Ambassador Freeman knows a lot about the Middle East – and shrinking US influence
Fri 5:36 pm +00:00, 1 May 2026The war in Lebanon has displaced a million people in South Lebanon. The Israelis are destroying the towns and villages but being hit hard by FPV drones, and won’t be able to stay around.
In Palestinian Gaza, Hamas is still in charge, once a democratic orgnisation, now a militia.
Hezbollah in Lebanon is a state within a state, effectively a majority in the Lebanese parliament. French set up the government system in Lebanon to have a Shia speaker, and Sunni Prime MInister. The Shia are now the majority in Lebanon, but, thanks to the French, with them barred from running the government. They assisted Assad in Syria and are battle experienced, and are highly effective against the IDF invading Lebanon. They produce their own missiles and drones.
Hamas is not so well armed, and has less experience but is equally not going to give up.
Israel and the US like short wars of conquest, not wars of attrition. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah are ready for long wars of attrition. This is a war of attrition and economic attrition. Oil could see $200 a gallon and gas in the US $6 a gallon, which could cause huge opposition to the war carrying on in the US. Netanyahu wants the war to go on. Israel has not achieved the defeat of Hezbollah, and has not collpased the regime in Iran. Kushner and Witkoff are Zionists supporting Israeli objectives.
Very few people in Israel like Netanyahu,who likes the war as it’s keeping him out of jail for crimes of corruption. The Israeli public support the war, although they dislike Netanyahu. Elections coming up in October. The war may go on until October.
Censorship is very powerful in Israel so the public has little idea what’s going in the war, with reservists less willing to appear for duty. Israel is now a pariah. What Israel has done has revived anti-Semitism, synagogues attacked – but Israel doesn’t give a fig for Jews outside Israel. Anti-Semitism used to persuade Jews to head for the haven of Israel, no longer a haven, harming Jews outside Israel.
Defence companies in the US moving to Israel to operate privately not needing political support from the US.
The US is not fighting an existential war. Iran is fighting an existential war. Iran wants guarantees of no further aggression and a general ME peace agreement, and only then will Iran sit down with Oman and make a deal about Hormuz. Only then will Iran talk about nuclear weapons. The new regime in Iran now has the motivation to build a bomb, and the means of delivering that to the United States, as North Korea has done.
Ted Postol says Iran is entirely capable of building nuclear weapons in weeks. It’s toolate to stop it now.
The real reason for the attack on Iran is The Greater Israel project. The nuclear weapon and WMD motive as claimed by Trump and others was a cover story.
The UAE has been selling oil for other currencies, and has needed to trade some back into dollars. Leaving OPEC gives UAE independence from the Saudis and having to trade exclusively in dollars. The UAE is a supporter of the Abraham accords which others see as discredited. As for the blockades, flexibility could assist.
Leaving OPEC means also leaving the GCC. Oman has always been the odd one out maintianing neutrality vis a vis Iran. Oman condemned Kuwait for demanding US protection through the Iran/Iraq war. Oman is more outward looking, formerly had an African empire,has less oil than others. Qatar is different again sharing a gasfield with Iran, and of necessity is closer to Iran. Qatar is home to Al Jazeerah reporting truer versions of news than is required by some of the neighbours.
Bahrain is under pressure form its Shia majority, has quite tense relations with Iran, garrisoned with Saudi and other GCC troops.
Iran says to GCC you can’t have US bases on your territory. The UAE has two US bases which have been attacked by Iran. Qatar’s air base is essentially destroyed. Kuwait’s US forces have moved to an island.
The US public has no idea as to the level of destruction of the GCC countries, of US bases and of Israel. There’s been a cover up by everyone, except by Iran. Shia celeberates victimhood and martyrdom, and has been very open about the damage it has suffered. After the war, each GCC will do deals with Iran, including Saudi.
Turkey has been greatly strengthened by this war. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey are closely aligned, and as the US proves unable to defend itself, let aone GCC members – in fact US bases bring Iranian atacks – even Israel may reduce its dependence on the United States.
Russia is valuable to Iran militarily and politically. International opposition to the war and the blockades could enable Iran to work with Putin to bring an end to the war. The US has made a huge mistake in attacking Iran and is losing influence across the region as a result, putting American incompetence and impotenceon display.
China needs to balance relationships as with Saudi Arabia, unlike Russia which has its own energy supplies, and has a lot of common interests with Iran. Trump is detatched from reality, only cares about himself. He has no knowledge and is learning nothing. He is dangerous and shameful for Americans. Kushner and Witkoff are real estate traders.
The US is no longer capable of statecraft with Trump as was Biden’s regime. The Dept of State is paralysed. Trump went ahead with the war despite lack of support from the military. Iran has checks and balances, while they have gone in the US. Congress has no role any more. Supreme Court is politicised. Trump operates alone. Rubio is looking attacking Cuba. It is government by Zionist croneys and relatives by marriage, operating in Israeli interests however incompetently. Chas is appalled by current situation in Washington.
