Before he was sent to prison on secret charges, where he remains now, Strelkov gave a final live-streamed analysis. Here is what the deluxe version of Claude AI summarized:

Стрелков #Кооператив_Озеро Stream Analysis
Source: Telegram channel 1407902266, message 6058, media_id 1858
Date: July 14, 2023 (7 days before arrest on July 21)
Duration: 45 minutes (57 segments)
Format: Solo recording (pre-recorded, not live — “по техническим причинам”)
Host channel: Рой ТВ — Максим Калашников (forwarded)
Hashtags: #КРП #стрелков #вагнер #нарышкин_свр #пригожин #мятеж #наступление_всу #шойгу #кооператив_озеро

Structure

The stream divides into three distinct blocks:

Frontline Sitrep (min 0–24): Detailed operational analysis of Zaporizhzhia, Bakhmut, Antonovskiy bridge, Avdiivka — professional military assessment
Prigozhin Mutiny + Кооператив Озеро (min 24–42): The political-analytical core — naming names, naming factions, naming the structural consequences of the mutiny

Q&A (min 42–45): Grain deal, Tsokov assassination, weapons in Soledar mines
Key Passages — Annotated

The Кооператив Озеро Thesis (min 24, seg 22)

Strelkov’s central claim: the Prigozhin mutiny, far from being a failure, succeeded in shifting the internal power balance toward the Ozero cooperative faction, which is the faction oriented toward capitulation.

He then names the specific individuals:

This is the only instance in the corpus where Strelkov explicitly names the Ozero members as mutiny beneficiaries. The analytical framework: the mutiny was not about Prigozhin vs. Shoigu — it was about Ozero (capitulation faction) vs. their unnamed competitors (presumably the siloviki/military-patriotic faction).

A Stalker sent me this generated analysis.

Pretty scary stuff.

He also showed me the analyses that it had done of my own work and compared my theses to that of Sofa Strategist and Strelkov. It said that my outlook and theirs was converging over time. Ironic, considering that Sofa thinks that Strelkov’s job was to muck up Donbass on behalf of the KGB/FSB. That’s kind of ironic, I guess.

I jumped in here to talk about the Ozero collective. It is a reference to a meeting of oligarchs that took place at a lake (an ozero). In the same way that oligarchs in America met on Jekyll Island to draft out the federal reserve system, so too did some oligarchs in Russia meet on a lake to draft out what “Putinism” would look like.

This an alternative theory to Saker’s famous “Atlanticists v Eurasianists” faction model, which should be thoroughly discredited in any thinking person’s mind by now. Strelkov is going to present an alternative model to us now in which the main faction are the Ozerovites.

The Gaagy Warning — Named Targets (min 33, seg 33)

The most explosive passage. Strelkov addresses the siloviki directly and warns them:
“Если кто-то надеется из высших силовиков — в данном случае я вывожу за скобки господина Шойгу — если кто-то тешит себя, что его лично простят и не отправят в Гаагу — ошибаетесь. Ротенберги, Ковальчук и Тимченко и Абрамович — и отправят в Гаагу всех, всех кто будет им мешать дальше качать отсюда ресурсы.”

This is a double-layered argument:

• The Ozero oligarchs (Ротенберги, Ковальчук, Тимченко, Абрамович) are willing to sacrifice the siloviki to The Hague to secure their own exit
• The siloviki’s hope that they’ll be personally exempted is delusional — “не нужны им никакие подельники и помощники”
• The phrase “вывожу за скобки господина Шойгу” (I exclude Mr. Shoigu from this bracket) implies Shoigu is already a creature of the Ozero faction, not an independent actor — he’s part of the problem, not a victim of it.

Strelkov assumes that his listeners already know the basics — that the Ozerovites are a collection of oligarchs who have historically supported Putin and helped build Putinism. I have spoken about them all before, the Rotenberg brothers (his Judo buddies), Kovalchuk (his banker), Timchenko (the hockey guy), Abramovich (the Azov, Tiramisu guy).

