Iran war analysis – Netanyahu wants to use “nukes”
Thu 8:27 am +00:00, 23 Apr 2026
Source: https://www.unz.com/aanglin/iran-war-the-nuclear-elephant-in-trumps-war-room/
Most of us are getting our information and analysis about the Iran War from podcasts. The mainstream news is useless, and to my personal regret, the days of blogging are mostly over. Alternative voices prefer podcasts.
Judge Napolitano, Glenn Diesen, Danny Davis, that Uzbek guy, they are all running the same commentators in a loop, creating enough content to listen to every waking hour. (Given that this is all allowed on YouTube, and becoming very popular, one has to wonder if there is something more nefarious at work, though most of the people appear to me honest, so if it is a psyop, most of them are not in on it.)
Tucker Carlson, the podcast beast, has a bigger variety of guests, and also gives his own commentary.
Representing the Chinese perspective is Professor Jiang. This more or less overlaps with the other podcasts, though it contains more “hard conspiracy” type information, regarding the Freemasons and such, which is representative of a more conspiratorial perspective in China these days than in America. His “predictive history” is of a Chinese character as well, simply a way to put a mystical flare on “rational analysis based on available data.”
(Note: I was deeply offended Tucker called Jiang a “prophet” in his interview title for predicting after the ear scratch that Trump would win and then start a war with Iran. Someone else called that. Someone very close. Someone writing this right now.)
In my analysis, something like 85% of the stuff said on these podcasts about the war is correct.
(Note: I exclude Scott Ritter, who is an unhinged kook and/or an asset designed to make anyone who hosts him look retarded. Publicly caught in two jailbait stings, he’d be an easy man to manipulate. Seriously, do you know how many “underage girls” have tried to contact me in the last 15 years? Guess how many I responded to. How stupid can you get?)
In the 15% space where most or all of these podcast people miss the mark, there is a big problem. These are mostly older gentlemen who don’t seem to be able to grasp the idea that anyone, including Netanyahu, would be willing to start a nuclear war. However, he is willing and it is very obviously his plan.
Let’s Walk Through This
The current story, as we understand it, is that the Mossad chief, uniquely charismatic and handsome Jew David Barnea, convinced Donald Trump that he could do a “regime change from the air” in Iran. The claim was that if he killed the Ayatollah and some other leaders, did a bit of bombing, the population of the country would rise up and install a Jeffersonian democracy, or maybe demand the Shah return, or whatever. I can believe Trump believed this. I can’t believe anyone else involved at any level believed it. From reporting in the New York Times, we see that everyone in Trump’s cabinet, except Pete Hegseth (who doesn’t really count), said the plan was nonsensical. That includes Rubio, Ratcliffe, all of them.
Regime change from the air has never happened (nb4 – there was a US-armed terrorist army in Libya, also that wasn’t a “regime change,” just the creation of anarchy, something which isn’t viable in Iran, given the missile and drone stocks would still exist and be used by someone). Assuming you do not completely dismantle the government, killing a national leader, no matter how unpopular the leader may be, always and invariably results in a “rally around the flag” phenomenon.
In this case, you can imagine 19 year old men who were in underground disco on Molly on February 28 and in a cave, turbaned up and training in a with Kalashnikovs on March 1. People simply do not support countries that attack their country.
There are decades worth of papers showing that what we’ve seen happen in this war is exactly what would happen: ballistic missile retaliation capable of devastating the US bases in the region and crippling the West Coast Gulf states for decades by destroying ports, oil fields, and water desalination plants, successful strikes on Israel, and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Further, everyone who studied the situation at all knew that this would lead to a global economic crisis, with the strangulation of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium.
It is completely impossible that the Israelis believed “kill the Ayatollah and democracy will sprout limbs and crawl up out of the Persian Gulf like a Paleozoic Era tetrapod and waddle into Tehran” theory. Bibi is a lot of things, but he’s not retarded. The Mossad has all of the electronic spying data and the best human intelligence of any intelligence agency in the world. They’re not going to fall for bullshit any first year polisci grad student would laugh at.
Consider the current situation: Iran has done what they were obviously going to do and is winning the war. There is no amount of bombing that can stop them from sending missiles at Gulf nations, US bases, Israel, and any unapproved vessel attempting to pass through the strait. Even completely leveling the cities, Gaza-style, will not end this ability Iran has.
The possibilities being presented on the podcast circuit are that Trump can either give up and surrender, meeting most or all of Iran’s demands, including removal of US troops from the region, an end to Israeli aggression, and allowing Tehran to charge a toll on the Strait, or he can keep bombing until he runs out of bombs while the global economy collapses, and Iran will remain in the driver’s seat indefinitely.
If we take this view, then we have to ask why it is that Bibi pushed so hard for this war. Either of the two stated potential outcomes puts Israel in a much worse situation than they were before the bombing.
So then: what was Bibi’s plan?
The only possible answer to that question is that Bibi planned to set the stage for a nuking of Iran. Not just a single nuke dropped on Tehran, mind you, as that wouldn’t really solve anything, but dropping 15-20 nukes and attempting to completely end the civilization.
Trump must have at least heard of this plan (presumably after his “48 hour war” started), given the language in some of his Truth Social Posts, which has included “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
It would be unfair to say the podcasters are not talking about the potential of nuclear war. It does get mentioned. However, the fact that this has to have been Bibi’s plan is unaddressed. I’ve seen no one say it. And yet, there is no other way to work it through logically.
I have heard some of these commentators address the idea that Bibi couldn’t possibly have believed the “popular uprising” theory, and their answers are that maybe he wanted to degrade Iran, which is definitely impossible given that he would have known exactly this current thing would happen, or that he was worried about his court cases, which is also ridiculous, given that he can hold that off with wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank.
It is simply a factual matter that the only possible thing Bibi could have been thinking was that he would be able to trigger a series of events that would lead to either Trump nuking Iran or Israel being “justified” in using their own nukes. He would prefer the former, but will settle for the latter.
The Chinese have come to this same conclusion I have, though they haven’t stated it outright. “Unofficial” (or maybe “semi-official”) China state spokespeople have said that if Israel does use nukes, “it will cease to exist as a country.” Though issued lowkey, that is a very highkey threat from a country that is capable of making good on it. Maybe that will deter Bibi. I doubt it.
The easiest path to a “justified” nuclear strike would be a 9/11 style event staged by Israel on US soil. This would probably get Trump to push the button. However, if that doesn’t work, it seems likely if not probable that at some point, Israel will just manufacture some atrocity on their own soil and say “our existence is being threatened” and launch the nukes.
Netanyahu would then resign and be pardoned by the Israeli court.
Obviously, I don’t know that this will happen. I’m not a wizard. I can’t predict events. Everything is in motion now, and all sorts of different things could happen. There are any number of unforeseen things that could occur and prevent this. However, right now, it is quite likely that the Iran War ends with a large scale nuclear strike on the country.
Then what happens?
I have no idea.
No one does.
