Not Even a Glass of Water

 

Source: https://sonar21.com/not-even-a-glass-of-water/

Russians are famous hosts. Sit down with Russian officials for five minutes and someone will produce tea, water, a plate of something and, if the meeting goes well, a bottle of something stronger. So when Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner took their seats across from Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin’s Senate Palace on Thursday, I noticed what was on the table. Nothing. No water, no coffee, no tea. Not so much as a mint.

In diplomacy, that is not an oversight. The Kremlin protocol office does not forget the water. A bare table is a message, and this one said: this is a working session, not a social call, and we are not going to pretend otherwise.

Then the Kremlin made sure the rest of us got the message too. In every previous meeting with Witkoff and Kushner, the Kremlin released only the handshakes and the opening pleasantries. The substantive discussion stayed behind closed doors. Not this time. This time the Kremlin put the substance on video. What Putin said was not small talk for the photographers. It was a set of positions delivered for the record, with the American envoys as the audience and the rest of the world looking over their shoulders. When the Kremlin breaks its own habit, it wants you to notice.

What Putin said

The envoys arrived straight from two days of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, which produced a large prisoner exchange and not much else. Putin opened politely. He asked them to thank Donald Trump for helping arrange contacts between Moscow and Kyiv and noted progress on humanitarian issues. He said he wants peace in Ukraine to last “forever.”

Then he got to business, in three parts. First, he said the territorial question keeps getting raised from various sides, but for Russia the people matter more. That is a polite way of saying the land question is not open for haggling. Second, he proposed a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka, which I’ll come to. Third, he repeated that foreign troops in Ukraine are unacceptable and would be “legitimate targets.”

The meeting lasted about two hours. There was no press conference afterward. Yuri Ushakov called the talks “substantive, constructive, frank and useful,” which in Kremlin dialect means nobody moved.

The Kostiantynivka dare

The Kostiantynivka proposal is the cleverest thing Putin has put on a table in months, even a table with nothing on it. “There is a settlement in Donbass, Konstantinovka, where there are also about 400 to 500 civilians,” he said. “Let’s do the same thing we did in Alyoshki: invite representatives of the foreign press, including the US press, and Russian media.” Russia, he said, controls the town, needs five days to clear the mines around it and will guarantee the mission’s safety. Then the kicker: “If the Ukrainian authorities control the city, as they claim, let them ensure security there.”

Read that again. Kyiv insists Kostiantynivka is still in Ukrainian hands. Putin says it’s Russian. Rather than argue, he invited American reporters to drive in and see for themselves. That’s not a peace proposal. It’s a dare. If the press arrives under Russian escort through Russian-cleared roads, the argument over who holds the town is over, and the Western maps showing it in Ukrainian hands go in the bin.

Kyiv’s answer was predictable. Zelensky’s office said all the details need to be clarified and accused Russia of using the Oleshky mission to rotate troops. Maybe so. But note what Kyiv didn’t do: it didn’t accept the challenge to prove it holds the town. When one side says “come and look” and the other says “let’s clarify the details,” I know which one I’d bet on.

Europe wants a chair

The Americans came with a request of their own. Kushner told Putin the Europeans want in on the negotiations, and that Washington has already started talking with them about a new security architecture for the continent. Kushner said a goal of the trip was to get Putin’s blessing for that. Before the meeting, Axios reported that the envoys would invite Russia to lay out its vision for European security, modeled on the security guarantees Moscow demanded in December 2021, updated for a “greatly changed world.”

Pause and savor that. In December 2021 Russia handed NATO two draft treaties: no more expansion, no offensive weapons on its borders. The West laughed them out of the room. Four years and several hundred thousand casualties later, Washington is asking Moscow to please resubmit its paperwork. Witkoff says the next round will include Europe.

Putin answered the European question before it was asked. Foreign troops in Ukraine are legitimate targets. Every “reassurance force” plan drawn up in London and Paris assumes British and French soldiers can deploy to Ukraine as part of a settlement. Putin just told the American envoys that any such soldiers would be targets. Europe can have its chair. It can’t bring its army.

What Alexander Mercouris saw

My friend, Alexander Mercouris of The Duran, went through the same footage and came away with the same read, only sharper. In his telling, the envoys didn’t come to Moscow on a routine stop. They rushed there, alarmed that Russia had moved the conversation away from Washington’s preferred agenda of ceasefire lines and territory. Alexander’s core point is that Moscow has made peace conditional on one of two outcomes: a full Russian military victory, or a new European security architecture. Territory, borders and ceasefires come second. Vladimir Medinsky made that case in Abu Dhabi, Alexander notes, and Sergei Lavrov made it before him.

Alexander also caught the choreography. Before the envoys got anywhere near Putin, Yuri Ushakov sat them down to find out what they were bringing. In the Kremlin’s photos of the main meeting, he points out, nobody smiles. The Russians look forceful and the Americans look uncomfortable, a long way from the friendlier sessions earlier in the year. And Medinsky was in the room. Alexander reads his presence as a deliberate signal of a harder line, and he lists Medinsky’s positions bluntly: all of Russia’s land comes back, and Europe stays out of the talks.

On Alexander’s account, Putin rejected any “gray zone” arrangement in favor of the state border, offered the Kostiantynivka evacuation and said foreign troops must never enter Ukraine. His “eternal peace” is one that involves Europe, on Russia’s terms.

Alexander’s conclusion is the one I keep coming back to. Europe is trapped. He cites a Financial Times piece reporting that European officials fear walking into a security-architecture trap, and he notes that Europe still hasn’t decided who would negotiate for it. He reports that Moscow rebuffed a British military back channel. In his view, the West faces its worst geopolitical setback since 1945, and an all-or-nothing approach leaves it with nothing.

Read the table

Put the pieces together. The table was bare. The cameras were on. Putin thanked Trump, proposed a mission that would settle a battlefield argument in Russia’s favor, waved off the territorial question and drew a red line through every European troop plan. Then he sent the envoys off to Dublin to explain all of this to Zelensky.

Washington will describe the meeting as constructive, because Washington describes every meeting as constructive. The Russians described it as frank, and for once I think they undersold it. The message from the Senate Palace was simple: Russia is winning, Russia knows it, and Russia is no longer interested in pretending these sessions are anything other than the Americans coming to hear the terms. You don’t serve refreshments to people who’ve come to take dictation.

Share this

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Need Reliable & Affordable Web Hosting?

The Tap is very happy to recommend Hostarmada.

HostArmada - Affordable Cloud SSD Web Hosting