 21 secondsAnyway, but there’s there was still some margin of maneuver because although they
17:2817 minutes, 28 secondsare not in favor of the hashtal shabi of the units, they cannot antagonize them
17:3617 minutes, 36 secondsbecause they are linked to the ministry of defense. They are extremely popular.
17:4117 minutes, 41 secondsIt’s no wonder they’re called popular mobilization units. They are popular all over Iraq. And of course they count on
17:5017 minutes, 50 secondsunlimited support by grand ayatollahistani.
17:5517 minutes, 55 secondsSo obviously no government can go against them. This government with the with the new um billionaire prime
18:0418 minutes, 4 secondsminister from the start. One of his first acts was to put in jail several leaders of the harsh alshabi.
18:1618 minutes, 16 secondsAnd of course, the Americans are saying, “Look, you have to get rid of of them.
18:2118 minutes, 21 secondsYou have to whatever. Do whatever you do. Uh but they have to be neutralized, eliminated, whatever.”
18:2918 minutes, 29 secondsVery, very dangerous. But he could never in any circumstances say yes to an American uh Saudi Arabian
18:3918 minutes, 39 secondsattack on Iraqi soil. He would fall in two minutes.
18:4618 minutes, 46 secondsThere would be regime changing two minutes in Baghdad. [laughter] The time for people who cross the the halls of of the palace, you know.
18:5618 minutes, 56 secondsSo, uh this once again confirms that the Americans were trying to do something
19:0419 minutes, 4 secondslarge probably large scale all across the axis of resistance. Uh the revenge by the Iraqis is going to be really
19:1219 minutes, 12 secondshardcore because now the Iraqis they have a super beef against Saudi Arabia as much as the Yemenes.
19:2319 minutes, 23 secondsSo expect fireworks coming from Iraq and from Yemen against Saudi Arabia. Can you
19:3019 minutes, 30 secondspossibly imagine that? That idiot MBS never thought about that or he thought that he would get away
19:3819 minutes, 38 secondswith it and he thought that he would continue to play a double game. Ah I am part of the
19:4519 minutes, 45 secondsstabilizing force. We are discussing with Pakistan with Egypt with Turkey. We
19:5319 minutes, 53 secondsare behind the peaceful uh development theou he cannot hedge
20:0120 minutes, 1 secondanymore. Now it’s clear that he has his own aggressive game against a great deal
20:0820 minutes, 8 secondsof the actors of resistance even though against Iran they are in the back seat because the Pakistanis told them don’t
20:1620 minutes, 16 secondsdo anything stupid with Iran because we Pakistan are the mediators even though we have a military arrangement with you
20:2320 minutes, 23 secondsa pact that by the way was upgraded only a few weeks ago if you start anything absurd don’t count on us to help
20:3420 minutes, 34 secondsAnd this was confirmed to Larry and myself by the Pakistani mediators. We told the Saudis to stand down. But this
20:4320 minutes, 43 secondswas before this attack against Iraq Nema. So that changes the equation completely.
20:5220 minutes, 52 secondsMy understanding is the same that Pakistan doesn’t want these countries fighting each other. They of course basically they’re trying to do
21:0021 minuteseverything to bring the this the region together. But the problem is you know the United States has a lot of leverage
21:0821 minutes, 8 secondsin Saudi Arabia. I don’t know if you saw the report of axis reported on he knows it says that
21:1621 minutes, 16 secondsin fact it’s uh well you know that Nema it’s everything about Saudi Arabia is
21:2221 minutes, 22 secondsfake literally everything is fake uh starting with the numbers you have 20
21:2921 minutes, 29 secondsmillion Arabs in Saudi Arabia roughly I like to quote these uh numbers for several audiences so so people
21:3721 minutes, 37 secondseverywhere can have an idea of how fake and how fragile the whole thing in Saudi Arabia is. So we have more or less 20
21:4521 minutes, 45 secondsmillion Arabs, different tribes, very important over 100 tribes,
21:5321 minutes, 53 secondshistorically waring tribes. They are only kept more or less peaceful because
21:5921 minutes, 59 secondsof the iron hand of of course the security apparatus of the house of South with the MBS at the top. So okay let’s
22:0822 minutes, 8 secondssay more or less 20 million uh against the house of south we can say for sure probably
22:1722 minutes, 17 secondsmore than 90% of the population of those wearing tribes on top of that we have 10 million guest workers migrant workers
22:2622 minutes, 26 secondsthey don’t have a dog in this fight they don’t care as long as they have a job and get paid that’s it
22:3422 minutes, 34 secondslet’s look at what’s around Saudi Arabia You have 40 [snorts] million Yemenes
22:4122 minutes, 41 secondsultra weaponized and very hostile to Saudi Arabia including their border
22:5022 minutes, 50 secondswhere I was near the border last year. I was like one 120 kilometers from the Saudi borders very very close and they
22:5822 minutes, 58 secondswere always telling uh uh u you know our small group yes in many cases we are cousins for us this border doesn’t exist
23:0723 minutes, 7 secondswe do business with each other all the time you know we import stuff from Saudi Arabia via these borders but if one day
23:1423 minutes, 14 secondsthere is a destabilization Saudi Arabia these people our cousins on the other side of the border they’re not going to defend their government they’re going to
23:2223 minutes, 22 secondsbe with us. They’re our cousins after all. Okay, this is just an example.
