Michael Yeadon – Science. Sage. Ferguson. Immunity. The UK curve peaked and fall before lockdown

‘I heard a SAGE member (and you know who you are if you are listening to me) who said to a friend of mine and then he shared this conversation that, we had asserted that we thought the pandemic was almost over and we were seeing a secondary ripple at the moment which will crest and go away and the reason we thought that was true, was that we had done calculations and looked at the science from other theoretical epidemiologists, like Professor Sunetra Gupta and others, that the percentage of people we estimated had been infected, plus the ones who had prior immunity, equalled close to herd immunity and – lo and behold – the infections turned over and fell and the deaths decay to almost zero by July/August.
So, when I then heard from a SAGE member that said: ‘I couldn’t disagree more with your assumption that we’re near completion. I hope we never get to completion as that would mean hundreds of thousands of deaths. Only 7% had been infected and so what we need to do is keep us locked down for six months until there is a vaccine. We will end the pandemic through mass vaccination.’
That’s someone on SAGE. Don’t you find that frightening? I did.’

2 Responses to “Michael Yeadon – Science. Sage. Ferguson. Immunity. The UK curve peaked and fall before lockdown”

  1. sovereigntea says:

    LORD SUMPTION: I’m yet to meet a single person who plans to obey the ban on meeting friends and family indoors… why on earth should they?

    By Lord Sumption For The Mail On Sunday

    Published: 22:04, 17 October 2020 | Updated: 08:30, 18 October 2020 Everything in science is provisional but one thing is certain about Covid-19. Lockdowns do not stop the disease.

    They merely postpone infections until after they are lifted. They can work only if they are kept in place indefinitely. We do not need epidemiologists or mathematical modellers to tell us this.

    All we need to do is look out of the window and see what is happening in the world. Infections are roaring up in every country where a lockdown has been imposed.

    We are now about to go through a repeat performance of a policy that has demonstrably failed.

    Our Government is planning to destroy businesses and jobs, to increase poverty, to aggravate mental illness, and to inflict untold distress on many millions of active and healthy people who are unlikely to suffer serious symptoms even if they are infected.

    There will be layers of humbug to divert attention from what they are doing. Ministers will heave and moan about the pain that this causes them, as they assure us that it will all be worth it in the end.

    The Leader of the Opposition will throw in his hap’orth of support for some of the most poorly reasoned decisions of modern times. But failed policies are never worth it.

    If politicians want to be taken seriously, they have serious questions to answer which they have evaded so far.


  2. sovereigntea says:

    MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Powerful voices now argue for a more nuanced and less painful way of learning to live with the virus… We urge the PM to listen
    It would take the late Professor Albert Einstein to work out the latest combination of regulations on who we can or cannot see, mix with or meet, in the open air or indoors. And by the time the great physicist had managed to discover what it all meant, the rules would have changed again.

    The alleged scientific basis for this is weak beyond belief, as Sir Keir Starmer pointed out before throwing all reason and logic aside and demanding still more stringent collective punishments, which would incidentally make even more Labour voters unemployed. In 19 out of the 20 places already compelled to suffer under strict regimes, no benefit was observed.

    And why should it be? When we were first beguiled into this new way of life by an appeal to our benevolence and generosity, we were told that in a few weeks of self-restraint we would save the NHS from being overwhelmed.

    Who could resist such a plea? Millions cheerfully surrendered treasured freedoms for the common good, thinking they would soon get them back when the job was done.

    The NHS was not overwhelmed (and it is far from clear that it ever would have been). But the weeks passed, and what happened?

    The key problem of the episode from the start – that the danger from the virus itself had been overstated – continues unabated. Yet we are once again being accused of misbehaving by the simple action of living our lives.

    A blizzard of decrees compelled millions to wear face coverings, despite what the Government itself had once admitted was sketchy evidence for their benefits. Now a rise in cases, which is largely attributable to the normal increase in respiratory disease at this time of year, is being used as the pretext for regional shutdowns or for a so-called ‘circuit-breaker’.

    In London, scanty evidence of a surge has been used by the utterly undistinguished Mayor, Sadiq Khan, to trigger misery and economic damage among the people whose interests he is supposed to protect.

    It is this damage, combined with the shrivelling of much of the NHS, that makes this continuing foolishness especially hard to bear. It may even be that more people die from postponed or missed treatments than from Covid.

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