Starting a week ago, a dramatic change took place in the way the war in the former Ukrainian SSR is being conducted. This is because exactly a week ago the Supreme Commander of Russia’s armed forces (Vladimir Putin, that is) gave the go-ahead for starting a new, decisive round in their confrontation with NATO, for which the former Ukraine is but a proxy, calmly announcing: “Wherever the enemy intends to strike Russian territory, a mirror response of greater force will follow.” This is a major change of strategy, not some minor tactical change, and is therefore notable.

There is no single fully satisfactory explanation for the exact reasons and the timing of this change, but there are multiple considerations feeding into this decision.

• There is the domestic consideration: it could be that in the eyes of the Kremlin it has finally become politically necessary to take the gloves off. Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in a large number of Russian regions has angered the populace to a point where a determined response was deemed necessary. A parliamentary election will be held in Russia this autumn, during which 450 seats in the State Duma will be voted on, and Putin’s United Russia party would like to at least hold on to its 324 seats. To this end, it is important to address the dissatisfaction among the electorate with the slow pace of the Special Military Operation in the Ukraine, which is now in its 5th year. Yes, the Russian army is advancing inexorably (albeit slowly), but why are the Ukrainians being allowed to attack Russia’s rear, causing damage to oil refineries and causing problems with the gasoline supply? The images of Russian soldiers unfurling Russian flags over yet another town in the new Russian regions, regularly shown on nightly news, are no longer as exciting as the images of exploding Ukrainian munition dumps, grain ships and, of course, gas stations. That is exactly what the Russians who have been forced to waste hours waiting in line to buy gas want to see!

• There is the international consideration. First, now that the US has lost (yes, lost, and decisively so) its war against Iran, and given that NATO is, in Russian estimation, just the US military plus some European clowns in uniform, NATO is no longer to be feared. Second, the Kiev regime appears to be nearing the end and entering its agony. The “cardboard revolution” unfolding on the streets of Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, where young people are paid to parade around with prefab cardboard signs demanding that a sacked defense minister be brought back, has been getting most of the news coverage in the West, but the question of which corrupt official heads up the regime is only relevant to its Western supporters, not to Russia. What is significant to Russia is that the Ukrainian army is rapidly running out of fresh recruits as the previous ones are being decimated at the front. Second in significance is the fact that Western financial support for the Kiev regime has dropped by a factor of five, year-on-year. These two factors significantly lower the life expectancy of the Kiev regime. Once the front starts to collapse and Western money stops flowing, the dictatorship will crumble and its operatives will run off to Miami or elsewhere where they have feathered their nests with stolen Western money.

• There is the technical dimension: Russia’s military-industrial complex has ramped up production to a point where an overwhelming military response can be sustained for as long as necessary to fully demilitarize the former Ukraine. An added consideration is that the Ukrainian military no longer has any air defenses whatsoever, meaning that everything that the Russians launch at it hits its target. This raises the efficiency of the Russian operation. In parallel, the ability of the Ukrainians to inflict damage on the Russian rear is dwindling rapidly as Russia’s air defense systems have steadily improved to a point where they are able to intercept over 98% of incoming Ukrainian drones. Oil refineries (previously, a prime target) are now sufficiently well defended, and that is probably why the Ukrainians have taken to attacking fulfillment warehouses. In the offing is the prospect of disabling Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system which is being used to provide guidance and targeting information to Ukrainian drones: the Chinese have announced an electron beam system in the gigawatt range that can fry Musk’s satellites as they fly by.

• And then there is the humanitarian consideration. So far, Russia’s military has been careful to avoid inflicting civilian casualties, even to the point of avoiding military targets that used civilians as human shields (a typical Ukrainian practice). But seeing as the Ukrainians make no pretense of sparing Russian civilians (recently using a massed drone attack to burn down a fulfillment center for “Wildberries”, a popular Russian internet delivery network, killing and injuring the workers there) it seems quite unfair for the Russian military to spare Ukrainian civilians if they are hindering access to military targets. Not to be ignored is the gradual shift in the Russians’ public attitudes toward the Ukrainian population. At the beginning of the Special Military Operation in the spring of 2022, most Russians were willing to concede that the Ukrainians were just a sort of Russian (said wincingly) and even Putin was on the record stating that the Russians are the Ukrainians are “one people.” Such fraternal attitudes have since become a rarity. In particular, regularly shown images of Ukrainian men being grabbed off the streets and coerced into the military have forced the question: if the Ukrainians themselves treat each other abominably, why should we take risks in order to spare them?

• Finally, there is the economic consideration. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter (and one of the largest food exporters generally) and the Ukraine happens to be a competitor. Ukrainian grain trade is being used to finance the Ukrainian military. Military equipment is being smuggled into the former Ukraine, disguised as civilian shipping. The main port facilities for this trade are in Odessa. Therefore, the Russian command has taken the decision to destroy these port facilities, shutting down Ukrainian grain exports. For a week straight, these facilities have been constantly ablaze, with some quite impressive explosions shooting up in to the sky. (Ukrainian grain explodes, you see!) The arms delivered to Ukrainian ports are moved to the front via the railways; therefore, the Russian command has decided to hunt down and destroy all Ukrainian locomotives. Trucks are also used to move weapons; therefore, gas stations and fuel depos are also being destroyed. A conservative estimate is that 200 gas stations along key strategic transportation corridors have been destroyed so far. Well over 4000 gas stations remain, but they are being knocked out as a matter of course. The goal is to make sure that nothing there moves (except on foot).

Note that not even once did I resort to using that overused word, “escalation.” Please allow me to explain why. Suppose you walk up to a bear and punch him on the nose. And the bear looks at you, his eyes full of sadness tinged with disgust. And suppose you punch the bear on the nose again. And the bear sighs regretfully and… rips your face off. Was that an escalation? If so, what are you going to do about it? Wag your finger at the bear while blood is spurting from your eye sockets? I bet that would impress the bear! The moral of the story is, don’t use big words if you can’t follow them up with even bigger actions.