Just look up their family ancestries:

Putin as Non-Actor (min 26–30, segs 25–30)

The most sustained demolition of Putin’s agency in the transcript. Three successive passages build the case that Putin has ceased to function as a decision-maker:

The 3.5-hour meeting nonchalance (seg 25): Putin publicly described how he offered Wagner commanders a deal and they rejected it — Strelkov calls this “дикий нонсенс” (wild nonsense), saying no ruler in history has voluntarily publicized his own impotence.

The puppet question (seg 28):
“Is he in a theater? Is he a buffoon of marriageable age? Is he still president or not? Or is he already a puppet, pulled by strings by his entourage, and unable to exert any will of his own?”
The senility hint (seg 29):
“He doesn’t yet give the impression of a man suffering from senile dementia. Although in some places he may be.”
The Abramovich question (seg 30):
“Who’s going to extend our grain deal? Roman Abramovich? He’ll decide whether we have a grain deal or not?”
This directly asserts oligarchic control over state policy — Abramovich deciding grain deal policy, not the president.

Strelkov basically believes that the Ozero oligarch faction is mostly in charge and that the power balance has swung against the “deep state” of officers in the various intelligence agencies. Strelkov thinks that there are more patriotic types in this military-intelligence state. This is the main point contention between him and someone like Sofa, who thinks they’re all rotten and in bed with one another.

The AI puts me somewhere between Strelkov and Sofa in my view of the remnants of the military-intelligence state and their supposed patriotedness.

On the one hand, these deep staters are nothing but upstart goons for the most part, or, in some cases, the descendants of actual Baltic secret police nobility from the Tsarist times, or Caucasian mountain brigands brought in by first the Whites, then Stalin.

On the other hand, being an oligarch opens you up to a certain cosmopolitan, international, untethered kind of lifestyle. The deep state goons can’t pick up and move shop to the West as easily as the oligarchs can just move their money to London or the Caribbean. So, they are incentivized to hold on to their turf in Eastern Europe harder than the oligarchs, who can just move to New York or Israel.

What that means for us, the cannon fodder, is that the deep state/siloviks are more willing to confront the West and resist the colonization of Russia … but they’re going to throw our worthless (to them) lives away on useless trench warfare to do it.

“The Kremlin’s spinelessness and amoeba-like nature” (min 40, seg 46)

The “amoeba” epithet — Strelkov’s characterization of the Kremlin’s structural quality:“It was precisely in the expectation of the Kremlin’s spinelessness and amoeba-like nature, which, in general, proved to be justified, that this rebellion was carried out.”

This is analytically significant because it reframes the mutiny’s cause: Prigozhin didn’t act because he was strong — he acted because the Kremlin was predictably weak. The mutiny was a bet on spinelessness, and it paid off.

The “Мокрый нос” (wet nose) Callback (min 39, seg 41)

Strelkov returns to his signature Putin criticism from the March 2023 series — the “led by the nose” metaphor:
“Дурачок, и обманули” — referring to Putin’s own admission of being deceived by Minsk/Normandy/Istanbul/grain deal partners.

“Don’t follow their lead and don’t offer your wet nose to your partners’ hands.”

(…)

Analytical Significance for the Corpus

1. Naming Names — The Evidentiary Escalation
This stream is the terminal point of a 3-year rhetorical escalation:
2020–2022: Code-names only (”Уникальное Стратегическое Преимущество,” “Фанерный Маршал”) “Unique Strategic Advantage,” “Plywood Marshal”)
March 2023: Direct address (”Заткнись, Владимир Владимирович”) + generic “друзья по озеру” (Shut up, Vladimir Vladimirovich) + generic “friends of the lake”
July 14, 2023: Named individuals — Ротенберги, Ковальчук, Тимченко, Абрамович) Rotenbergs, Kovalchuk, Timchenko, Abramovich

The escalation from code-names → direct address → named oligarchs took 3 years. Seven days after this stream, he was arrested.