23:2823 minutes, 28 seconds40 million Iraqis now [snorts] once again very very angry with Saudi Arabia and very well weaponized.
23:3923 minutes, 39 secondsUh this is not definitive but the hash al-Shabi and the the different u
23:4723 minutes, 47 secondsmilitias that compose the harsh alshabi and groups they are as well weaponized
23:5423 minutes, 54 secondsif not better weaponized than we have 90 million Iranians which look
24:0324 minutes, 3 secondsat Saudi Arabia said now we have to teach them several lessons.
24:0724 minutes, 7 secondsIs there any viable possibility for this thing to keep going on in Saudi Arabia? Of course not.
24:1424 minutes, 14 secondsYou just, you know, you need just a a glimmer of of fire somewhere and the whole thing could collapse in a matter
24:2224 minutes, 22 secondsof days even.
24:2724 minutes, 27 secondsSo they are playing with fire NBS and the people around him. And of course don’t forget there are a lot of American advisors to the House of South. Most of them are American advisers.
24:3824 minutes, 38 secondsAnd of course, the internal house of Sai Assad, a clash, princes that don’t like anything that they see in front of them.
24:4824 minutes, 48 secondsUm, avid to grab some sort of real power. And of
24:5524 minutes, 55 secondscourse, once again, the favorite CIA candidate to be the ruler of everything, Prince DF,
25:0325 minutes, 3 secondswho is by the way, uh, you know, I would say the most diplomatic way to put it.
25:0825 minutes, 8 secondsHe’s under some sort of house arrest, in fact.
25:1225 minutes, 12 secondsSo, it’s an immensely fragile. It’s a house of cards completely. And then they decide to
25:2025 minutes, 20 seconds[laughter] 25:2225 minutes, 22 secondsget on a war on two fronts.
25:2425 minutes, 24 secondsagainst Yemen, against Iraq. How could that possibly make sense? Right. Out of the question.
25:3425 minutes, 34 seconds[snorts] 25:3425 minutes, 34 secondsThe problem is what Axis reported Pepe is saying that the defense the Saudi
25:4225 minutes, 42 secondsdefense minister Prince Khaled bin Salman, which is the brother of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, right? He had a meeting on Wednesday
25:5025 minutes, 50 secondswith Donald Trump in which he mentioned that despite all the chaos that is happening, they want to deescalate with
25:5725 minutes, 57 secondsIran. But the question is you want to deescalate with Iran and escalation with with
26:0826 minutes, 8 secondstotal Exact total And on top of it, we can you cannot believe anything that Axis publishes.
26:1526 minutes, 15 secondsAxis is not journalism. Axis is a an IDF mossad disinformation campaign
26:2226 minutes, 22 secondsmechanism. It’s not journalism. So we cannot trust anything they say. They
26:2826 minutes, 28 secondshave of course uh they are a mouthpiece of the Zionist axis. That’s a completely different story. Axus is one press
26:3826 minutes, 38 secondsrelease after another redacted by the Zionist axis inside the United States.
26:4426 minutes, 44 secondsThat’s a This is what people should know.
