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THE DURAN
Trump Changes Course on Iran
From “obliterated” to “low-key”: Washington backs away from military victory, as the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia and Netanyahu rejects Trump’s Gaza plan
US President Donald Trump appears to be quietly stepping back from the confrontation with Iran, with reports indicating that his administration is prepared to pause the conflict and potentially walk away from efforts to secure a nuclear deal if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Axios that Washington was “low keying” Iran, marking a striking shift from earlier claims that Iran’s uranium enrichment programme and military capabilities had been obliterated. The administration now appears prepared to wait, provided Hormuz is reopened and oil prices remain relatively low.
The strategy increasingly rests on the assumption that Iran’s economy cannot withstand prolonged pressure. Trump has publicly claimed that Iran has “no money,” while reports indicate that he believes Tehran may be unable to revive its nuclear programme during his presidency. The administration could therefore pause the confrontation, rebuild depleted US military inventories and leave the issue for the next administration. The preferred victory narrative of forcing Hormuz open through American military power appears to have given way to a much less dramatic formula: simply reopen the strait, then wait for Iran’s economic problems to do the work. From “obliterated” to “low-keying it” is quite a retreat in tone.
Meanwhile, the conflict is widening elsewhere. Houthi forces retaliated against Saudi military units in Mocha following a Saudi strike in Houthi-controlled Yemen, claiming to have hit a force of roughly 70 to 80 Saudi personnel. The Houthis also targeted an Aramco refinery inside Saudi Arabia. The attacks come just days after Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed an alliance, immediately putting its regional credibility under pressure. In Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected Trump’s proposed second phase, which calls for Hamas disarmament alongside an Israeli withdrawal. Netanyahu insists Hamas must first surrender and destroy its weapons. The White House has reportedly treated his position as election rhetoric rather than a final rejection.
Attention is also turning back to Ukraine, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner expected to travel to Kyiv and potentially Moscow. At the same time, The Atlantic has promoted Ukraine as a military manufacturing powerhouse while pressing for Kyiv to receive a licence for Patriot production. Yet the transcript points to an obvious contradiction: Ukraine does not manufacture the system, while even Germany has struggled to produce Patriot equipment despite holding a licence. The push may therefore have a broader commercial dimension, particularly as Serbia develops a drone facility with Israeli investment. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is meanwhile conducting extensive media damage control after his meeting with Zelensky, insisting Serbia remains committed to its national interests and has not imposed sanctions on Russia.
