Has the SMO on Tehran Already Begun? Is Turkey next?

 Thu 11:23 am +00:00, 5 Mar 2026  

posted by pete fairhurst 2

 

Source: https://slavlandchronicles.substack.com/p/has-the-smo-on-tehran-already-begun

The internet is out in Iran, but we do have Western sourced reports that the Kurds are now engaged in fighting with the Iranian army in the East.

These Kurds are from area neighboring Syria and Iraq where the Americans set up their bases, under the pretext of battling ISIS/IS almost a decade ago. Along with Moscow, Washington and Israel and the Gulf States have been arming and training up the Kurds, ostensibly to battle ISIS and other radical jihadists, also set up and sponsored by Washington, Israel and the Gulf States.

Their real reason for doing this should now be readily apparent to everyone.

I would assume that the goal is to do an SMO on Tehran.

But, because of the information blackout at the moment, it is hard to say how long such an SMO would take and whether or not it would encounter any significant resistance. Our understanding of the American-Israeli plan should be based on an understanding of their war doctrine. Essentially, the playbook is very simple.

They:

• Establish air dominance using any means necessary; American and Israel have 10x the number of military aircraft as Iran, and of a superior make
• Bomb their enemies with impunity for weeks; this is done in preparation for an eventual quick ground campaign

Let me elaborate on this point — B52s are already bombing with impunity over Iran, these planes are old, slow, lumbering and easy to shoot down with even rudimentary air defenses. You only send them in when you know that the enemy has nothing left to defend themselves with.

Now, the state of Iran’s air defenses is still a matter of debate.

Clearly, they were turned off last summer during the Twelve Day War, and they were hit hard, under the pretext of some sort of Greenpeace style anti-nuclear power bombing campaign. If they were ever really even up and running, they didn’t knock down a single American or Jewish plane. Me, I maintained that the Iranian government was so thoroughly riddled with Western and Jewish assets, that they would refuse to shoot down any enemy planes. I am about 90% confident that this is indeed what happened.

What then were the state of Iran’s air defenses going into this latest round?

Some say that they had already been thoroughly obliterated. Others that they, again, simply aren’t turned on. And then the NATO position is that their skills and high tech and diversity pilots are the reason for the success, of course.

Did the plane crash because of friendly fire or because a 5.3 Gen Z girlboss was piloting it?

Analysts that I respect, like Sofa Strategist and that whole milieu of conspiracy/military hardware enthusiasts believe that there are still intact air defenses in the east of Iran. I believe that the Iranian government is deliberately minimizing American and Jewish casualties because their leadership class are American assets.

Now, Iran is surrounded on all sides by enemies. About a third of the country is some sort of aggrieved and hostile ethnic minority to boot. So far though, the Kurds and some Arab Islamists are the only forces that we have news about being activated at this moment.

The Soviet plan to invade Iran back in the day was to use the Azeris. Since the USSR, Azerbaijan has closely aligned with Israel. However, they are also aligned with Turkey, which, under Erdogan, has been reticent to go along with American-Israeli plans to arm and train Kurds. This is why Erdogan and his government will end up being toppled soon as well, by the way, and through the same means. But that is an essay for another time.

Will the Azeris get involved and carve off NW Iran?

With the Azeri-Iranians who ran Tehran on the verge of being wiped out, it seems like the only beneficial course of action for Baku is to tear off what they can get from Iran’s corpse. I cover the Azeri Occupation Government here:

But this is 100% speculation at this point. We don’t have reports of Azeri militias or regular troops on the move at this moment.

Pakistan, an ally of Saudi Arabia, with whom they share a defense treaty might get involved soon too. If the Iranians foolishly hit some shopping mall in Mecca or whatever, that might be enough to give them the justification they need to invoke the mutual defense treaty. Also speculation at this point.

Let’s get back to the bird’s eye view, strategic level of analysis though.

• After bombing the country, the Americans send in fast-moving, heavily armored ground troops to quickly seize pulverized strategic objects
• This is the GWOT war doctrine, the “Shock and Awe” approach that was used in Iraq
• It is a bizarre Resistance myth being peddled on social media now that America doesn’t have enough soldiers to do a repeat of a dash to Baghdad. No, America did not use 2-3 million men in 2003, they used less than 200K soldiers to seize Baghdad
• This time, there are 50K troops that have been moved to the Gulf bases specifically for something; there are also tens of thousands of soldiers garrisoned in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, in Syria
• Put together, we may have more than the 200K that was used for taking Baghdad

It remains to be seen whether or not the plan is to simply provide air support for an SMO led by Kurds or ISIS battalions on Tehran, or to send in American troops to achieve the same objective … or both.

