It’s not only oil.
Sat 12:23 pm +00:00, 21 Mar 2026 3https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/alexander-mercouris-iran-war-transforms
You can only ignore reality for so long. The Belgian PM suggested that the EU should start talking to Russia, this proposal supported by the Italians.
NATO agreed with Russia at the end of The Cold War that NATO would not expand eastwards, a promise which has been continuously broken ever since.
There is a way back. Neither Russia nor Iran want to expand territorially. They want a long peace and not to be attacked or preyed upon.
The Europeans are divided with some diehard aggressors like Kallas and Merz.
Reality is we, the EU, can’t defeat the Russians, with or without the Americans.
Sanchez in Spain, not so hardline. Meloni in Italy. The hardliners, however,are in control of the key levers and dominate the narrative.
TAP – what about Fico and Orban of Slovakia and Hungary, wanting to invade Ukraine to secure their gas supply pipeline, currently blocked by Zelensky.
Europe has cut itself off from Russian gas in sanctions. Now with Iran and the ME, the Europeans are talking about getting some Russian gas again.
The Russians, however, are unwilling to supply Europe again, as they have set up new markets elsewhere.
Both the Russians and the Iranians tried to negotiate in good faith, making big concessions, but it got them nowhere.
The Americans only take and never give. The Iranians are more angry, as their country’s existence is at stake.
They won’t sue for a ceasefire until there are guarantees of longterm peace.
The West has to accept the Iranians and the Russians as equals, and not think sanctions are a one way street.
China is militarily and economicially at a different level to Russia and Iran. The colossus of Asia, with a complex relationship with the US, which they are trying to preserve.
Yet China sees the hostile rhetoric against China in Washington, and sees a growing threat from America.
They help Russia by buying oil, supplying chips – same with Iran – supplying finance, radars?,
Russia is supplying materiel to Iran as they did to Vietnam, training them in use of drones and missiles in combination,the Shahed drones in particular.
Operating radars and air defence missile systems. Ukrainians are attacking Caspian Sea ports for some reason.
China supplying materiel and aid as well, by convoys of trucks, in all probability. Food. Flour. Condensed milk.
Iran has agriculture. Needs fertiliser. Can be classifiable as humanitarian aid.
Who will break first? Iran? Israel? The Gulf States? Europe?
The most heavily battered is Iran. But the Iranians see the conflict as forced upon them in the middle of negotiations. It is existential. To not become a western colony again.
They have endless motivation. For the US it is a war of choice. Less so Israel, but for the US it is a war of choice. Europeans mere passengers with little motivation, and low tolerance,
of things like rationing. Iran plausibly can endure a war of attrition much longer than the West.
America has low tolerance of casualties, and hardship and political support will slip there before it slips in Iran.
Trump talked of an excursion. Europeans were not even asked. Japan wasn’t informed.
Europe has surrendered our foreign policy to the Americans.
TAP – We need to build independence movements across the continent, as Hungary and Slovakia and to a lesser extent Serbia is doing. In the UK Restore Britain is growing fast, but as yet it is not an independence movement, which it will have to become if it wishes to achieve its aims.
Hi Tap, only a thought, but would those who currently control things within Britain, allow a freelance or an independent people controlled organisation to exist. Surely at least, they would infiltrate it.
Of course all are infiltrated. You can normally see which are the infiltrators, and you have to work around them. That or do nothing. The infighting isnormally deliberately set up by infiltrators trying to block progress. Then you get different infiltrators working for different paymasters which can become quite interesting as they make war with each other.
Thanks Tap. Makes a lot of sense.