26:4826 minutes, 48 seconds[snorts] 26:4926 minutes, 49 secondsYeah. We had a new report that Iran, it seems, New York Times reported that there were some attacks on American
26:5826 minutes, 58 secondsships in Egypt. One of the ports in Egypt, they were attacked. And yesterday we we’ve seen the footage of that. They
27:0627 minutes, 6 secondswere on fire basically on fire. Two of these tankers or ships. And then today New York Times
27:1427 minutes, 14 secondsreported that it was Iran behind this attacks. If Iran did that, let’s assume that they’re right, Iran did that, it
27:2227 minutes, 22 secondsmeans a huge change in their policy because not only that, there were some reports in the United States cyber
27:2927 minutes, 29 secondsattacks and it it says Iran is behind those cyber attacks. This is the new strategy on the part of Iranian if they
27:3827 minutes, 38 secondsif they started that because it’s all about defensive. They’re defending themselves and they’re sitting back and
27:4527 minutes, 45 secondsseeing what the United States is doing to react to their the the US actions, but right now they’re going preemptive
27:5227 minutes, 52 secondswith the attack on Jordan, in my opinion, was one of them. Preemptive. You’re absolutely right.
27:5827 minutes, 58 secondsThat’s they changed their um the their the overarching outlook. We are not
28:0628 minutes, 6 secondsgoing to be defensive anymore. We’re going to take the initiative.
28:1028 minutes, 10 secondsand they start taking initiative only a few days ago. Absolutely. It’s now it’s different.
28:1628 minutes, 16 secondsThey want to accelerate tension in the d you know in the several key
28:2528 minutes, 25 secondsnodes of the once again the American uh surveillance
28:3228 minutes, 32 secondsand aggressive uh infrastructure the ecosystem all around the region. So west Asia and even beyond.
28:4428 minutes, 44 secondsThis is fascinating Nema in one aspect.
28:4828 minutes, 48 secondsUh obviously we won’t know directly but who took this decision to for a decision
28:5528 minutes, 55 secondslike that he has to come directly from Mosaba.
29:0029 minutesHe cannot come just from uh several IRGC generals. You agree with that? So this this is a decision from the very top, right?
29:1029 minutes, 10 secondsMhm.
29:1129 minutes, 11 secondsOr maybe you know the Iranian Supreme National Security Council had a suggestion given to the Supreme Leader and been accepted by the Supreme Leader.
29:2029 minutes, 20 secondsAccepted by the Supreme Exactly. of course the the mechanism it sounds logical. There is a debate at the
29:2829 minutes, 28 secondsSupreme National Security Council. Uh it’s practically a consensus vote. This goes to Moshtaba and he says, “Okay, I
29:3629 minutes, 36 secondsagree. Go for it.” Exactly. Because Iranian Artesh, which
29:4629 minutes, 46 secondsis not IRGC, Iranian Artes just Iranian army. Exactly. Exactly. And they have reported that they hit the US
29:5529 minutes, 55 secondsmilitary power generators in Bahrain, navigation system, administrative buildings and logistic and support
30:0230 minutes, 2 secondsbuildings in Bahrain, you know, because of that, you know, Iranian pilot which was martyed in the in Iranian 24 pilot. He was a hero. Absolutely.
30:1430 minutes, 14 secondsYeah. Exactly.
30:1630 minutes, 16 secondsand they reported something peppy looking at this situation right now. Donald Trump, there
30:2230 minutes, 22 secondswas a report on and NBC if I’m not mistaken. It says that there was a
30:2830 minutes, 28 secondsmeeting Donald Trump a security meeting and Donald Trump was talking about with you a few minutes ago. Yes, that’s that’s the same meeting. Yes, sure.
30:3830 minutes, 38 secondsYeah. Yeah. NBC reported that it’s a security meeting that Donald Trump is somehow so frustrated. is so desperate.
30:4530 minutes, 45 secondsHe doesn’t know what to do with the military options don’t sat satisfy him and nothing is happening with the case
30:5330 minutes, 53 secondsof the negotiations. That’s why he doesn’t know what to do. Basically, there is no you know vision for the near
31:0231 minutes, 2 secondsfuture for him. He doesn’t know what to do. This is the problem. I think it’s not just about Donald Trump. Iranians
31:1031 minutes, 10 secondsdon’t know what is the next move on the part of the United States. That is hugely dangerous in my opinion.
31:1931 minutes, 19 secondsYou’re absolutely right. is hugely dangerous because of the unpredictability and they know that he’s cornered and they know that essentially
31:2831 minutes, 28 secondshe has another two weeks two and a half weeks maximum to do something and then the whole thing will start
31:3631 minutes, 36 secondstumbling down on the ne on the negotiation or what remains of the negotiating table have been completely
31:4431 minutes, 44 secondssmashed. Now, uh, Larry and I have been following this in detail and we have questions every day to the mediators.
31:5331 minutes, 53 secondsSo the latest that we got early this week, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.
31:5931 minutes, 59 secondsOkay. so far until yesterday night.