I think that the bombing campaign still has several weeks to go.

Iran has no defenses whatsoever against this, so most of its critical infrastructure will revealed to be in rubble when the dust settles, presumably. RT has video coming out from Tehran, and it seems that the city is being pounded as heavily as Baghdad was all those years ago. The Jews and the Americans are targeting civilian residential areas, presumably deliberately, to sow terror and presumably to summon Jesus from the pits of Sheol or whatever with this offering of blood.

Here:

The city of Tehran has been subjected to heavy aerial bombardment by US and Israeli forces, with the strikes targeting multiple government and public sites across the Iranian capital, according to RT’s Tehran bureau chief, Hami Hamedi.

Hamedi visited a police headquarters on a busy route running through the heart of the city that was bombed on Tuesday. The death toll from the attack remains unclear.

Footage from the scene shows the police station heavily damaged, with its upper floors caved in. Rescuers are still digging through the rubble at the site, with heavy machinery deployed to aid them.

“As you can see, there were residential buildings across from this police station, all of which have been damaged,” Hamedi says.

One reason why you would take out a police station is to make organized defense of the city difficult and to enable internal sabotage.

The attack inflicted heavy collateral damage, with multiple husks of civilian vehicles and motorcycles littering the surroundings of the police headquarters. Over a dozen passersby were killed in the attack when the police building was hit by multiple projectiles in a matter of seconds, eyewitnesses told Hamedi.

“I personally saw someone in front of the cafe who didn’t have a head,” a local business owner, whose cafe was severely damaged in the strikes, has said. “Between ten and fifteen pedestrians who were passing by apparently died,” he added.

You can find the videos showing the damage on the RT page, but information is still scarce.

Now for the objections.

Objection #1: Iranians are united in their hatred of America and Israel, the big and little Satan!

No, most Iranians support and look up to America. They watch American TV and pine for American cardboard McMansions. Of the 90 million people in Iran, a substantial chunk genuinely hate the government and want it toppled either for religious or ethnic or financial reasons. Most foolishly believe that America is a potential ally that will unlock prosperity for their country.

This is the default belief held by the peasantry in most of the world, mind you.

Certainly, the average Ukrainian and Russian believed that America had the keys to financial success in the palms of their hands for many decades. They would look at countries that America allied with and see economic success, and those that opposed America mired in poverty and spook state sadism. From that, they’d draw conclusions.

This was a deliberate PR policy:

Furthermore, the “little Satan” is the UK, not Israel. Yes, the mullahs maintain that “Zionism” is bad, but they maintain that the Jews and their holy books are Chosen by Allah in their backwards religion. There are antisemitism “Hate Speech” laws in Iran.

Objection #2: there are mountains in Iran unlike Iraq, making it impregnable!

Yes, and those mountains lie in the problematic, rebellious areas of Iran, not the once lush, verdant, flat, agricultural plains around the capital where whatever is left of the Persian people live.

If the government in Tehran loses control of these mountainous peripheries, they will struggle to take back control. The topography of Iran is a disadvantage, not an advantage for the government in Tehran. Once cleaved off, taking back these areas will be bloody.

Objection #3: Trump has run out of missiles! Iran has already won this war!

Yeah, so, veterans of the news coverage of the Ukraine war ought to know that this pretending to be weak thing is a deliberate NAFOid tactic to get more money and weapons for the Judeo-American war machine. Literally every single season starts with a chorus of hyperventilation from NAFOid shills claiming that Zelensky has run out of bullets, and that they need to place huge, urgent, new orders IMMEDIATELY.

Never once has Kiev run out of weapons or ammunition since this conflict began though.

And you will find that this kvetching over depleted American munitions is the exact same ploy. When you amplify it by gloating that America has run out of missiles, this sets up a feedback loop where now it becomes established fact that a huge ramp up in military spending is absolutely necessary. You, playing the role of useful idiot foil, provide a piece of the PR justification for this policy. It is a fantasy that Iran, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, China, Brazil, South Africa, and India have formed some sort of anti-American military and economic conspiracy to topple the US. These countries are all dependent on America, and extremely weak in comparison. But if you, a policy maker in Tel-Aviv or Langley wanted to manufacture a reality in which these countries were a real threat, you’d employ CIA agents like Ritter, Johnson, Macgregor, to convince the world of how powerful your enemies are, and how weak you yourself are.

Then, all of a sudden, you reveal the true nature of the power balance between you and them.

And everyone is left shocked and in disbelief.

On a more macro level, by pretending that Iran is fighting back, you are helping the Judeo-Americans burn more Iranians alive.

