President Marcos will lose support in the Philippines by assisting in Digong’s arrest
Wed 1:50 pm +00:00, 12 Mar 2025What role did the government play in the arrest?
Duterte’s arrest and rendition, for want of a better word, to the Netherlands appears to have taken place with the cooperation of the Philippine government.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the man who succeeded Duterte, held a press conference following the arrest in which he explained that despite no longer being part of the Rome Treaty, the Philippines is committed to supporting the International Criminal Police Organization, or Interpol. And it was Interpol that asked Manila to enforce the warrant after receiving it from the ICC.
The indication from Marcos was that the Philippine government had no choice but to comply with Interpol for two reasons. First, it is the expected behavior of a democratic nation to comply with international norms, and second, Interpol has helped the Philippines arrest fugitives in the past – including former mayor and suspected Chinese spy Alice Guo.
In short, Marcos is saying it is in the national interest to comply with the ICC arrest warrant.
Is it in President Marcos’ political interests, too?
The Philippines can’t dictate to the ICC when to issue a warrant, or to whom.
And it appears ICC prosecutor Karim Khan requested the warrant on Feb. 10, so the timing wasn’t determined by Marcos.
But that isn’t to say that it isn’t fortunate timing.
There is an important midterm election in May, and Marcos is keen to use it to consolidate his power amid an ongoing feud with Vice President Sara Duterte – the daughter of the now-arrested former president.
In 2022, Sara Duterte and Marcos ran on the same ticket for vice president and president. But this coalition between two family dynasties – Bongbong Marcos is the son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and still powerful matriach of the family, Imelda – broke down rather quickly.
Fighting between Sara Duterte and Martin Romualdez, the speaker of the House of Representatives and a cousin of President Marcos, strained the relationship.
But beyond the personality issues, there has been a divergence in policy between the Dutertes and Marcoses. Notably, under Marcos Jr., the Philippines has pivoted back to the U.S. by allowing American troops back into the country and taking a more aggressive stance in regards to China in the South China Sea.
This approach has been challenged by the Duterte family, which has been closer to China. In the first year of the Marcos administration, Rodrigo Duterte served as a sort of envoy to Beijing, although it became increasingly clear that this was more of an independent relationship between the former president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
So could this be the end of Duterte’s influence?
That is certainly what President Marcos may be banking on.
The ICC prosecution of the father paired with a forthcoming impeachment of the daughter will neuter the Duterte clan’s power.
The reason this is so important for Marcos is that Sara Duterte has made it clear she wants to be the next president, and given the ill feeling between the two, there is a widespread assumption that if in power she will go after various members of the Marcos family.
With Duterte busy defending his case in The Hague, he will be unable to focus his efforts on helping his senator choices get elected in the midterms. It will also, presumably, end his bid to return as mayor of Davao City – a position that would give him a powerful bully pulpit.
No one should underestimate the charisma of Rodrigo Duterte; he is like a Donald Trump figure in that way. Many critics don’t fully understand the power of his charisma, his humor and the warmth that he displays to supporters – but it propelled him to high levels of popularity while in power.
And the public doesn’t see that charisma in his three children, including current Vice President Sara Duterte. Part of this is due to sexism – there is a lot of sexism in Filipino politics, so people are more likely to support a brash-talking man like Rodrigo Duterte, compared with his daughter. And Sara Duterte has problems of her own – notably the impeachment charges relating to alleged corruption while she was secretary of education.
Could this lead to a more polarized politics?
Your guess is as good as mine here. In the short run, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is clearly very good for President Marcos. And the small scale of the pro-Duterte protests suggest no great uprising against the arrest.
But what happens next – and how it is reported – is crucial. Filipinos love a political martyr. We saw this when former President Joseph Estrada was arrested and prosecuted over stealing public money in 2001 – his mughshot was adopted by supporters around the country. The same could happen to Duterte – it could go both ways.
TAP – Filipinos tend to support the underdog against world powers. Marcos thinks he’s easing his passage to win elections but he could well have a big shock. The Dutertes are very popular, amd the killing of the country’s drug addicts and dealers provided a time of prosperity and calmness for the country, which is being lost as the drug addicts start to threaten the streets once more.