32:0432 minutes, 4 secondsYes, there is a tiny window of opportunity if the Americans decide to grab it
32:1332 minutes, 13 secondsbecause the the the the sequence when you see it, the Iranians of course they look at the whole thing and say, “Okay,
32:2032 minutes, 20 secondswell, we never refuted uh we never rejected diplomacy as long as there is mutual respect.”
32:2832 minutes, 28 secondsSo what happened on Monday? There is an American delegation that goes to Rao Pindi to the headquarters of the
32:3532 minutes, 35 secondsPakistani army with a message and the message is what we would do to go back to the
32:4332 minutes, 43 secondsnegotiations which is the absolute opposite of what the Iranians have been saying for no I wouldn’t say even weeks but for months
32:5232 minutes, 52 secondsnow. So the Americas want to start with a nuclear dosier. Iran says no this is the last thing we’ll discuss
33:0033 minutesthen they want concessions from Iran so they may release a few not the whole six
33:0933 minutes, 9 secondsbillion for instance which is in Qatari banks with the Qataris were almost ready to release and then the Americans
33:1533 minutes, 15 secondsblocked it again and sanctions relief depending on all that according to the
33:2333 minutes, 23 secondsAmericas and then we discuss the straight of Hermus It’s the exact opposite of what Iran has
33:2933 minutes, 29 secondsbeen proposing from the start. So uh what what is this? It’s a battle for leverage on both sides and the mediators
33:3933 minutes, 39 secondsare in the of course the mediators are literally in the middle. The Pakistanis but also the Omanis and the Qataris
33:4633 minutes, 46 secondswhich are for instance the technical discussions about the straight of our moose. It’s Iran and uh Oman of course
33:5533 minutes, 55 secondsthe straight goes uh [laughter] between both. So they have to discuss the techn the technicality and Carter
34:0334 minutes, 3 secondsonce again they are trying to pose as a compromise.
34:0834 minutes, 8 secondsFor instance, if there if there was or assuming there would be I like to put this into the ultra conditional another meeting.
34:1934 minutes, 19 secondsThe Qatari said look do it in Dha. We are neutral in the story. Uh the the
34:2734 minutes, 27 secondsIranians prefer Islamabad where there was the first meeting because in Islamabad they have security protection.
34:3434 minutes, 34 secondsif they travel to Pakistan, Pakistan will protect them as they did the previous time and as they did uh in
34:4334 minutes, 43 secondsSwitzerland and the Americans want obviously Switzerland the west. So there’s a another clash on even if there
34:5234 minutes, 52 secondswill be a new meeting the okay where it’s going to be but of course the most important thing is this
35:0035 minutesuh battle for leverage as you know Nema and our audience knows
35:0635 minutes, 6 secondsIran will not fold and will not flinch these this is the order this is the
35:1335 minutes, 13 secondsprocedure and they are not going to deviate from it and all the Iranian points are in theou
35:2135 minutes, 21 secondsIran is basically saying we continue yes there diplomacy okay there’s a wind but
35:2935 minutes, 29 secondsthis means coming back to theou that you Americans signed and you start fulfilling your commitments
35:3835 minutes, 38 secondsas long as none of that happens we all know we are in limbo very dangerous limbo but this this is what it is at the moment.
35:5135 minutes, 51 secondsSo the only thing that could uh I would say interfere with uh I would
35:5835 minutes, 58 secondsnot even put it as reasoning but the with the American dementia is that uh the clock is running. They don’t control
36:0736 minutes, 7 secondsthe clock. Iran does. And in a little over two weeks we’re going to have a a real red line.
36:1436 minutes, 14 secondsSo they got to do something. And this was discussed in this mega meeting where Trump was, you know, basically
36:2436 minutes, 24 secondsthrowing epithets and insults to everyone in the room. Of course, he starts a war and when his own people
36:3236 minutes, 32 secondssay, “Look, there’s no way to end this war unless we are strategic strategically defeated and humiliated.” Obviously, he has to go crazy. But
36:4136 minutes, 41 secondsthat’s it. He brought this on himself and on the United States.
36:4736 minutes, 47 secondsThere’s no way out and there’s no off ramp. There’s only one rough offramp. It’s called M OU.