It is the same rhetoric as “Japan will never surrender because of Shintoism” that you use when you claim the same, but “Iran will never surrender because of Shi’itism.” In reality, Tehran has tried to surrender, twice already, but you can’t bomb a surrendered country, so their surrenders have been rejected, just as Japan’s was, leading to the deliberate firebombing of all their major civilian centers by the Judeo-American war machine.

Here is a NYT report alleging the same thing:

In public, Iran’s surviving leaders have defiantly refused to negotiate with President Trump to end the American and Israeli assault on their country. But a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, according to officials briefed on the outreach.

U.S. officials are skeptical — at least in the short term — that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an offramp, the officials briefed on the outreach said.

Still, the offer, which was made through another country’s spy agency, raises critical questions about whether any Iranian officials could put into place a cease-fire agreement with the Tehran government in chaos as its leaders are methodically picked off by Israeli strikes.

The offer was described on the condition of anonymity to The New York Times by Middle Eastern officials and officials from a Western country.

White House and Iranian officials did not respond to requests for comment. The C.I.A. declined to comment.

Israeli officials, who want a weekslong campaign to inflict maximum damage on Iran’s military capabilities, and perhaps cause Iran’s government to collapse, have urged the United States to ignore the approach. For now, the offer is not considered serious in Washington.

And after saying for days that he was open to discussing a deal with Iran, Mr. Trump posted on social media on Tuesday morning that it was now “too late” for talks.

Speaking with reporters later in the day, Mr. Trump lamented that the Iranian officials the United States knew and had considered as potential leaders were being killed.

“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Mr. Trump said. “Pretty soon we are not going to know anybody.”

The Iranian outreach, and the chaos in Iran’s leadership ranks as the assault continues, highlights the key issue Mr. Trump faces as he decides what sort of Iranian government he might hope to shape, or at least settle for. He already seems to have stopped promoting his initial scenario of a popular uprising against the government yielding a new set of leaders and instead seems to view the best outcome as more pragmatic figures emerging atop the existing political structure.

At a minimum, Trump officials will expect any agreement to stop the bombing to include a pledge from Tehran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, and its support for foreign proxy groups like Hezbollah. In return, Mr. Trump has suggested that he would allow Iran’s surviving leaders to maintain their economic and political power.

Mr. Trump suggested again on Tuesday that his model would be Venezuela after the U.S. capture in January of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Under threat of additional force, Mr. Trump has compelled Mr. Maduro’s successor to grant the United States control over Venezuela’s oil exports while making few demands for political reform.

“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario,” Mr. Trump said in a Sunday interview with The New York Times. “Leaders can be picked.”

One more topic to cover today.

Objection #4: Iran has destroyed the American army with their missiles!

We don’t know the extent of the damage from Iran’s ballistic missiles.

Last summer, we were told that Tel-Aviv had become Gaza — a ruinscape of rubble. This was simply not true. Barely anyone died from thousands of missiles that were launched. So far, Tel Aviv is untouched. Here is a live cam of the sky line.

As for whether or not 40K (or even 400) American soldiers have been blown up by Iranian missiles, all we know is that there have been four (4) confirmed dead so far.

But I’m sure that, perhaps, maybe even 40 American soldiers will end up dead in a week’s time.

Once again though, the realities that we are inhabiting are completely different. Pretty much everyone that I would agree with “ideologically” about Israel and America being the evilest chimera empire in known human history is mad as fuck at me for not pretending that Iran is winning this war like they are. The country is being blown to bits and incinerated with no functioning defenses, no significant tolls or costs inflicted on their enemies, and I’m supposed to believe that Shi’itism will lead to millions of Western Satanist forces dead?

It is to laugh.

Perhaps I am more sensitive to this line of disinfo because I know that it will soon be my people being incinerated from the skies while my “friends” cheer on our successful resistance. Actually, wait a moment, that is the reality that I’ve been living in for the last four years already. To me, this is not a game. Other peoples’ lives are not pawns that you can throw away so that a Twitter personality can “own da libs/nazis/commies” and make a hundred thousand impressions.

I really do not understand normies’ brains.

It is not difficult for me, conceptually, to be opposed to a state or an army, and to also acknowledge that they are winning a war. Perhaps this is simply a high IQ function that lesser types simply lack? The ability to think abstractly and to acknowledge a losing hand in poker or that the computer is about to put you in checkmate in a few more turns or understanding that the Yu-Gi-Oh! duel against your neighbor kid friend is going poorly, that is.

In fact, I believe that being able to see military realities are a very important skill for any COMMANDER of any kind of Future Resistance to possess. Wishful thinking is for women and priests. Grounded, gritty, military realism should be a mainstay among men of our disposition and views.

Sadly, it is not.