Is Russia Really Winning in Ukraine?

 Sun 4:36 pm +00:00, 7 Sep 2025  5

posted by pete fairhurst 2

Source: https://blog.algora.com/2025/09/05/is-russia-really-winning-in-ukraine

Authors Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

IGOR STRELKOV: THE SMO FORMAT HAS COMPLETELY EXHAUSTED ITSELF

(on the letter dated 30.08.2025)

(machine translated)

Thank you for the summary! – As always, a very high-quality material with logical conclusions. I believe they can be further commented on (as well as the information itself).

1) My conclusion that “the SMO format has completely exhausted itself and no longer allows hope for a military/military-political/’any kind of’ victory over the so-called ‘Ukraine’ (and a ‘compromise peace’, in my conviction, is initially impossible)” is indirectly but clearly confirmed by Moscow’s “backtracking” on the issue of “future borders” – The refusal to demand the restoration/transfer to the Russian Federation of the territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is only the first step “along the line of concessions,” but it vividly confirms the Kremlin’s inability to achieve on the battlefield anything more than small tactical successes “at great blood cost with minimal results.” Perhaps there are still illusions in Moscow that it will be possible to force Kyiv (by force or negotiations) to give up that “quarter” of Donbas that it still holds. Although, perhaps, such illusions no longer exist and Donbas is “the next stage of bargaining” and nothing more. But the problem is that:

a) ‘Ukraine WILL NOT AND DOES NOT MAKE ANY CONCESSIONS UNTIL ITS TROOPS ARE DEFEATED ON THE BATTLEFIELD’ (or close to defeat);

b) in the current state/format of the SMO, the Russian Armed Forces are not capable of defeating/bringing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the brink of defeat. Thus, even now (not just “tomorrow”) we face the urgent need to resolve the dilemma: “start preparing for capitulation” or PROCEED TO REFORMAT THE SMO into a full-scale ‘total’ war – FOR THE COMPLETE DEFEAT of the so-called ‘Ukraine.’ However, as I have repeatedly written, the Kremlin will gladly prefer to “drag out time as long as possible,” hoping for a “maybe” (unless, of course, the Chinese comrades suggest (with due insistence) a solution that better suits Beijing at this particular moment) – Personally, I hope that such a decision will still be aimed at victory over the enemy coalition, and not at “surrendering everything and everyone” (because “once you start surrendering, it is almost impossible to stop”).

2) I remain convinced that without a ‘personnel revolution’ (‘from above’), we will never be able to win this war – even if the ‘transition’ from the SMO to a more urgent format is successfully carried out. We simply will not be able to because “you can’t get oranges from aspens,” and those “modest geniuses” who managed to lose in the most (seemingly) winning situations over 3.5 years will never do anything useful in even more difficult conditions. The desire to “keep everything as it is, changing nothing except the current slogans” is doomed in advance and catastrophically.

I would especially like to dwell on the epochal (without quotes) event coming to an end—the actual foundation of the “Axis” Beijing-Delhi-Moscow. If behind the slogans and “pictures” there follows a real consolidation and formalization of this strategic alliance, going beyond the SCO framework—then, one can say—the world will change beyond recognition, and the hegemony of the USA/NATO/Anglo-Saxons will be ended in the very near future not just in words, but in deeds. It is a pity that Russia—in its current deplorable state—will be assigned an “auxiliary” role in this alliance, but better so than otherwise—at least such an alliance saves us from capitulation to the “West” and the subsequent disintegration of the state and country. However, it is also clear: of the three named powers, only Russia is in the position of the “weakest link” due to the prolonged unsuccessful and bloody war, as well as the “wild” number of Western agents in all branches of power. And it is this weakness that the USA and their allies will inevitably try to exploit in their efforts to destroy the “alliance of the three powers.” Hence the conclusion—we should expect a greatly intensified “pressure” on our statehood very soon, both from external and internal enemies (embedded since the times of the so-called “perestroika” and even earlier). And—therefore—I return again to my long-standing (since 2014) thesis: without large-scale personnel changes in the highest state apparatus, we will not only fail to withstand the challenges of the time—we will be completely “crushed and devoured.” Including the very “elite” that has mindlessly “celebrated the holiday of life” from 1991 to the present day inclusive. They will be devoured ALL (except for the most “deserved agents,” like “Chubais or Abramovich,” and even that is not certain).

In general, we must prepare for a great war and new attempts at destabilization. Unfortunately, there is a high chance that our thoroughly ineffective government (“thoroughly penetrated” by enemy agents) will fight “destabilization” exclusively by fighting us—the patriots who are “not for money” and who really want to pull the country out of the “drug addiction,” now turning into the so-called “withdrawal.”

Respectfully, I. V. Girkin
03.09.2025
/fragment of a letter to comrade Getmanov Alexander/