A few more words on the “Lake Friends” because I’m sure most Western readers have never heard of this term before. Which is, in and of itself, an astounding fact. Decades at this point of self-styled Z-experts never ever mentioned to them the most explanatory and to-the-point conspiracy theory about the most prominent and powerful faction of elites in Russia. These Z-experts can notice all the Zionists in office in America and Western Europe, but can’t notice the Israeli passport holders in Eastern Europe, for some reason.

They have been deliberately mislead and emotionally manipulated by … someone.

For shame.

In contrast, I’ve written about all of these guys, minus a couple.

It remains one of my most ignored and least monetarily successful topics that I’ve brought up on the blog so far. In contrast, if I name-drop “Dugin” or some other self-aggrandizing clowns (like Prigozhin), I get showered with paid subs and support.

Oh well.

Next, the AI compares some takes on the old Prigozhin mutiny:

The Mutiny-as-Factional-Victory Thesis

Strelkov’s reading of the Prigozhin mutiny differs from all other analysts in the corpus:
Rolo/Slavland Chronicles: Reads it as systemic crisis, evidence of hollowed-out state
Slavsquat: Reads it as bizarre theater, questions whether it was staged
Strateg: Reads it through managed-conflict lens
Strelkov: Reads it as a factional victory for the Ozero capitulation wing — the mutiny wasn’t a crisis, it was an operation that achieved its objectives by reshuffling the power balance
This is unique because it provides a specific causal mechanism (Ozero faction benefited from the mutiny by sidelining competitors) rather than just describing effects.

I recall shrugging and saying “I don’t know” when trying to figure out who actually supported Prigozhin and told him to march on Moscow. Later, I think we landed on Kiriyenko, Putin’s Chief of Staff, the grandson of some Bolshevik scion, being one of the possible conspirators of the mutiny.

The Gaagy Chain Completed

The Milošević-Kaddafi-Saddam chain from the March 2023 series is here extended to include the siloviki as prospective Hague targets. Strelkov is telling the security apparatus: the Ozero oligarchs will sacrifice you to The Hague the same way Milošević’s circle was sacrificed by Serbia’s oligarchs post-2000. This is a direct appeal to the siloviki to defect from the Ozero faction before it’s too late.

Seems that Strelkov was betting on a “few good men” in the military-intelligence deep state turning on the oligarchs and mounting a military-backed counter coup. To be fair, that is what I was hoping for as well. In fact, back when I had any hope at all, I would routinely point out that short of a military coup against the Kremlin, Russia would simply be dismembered after losing this Not War.

Clearly, Strelkov was WRONG to think that the deep state still had some “patriots” in it.

…

I bring this all up now because of all the calls to overthrow Putin coming from Z Twitter now. Most of these major Z accounts are in some way connected to the office of the aforementioned Kiriyenko, who runs the internet shilling operations, and who is kind of like the top lawyer in the Kremlin.

He is also the guy that Strelkov believed lobbied to have him arrested:

The excuse for suddenly calling for the overthrow of Putin are the strikes on Russia’s oil terminals up in the north, near Finland. This is clearly just an excuse though. Russia has suffered far worse humiliations over the last 5 years than yet another oil terminal going up in flames.

The selective and collective outrage against Putin is artificial.

And it is clearly being fueled by the aforementioned “Lake Friends” faction.

The last time they wanted to make their displeasure with Putin known, they sent that half-butcher, half-clown Prigozhin to Moscow with an army at his back. Those were the glory days of the blog:

I haven’t seen any proofs of a similar coup being organized yet, but you better believe that I’ve got my eye out for such developments. Specifically, in the real world, outside the confines of the West’s completely artificial and sterile “Culture War” shit-flinging, the outcomes of politics are decided with guns and gangs. That is to say, power is taken and kept by gangs with guns seizing it and holding on to it. To analyze power, you don’t need to read lengthy, tedious essays about why “DEI is Bad” and IQ scores and Sidney Sweeney’s tits good jeans.