36:5736 minutes, 57 secondsThere is something going on I think between Iran and Qatar because yesterday they let one of their ship LG ship pass
37:0637 minutes, 6 secondsthrough the radar for yesterday passed. This is something new
37:1237 minutes, 12 secondsbecause in the in the last three weeks we did we haven’t seen anything from Qatar passing through this radar for most. This is the first time yesterday
37:2137 minutes, 21 secondshappened. It means that something going on between the two countries. There is Nema and this is basically Qatar trying
37:2937 minutes, 29 secondsto prove to Iran uh look we can be uh a neutral an effective neutral mediator if
37:3837 minutes, 38 secondsthere is a chance to bring the Americans on the table [snorts] uh let us let us in the game as well
37:4637 minutes, 46 secondsourselves and Pakistan let’s try to do this together Pakistan and ourselves we can do it we we can try to bring the Americans to the
37:5537 minutes, 55 secondsSo, so for that you need to trust us and it’s a good sign that the Iranians uh uh
38:0138 minutes, 1 secondallowed this LNG tanker leavingQatar to go to Pakistan. I I love
38:0938 minutes, 9 secondsthe metaphor and I love the continuity of this move. It involves the three players
38:1638 minutes, 16 secondsand it’s a a a process of trying to establish uh mutual trustworthiness among the three of them.
38:2638 minutes, 26 secondsSo once again this brings us back to the uh okay the the smashed negotiating table. Yes, there is a very very tiny
38:3438 minutes, 34 secondswindow. It depends on what do the Pakistanis and the Qataris have to do to try to instill sense into
38:4438 minutes, 44 secondsincluding some American negotiators probably they see it but obviously they are under Trump
38:5238 minutes, 52 secondsand one element uh Nema is very very crucial in all that uh I have to once
39:0039 minutesagain insist that we only have one source for is but this source in Pakistan is very well positioned. He’s
39:1039 minutes, 10 secondson the table and he has access to all this intel.
39:1439 minutes, 14 secondsHis interpretation is that this American delegation going to Pakistan on Monday
39:2239 minutes, 22 secondscame via the office of the vice president.
39:2739 minutes, 27 secondsThis means the these are G JD Vance’s people.
39:3339 minutes, 33 secondsThere was no twe and tweedle dumb dump and dumber Kushner and Witkov in
39:4039 minutes, 40 secondsthis delegation. This is very very interesting which proves once again
39:4739 minutes, 47 secondsthat at the top of the of the Trump administration there are several different views about okay diplomacy how how do we do it etc.
39:5939 minutes, 59 secondsAnd we all know that Vance does not essentially agree with uh Trump’s dementia moves from the start.
40:1040 minutes, 10 secondsSo this is a sign that the Pakistanis and the Qataris are looking okay let’s try to
40:1840 minutes, 18 secondsI wouldn’t say seduce but let’s try to get these American negotiations on our camp the diplomacy camp and let’s see if
40:2640 minutes, 26 secondsthey have enough influence in Washington to tell to the president look there is a possibility but you have to respect theou and the
40:3640 minutes, 36 secondskatanis and the Pakistanis are doing everything to move all the angles so you we can have the
40:4340 minutes, 43 secondstwo delegations once again in the same room.
40:4740 minutes, 47 secondsUh I know Nema and I know all of you watching us this is what a 0.1%
40:5440 minutes, 54 secondschance of diplomacy. Well, but at least there is a chance for diplomacy. You know, still remains there. And I’m sure
41:0241 minutes, 2 secondsif you ask Arai about this, he’ll say yes.
41:0641 minutes, 6 secondsWe never said no about it. But if they said they said diplomacy would be yeah always
41:1341 minutes, 13 secondsalways you’re right. So and says look if there is mutual respect we go back to the table and if they respect their
41:2041 minutes, 20 secondscommitments to theou we go back to the table. Mhm.
41:2741 minutes, 27 secondsI I think whatever happens if that 0.001% 001% happens exactly
41:3541 minutes, 35 secondscould be Yemen going to be part of it that let let me ask you how would you see
41:4641 minutes, 46 secondsYemen get into it obviously not in the negotiating table but obviously the Iranians are going to negotiate for the
41:5541 minutes, 55 secondswhole axis of resistance the point on the part of Iranian is that
42:0242 minutes, 2 secondsYemen first of all they have to remove all the restrictions on Yemen the siege everything everything there is no way
42:1042 minutes, 10 secondsbecause Yemen as you mentioned how important was the move of Yemen the perception that story that you told us
42:1742 minutes, 17 secondsabout the the perception on the part of the acts of resistance that’s why Yemen coming out I think the moment they came
42:2442 minutes, 24 secondsin is so precious is so important it is because they came when the this rate is totally closed and the fight is
42:3342 minutes, 33 secondshappening between Iran and the United States. They’re putting a lot of pressure on Saudi Arabia and you see how everything is just unraveling just
42:4242 minutes, 42 secondscollapsing on the part of the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. But for Iran is important. Yemen is so important right now.
