US running short of heavy crude oil. Iran holds US over a barrel.
Thu 9:45 pm +00:00, 7 May 2026Iran has Donald Trump over a barrel and according to Alexander Mercouris of The Duran, all Tehran has to do is wait.
With Saudi Arabia blocking US military operations, Gulf states abandoning further escalation, and American oil reserves being rapidly drawn down to suppress prices, Mercouris delivers a detailed analysis of why a major global energy crisis is now the base case if serious negotiations don’t begin before September.
Meanwhile on the Ukrainian battlefield, a frontline report from Stanislav Krivenko confirms that Russian forces now fully control Kursk, are closing in on Sumy, and are systematically cutting Kharkov’s supply lines while Russia’s drone technology accelerates and Ukraine’s stagnates.
Mercouris also raises a deeply unsettling question: is the United States still capable of conducting meaningful negotiations at all, given the chaotic track record from Ukraine to Iran under both Biden and Trump? The autumn of 2026 may bring a convergence of crises – oil shock, battlefield collapse, and European political upheaval that forces a fundamental change of direction.
Are we watching the slow-motion end of Project Ukraine and the limits of American power in real time? 00:00:00
Intro & recap of Axios/Reuters Iran proposals 00:01:32
US has quietly dropped missile, Hezbollah & regime change demands 00:04:42
US demands 20-year moratorium + full uranium stockpile surrender 00:05:27
Iran rejects proposals as a “wish list” Galibbaf responds 00:06:38
Trump threatens renewed bombing — military advisers push back 00:07:10
MBS weighs in: Saudi Arabia tells Trump “don’t even think about it” 00:09:29
Qatar and Kuwait join Saudi Arabia in blocking further US escalation 00:10:30
Gulf States’ position: the Strait is closed, Red Sea at risk 00:12:16
This is not a stalemate it’s an economic conflict with a ticking clock 00:13:28
Iran’s oil storage capacity satellite images challenge US narrative 00:15:23
Iran can endure a siege; the US cannot Jeffrey Sachs on oil profits 00:17:30
June tipping point? US oil reserves running down faster than expected 00:19:21
The real US oil problem: light crude exports vs heavy crude imports 00:21:34
Peak Prosperity analysis: September is the critical deadline 00:25:46
Russia and China will urge Iran not to overplay its hand 00:29:49
What a realistic deal could look like back toward JCPOA 00:31:36
Is the US even negotiation-capable anymore? 00:33:08
Chaos in Ukraine talks: Witkoff, Kushner, floating peace plans 00:41:14
Marco Rubio: America’s top diplomat who isn’t negotiating 00:44:27
Without serious talks, a global economic crisis by autumn is avoidable — but likely 00:51:26
Sumy encirclement: 10km from the city, road to Kiev opens up 00:55:18
Lyman/Slaviansk line collapsing; Russian drone offensive escalating 00:57:49
Ukrainian drone technology stagnating vs Russia’s rapid advances 01:08:58
German coalition under pressure AfD ban attempt likely to fail 01:11:06
Autumn convergence: Iran crisis + Ukraine collapse + European political shift 01:15:31
End of Project Ukraine Germany can’t carry the burden alone 01:17:21
Final assessment: Washington faces reality of two unwinnable conflicts