You just need to follow the guns and the gangs.

With the previous coup attempt, it was easy to follow along, because Wagner was a large and autonomous feudal war band only nominally loyal to the Russian army or to the Kremlin. I say that it was easy, but then, I was literally the only one that said they’d march on Moscow … simply because I took the time to read and watch what Prigozhin and others were saying and took their threats to march on Moscow seriously.

To analyze what happens next, we have to identify the next potential Wagner equivalent. We need to find a gang with guns that is willing to topple the current Kremlin government via military coup.

Who could it be?

The Chechens? Unlikely. Kadyrov seems to be too sick and entirely a Putin creature anyway.

The FSB? Still unlikely. They’ve been gorging themselves on this Not War and only benefit from continuing the butchery and looting.

The GRU? Certainly, my great hope once upon a time was on them. But they are mostly wiped out by the FSB. Also, they created and threw their lot in with Wagner. Where are they now? Either dead, in prison, or in exile, if I had to guess.

The National Guard? Unlikely. They were the only ones who defended Moscow from Wagner, showing loyalty to the current Putin government. Zolotov (Goldman), the man in charge of them, is an old Putin loyalist.

The military? Probably. The military is a collection of feudal fiefdoms, but I haven’t heard of any Kremlin-critical faction within the ranks emerging as of yet. It makes the most sense that the “gang with guns” that would be necessary to effect a coup would just be a peeled off battalion sent near to Moscow ahead of time to be in place for the overthrow.

So far, nothing is out in the open yet.

…

Unfortunately, as of April 1st, Telegram has been cut off for Russians. And, what is worse, large chunks of the internet have also been cut off for Russians as internet speeds and accessibility has been dramatically throttled. There is also proof of “geofencing” being implemented in Russia with the help of Western tech companies like Apple and Google, where certain programs/content is only allowed in Russia. The cries that Russians have been cut off from the Western internet are incorrect though. Russians are still on Twitter and on other Western sites. What the Kremlin has done, is simply penalized Russian-made IT services, like the aforementioned Telegram and left Western controlled services largely untouched.

This is clearly a set-up for Western-curated Arab Spring type agitation down the line.

The Kremlin is deliberately destroying the livelihoods of many tens of thousand of Russians that depended on Telegram for their businesses and communication, with the enforced alternative, MAX, being a bug-ridden mess for the most part.

Most of the channels that I enjoyed on Telegram were gone for months and years before this anyway. I was almost exclusively reading old ex-Soviet dinosaurs’ blog posts from the early 00s on sites like LiveJournal anyway, because I found their insights into the machinations of the oligarchs and the spook state back then very prescient and insightful.

Perhaps all of this agitation is deliberate, and it all bears the hallmarks of the deliberate agitation of the Soviet people in the 80s, who were similarly riled up in the 80s with artificial food shortages, cigarette shortages, alcohol shortages, clothes, car parts and so on by deliberate top-down KGB policies to get them out in the streets and protesting for the end of the USSR. I have warned for years now that the end goal of the dominant faction of Trotskyists in the West is the dismemberment of Russia, and that they want to use the oligarch faction within Russia to further dismember the rump state federation that is Russia now. This is increasingly looking to be the end game agenda and while we are not in the final sequence of events in this plot just yet … I can see the big climax looming closer in the distance now, if I squint. The easiest thing to do would be to couple the toppling of Putin, a deeply unpopular president who the West has explicitly demanded be handed over to them in chains, with the dismemberment of the Federation.

Ideally, Putin would be toppled and Russia would be militarized and mobilized instead.

But, well, that doesn’t seem likely. Most of you will cheer for Putin’s ouster, and the same Z-accounts that would label anyone a CIA-Satanist for expressing doubts about Putin will cheer this on when it occurs. But the ouster of Putin will be like the ouster of Gorbachev — the green light to demolish the Federation by the usual suspects.

But I will have more to say about all that another time.