42:5142 minutes, 51 secondsThey have they they they showed their power. They show if Saudi Arabia tries to escalate. You remember the last
42:5942 minutes, 59 secondsattack that they attacked all of these oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. What was the response from the Saudi Arabia? They they asked for a truce.
43:1043 minutes, 10 secondsYes. The the Saudis said, “Okay, okay, we stop. Let’s talk.” It was in 2019.
43:1743 minutes, 17 secondsSo there was a truce immediately afterwards and a memorandum of understanding, by the way, which the Saudis broke less than a month ago.
43:2743 minutes, 27 secondsExactly. And the latest attack on their oil facility literally the retaliation was the attack
43:3443 minutes, 34 secondson mountains in in Yemen. And we know if they want to hit the missiles in Yemen
43:4143 minutes, 41 secondswhich are other mountain even with these fighter jets you cannot achieve anything anything.
43:4843 minutes, 48 secondsBasically these are incapable of hitting the targets below the mountain.
43:5243 minutes, 52 secondsTrue. So that was I think that that Iran cannot ignore the role of Yemen. Yemen is so important. They’re going to put in
44:0244 minutes, 2 secondsmy opinion it’s going to be a new paragraph in the MOU or whatever.
44:0844 minutes, 8 secondsThey’re going to come with out with whatever that would be Yemen going to be part of that. They’re going to mention
44:1544 minutes, 15 secondsthe whole you know siege going to be removed and maybe you know a new relationship emerging out of that
44:2344 minutes, 23 secondsbetween Iran and Yemen between Iraq and Yemen that’s going to be a huge change for Yemen Pepe you know how much
44:3144 minutes, 31 secondspressure did they receive did they you know they have been under tremendous pressure for such a long time
44:3844 minutes, 38 secondsfor more than a decade to be honest this is this is something new for Yemen that could help their economy, that could
44:4644 minutes, 46 secondshelp this their position. They don’t they have a very bold position right now with acts of resistance and they’re
44:5444 minutes, 54 secondsgoing to gain their own their own way of dealing with their issues because they are a player right now to be honest
45:0345 minutes, 3 secondswith the new block there are a very important player. It’s not just about retaliation against you know Israel and
45:1345 minutes, 13 secondshitting some targets in Israel. It’s about their country. It’s about their position. It’s about their sovereignty.
45:2045 minutes, 20 secondsThis is so important for Yemeni people.
45:2345 minutes, 23 secondsAnd these are proud people looking at them and calling them proxy of Iran. It’s just ridiculous.
45:3045 minutes, 30 secondsThey don’t know. Pay attention. Too stupid. It’s too stupid. But even uh
45:3645 minutes, 36 secondseven if there’s no u addendums to theou and this is important the Chinese
45:4345 minutes, 43 secondsbasically are saying everyone should go back to theou there will be no new agreement.
45:5245 minutes, 52 secondsThis is a Chinese position which the Iranians understand very well and the Iranians are not asking for any
45:5945 minutes, 59 secondsrenegotiation or a new agreement. They are asking for the implementation of theou. But paragraph number one
46:0746 minutes, 7 secondsbasically says end of all wars.
46:1246 minutes, 12 secondsAnd obviously if they go back to the table and you have Iranian negotiators on the table, they’re going to say end
46:1946 minutes, 19 secondsof all wars means all your wars against all members of the axis of resist.
46:2646 minutes, 26 secondsThat’s where Yemen fits in without even need needing to add anything.
46:3446 minutes, 34 secondsBut can you imagine Nema uh for an American government to admit that they
46:4146 minutes, 41 secondshave to stop their war against the whole axis of resistance which was the [laughter] which was the main point from
46:4946 minutes, 49 secondsthe start even before the attack on Iran on February 28th.
46:5546 minutes, 55 secondsout of the question. We we know this cannot happen.
47:0047 minutesWhich brings us to uh this could go on for a long time and we could have
47:0747 minutes, 7 secondsescalation ladders up and down going on for months.
47:1747 minutes, 17 secondsHorrible.
47:1847 minutes, 18 secondsHorrible but quite plausible. Yes. Go ahead, please. I think the possibility of the continuation of the war is there
47:2747 minutes, 27 secondsis there and is growing as time goes by and the problem is that
47:3547 minutes, 35 secondsare they I’m talking they means GCC countries are they prepared to become a new Ukraine in the West Asia because
47:4447 minutes, 44 secondscontinuation of the war it’s going to be the total devastation of their economy their oil facilities everything they have through. They’re already freaking out.
47:5547 minutes, 55 secondsThey want out now. At least some of them. For instance, the Pak Kuwait’s way
48:0348 minutes, 3 secondsof getting out is the deal that they just clinched with Pakistan, which if you translate this deal,
48:1148 minutes, 11 secondsbasically is Kuwait saying, “Look, can we be part of your security umbrella?” That’s what it is essentially, which means it’s a way of getting out.
48:2248 minutes, 22 secondsand Kuwait imagining that if they are under a Pakistani umbrella, they won’t be attacked by Iran. But it’s not as automatic as that. If Kuwait continues
48:3148 minutes, 31 secondsto have American base in Kuwait territory, they will be attacked by Iran. Period.
48:3648 minutes, 36 secondsSo this is it. They cannot hedge. Okay, you want Pakistan to protect you? Okay, out with all the American bases. Is
48:4448 minutes, 44 secondsKuwait a sovereign enough to do that? Of course not. They don’t control anything about themselves.
48:5248 minutes, 52 secondsAnd this is the problem with all of them in the GCC.
48:5648 minutes, 56 secondsThey are all fake by definition. You know, when you go there and you when you visit, when you go there, you see for
49:0249 minutes, 2 secondsyourself, everything is fake with a few exceptions.
49:0849 minutes, 8 secondsA few exceptions in in inqatar. For instance, when you go to the gigantic university campus in Qatar, most of universities are American.
49:2049 minutes, 20 secondsThere’s one or two there are Qataris managed by Qataris with the teachers are
49:2849 minutes, 28 secondsQataris. But even if the teachers are Qataris and professor Qataris, they were educated where in Britain or in the US.
49:3849 minutes, 38 secondsSo you cannot talk about sovereignty and and these are the people who are forming the new generations.
49:4549 minutes, 45 secondsUAE is even worse. UAE is the degree zero of culture. There’s zero culture in the UAE apart from glitzy bling bling
49:5349 minutes, 53 secondsgolden towers. That’s it. So everything is fake literally.
50:0050 minutesSo uh these tribes you know all these uh GCC nations would
50:0650 minutes, 6 secondshave to have a a collective uh a road to Damascus moment not happening anytime soon.
50:1750 minutes, 17 secondsBut if they see that uh everything that they built or invested on or whatever uh is going to be destroyed maybe.
50:2850 minutes, 28 secondsBut this is where we are at the moment.
50:3050 minutes, 30 secondsAt least uh the little Americas that we find all across the GCC, they are being
50:3850 minutes, 38 secondsdestroyed methodically by Iran. And from the beginning, Iran was saying one of
50:4550 minutes, 45 secondsour key targets is to eliminate the presence of the United States in West Asia. And they are fulfilling it now.
50:5350 minutes, 53 secondsThey are doing it in practice.
50:5750 minutes, 57 seconds[snorts] 50:5850 minutes, 58 secondsAnd just talking about the real negotiations as you mentioned between Iran and Oman, we had the Iran Iranian
51:0551 minutes, 5 secondsdeputy foreign minister talking about it on Iranian TV. He said in Persian, he says that you know we’re going to have
51:1251 minutes, 12 secondssomething like what I perceive from his point of view that Iran is arguing not it’s not going to be 5050%. It’s going
51:2051 minutes, 20 secondsto be 75% Iranians and 25% control not about controlling
51:2751 minutes, 27 secondsYeah, it’s not about the money or anything like that. It’s about controlling the trade of for most 75%
51:3451 minutes, 34 secondsIranians 25 and the Omanis will uh so I assume that the Omanis are inclined to accept that.
51:4351 minutes, 43 secondsYeah, I we don’t know. We don’t know. He said that they are in the negotiations.
51:4851 minutes, 48 secondsOman has suggested Iran that they’re going to accept 50/50. Iran said no because of the security issues because of the war because of what has happened it’s impossible for Iran to accept that.
52:0152 minutes, 1 secondSo according to these negotiations Oman would would also have the opportunity to have their own fees for people who will
52:1052 minutes, 10 secondstravel uh using Omani territorial waters.
52:1452 minutes, 14 secondsNo, it’s not going to be Omani territorial waters. It’s gonna be two lines, one entrance and the other one
52:2152 minutes, 21 secondsthe exit. You know the the you know one line goes in, one line gets out and that
52:2952 minutes, 29 secondsbut none going through Omani territorial waters. No. Exactly. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
52:3652 minutes, 36 secondsNone of them. Okay.
52:3952 minutes, 39 secondsYeah. This is what’s going on between the two and I think this is the basic this is the most important negotiations
52:4652 minutes, 46 secondsgoing on as we talk there is no other you know maybe some messages behind the scene are somehow getting back and forth between Iran and the United States but
52:5552 minutes, 55 secondsis nothing serious because nobody’s talking about it and the real issue is this trade pep if
53:0353 minutes, 3 secondsthey come out with some sort of mechanism for this trade some sort of agreement between Iran and Oman And I
53:1053 minutes, 10 secondsthink the United States cannot change it. They’re not part of the region.
53:1553 minutes, 15 secondsExactly. They’re out. They are outsiders. Exactly.
53:2053 minutes, 20 secondsAnd of course, the Iran can convince Oman that there will be secondary benefits for the Omani economy. If they
53:2853 minutes, 28 secondsimplement that, the Qataris will eventually agree.
53:3353 minutes, 33 secondsThe Pakistanis can be the mediators among all of them. So it’s possible a deal on navigation in the straight of
53:4153 minutes, 41 secondsour moose is possible. Obviously from an American point of view will be I would say the crystal clear illustration of the strategic defeat.
53:5253 minutes, 52 secondsBut what are they going to do?
53:5553 minutes, 55 secondsWhat what what what is their plan B? Bomb everybody all over again which is the only thing that they do.
54:0454 minutes, 4 secondsEverybody wants the trade over moose open with a viable system starting with the Chinese which are the most important invisible players of this whole drama.
54:1654 minutes, 16 secondsAnd this was right behind uh the Chinese drive explains to the Pakistanis. Okay, look,
54:2554 minutes, 25 secondswe back you up all the way, but you have to do anything in your power to first of
54:3154 minutes, 31 secondsall get them back to negotiating table and find a mechanism for the straight of hormones.
54:4054 minutes, 40 secondsNo, of course just to clarify on what they’ve just said, it’s not about 20% of this trade
54:4754 minutes, 47 secondsof formos there h there would be two lines. One line gets in, two routes. One
54:5454 minutes, 54 secondsroute gets in, the other route gets out and it means that Iran going to control the line that gets in totally and the
55:0255 minutes, 2 secondsline that gets out, Iran going to control 50% of the second line. Exactly.
55:0855 minutes, 8 secondsIt’s not about the trade. It’s about two lines in the straight.
55:1355 minutes, 13 secondsYou’re right. It’s about two lines and of course leaving the straight of Hormuz. Okay. 50% they can delegate to
55:2155 minutes, 21 secondsOman. Of course, lots of tankers will decide to go through Omani territorial waters. Absolutely. But to get in, which
55:3055 minutes, 30 secondsis absolutely key, it has to be controlled by Iran. Otherwise, you’re going to have American vessels getting in.
55:3655 minutes, 36 secondsOf course. Exactly. Exactly.
55:3955 minutes, 39 secondsThe whole case of the negotiation is based on the security. Security and security more than anything right now for
55:4755 minutes, 47 secondsYes. Yes. [snorts] 56:0056 minutesNo prof I have a new profession. I am now
56:0856 minutes, 8 secondsthe constant gardener. You remember the movie? Yeah.
56:1356 minutes, 13 secondsSo that’s it. My my number one task is to take care of my garden. You know,
56:1956 minutes, 19 secondswater for the birds, you name it. Um the take care of the flowers. uh you
56:2656 minutes, 26 secondsknow they’re not not going to last long because after a few months they’re going to die. Of course, winter here is harsh.
56:3456 minutes, 34 secondsSo uh so I am literally uh in the middle of a garden in summer which is uh in
56:4356 minutes, 43 secondsterms of a contrast with all the horrors around it’s um it’s very good for your
56:5056 minutes, 50 secondsmind for your soul for your inner equilibrium and uh and of course this is also
56:5756 minutes, 57 secondsancient Chinese wisdom. Nema I always remember old Chinese scholars they had two priorities in their lives the garden
57:0757 minutes, 7 secondsand the library so now I have tried to bring all my books which are all over the world to
57:1457 minutes, 14 secondsone place and that’s it so well I can have I can have the books and I can have the butterflies perfect [laughter] 57:2357 minutes, 23 secondsjust enjoying your life And thanks all of you everywhere, you know, in in every language.
57:3857 minutes, 38 secondsYeah, exactly.
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