Special Military Operation Progress Report – Dmitry Orlov
Tue 10:59 am +00:00, 25 Feb 2025Source, paywall: https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/22279fa6-b4ba-459a-a058-bba5fe96e4ed
Obviously, Trump is not one to use the word “defeat” as it applies to America. Instead, he is going to put all possible blame on the Ukrainians: they fought badly, the squandered and stole American money, they are deadbeats who can’t pay it back, they are a dictatorial regime that cancels elections and uses political repression against opposition forces and, worst of all, they are terrorists who destroy American-owned pipeline assets on Russian territory, as has just happened.
and
Equally bad in Trump’s eyes are the European leaders who recently huddled in Paris and came up with absolutely nothing. These liberal cuckolds are puppets whom their new American puppetmaster has thrown in the trash. They will play no role in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Eventually, they are to be replaced with popularly elected conservative puppets who will be beholden to Trump and Trump alone.
and
With state-legal relations between the superpowers restored to factory settings, a new world order would become possible and we can even imagine a new Yalta, with Putin, Xi and Trump taking part. Trump today is much like Churchill was 80 years ago, his empire in tatters but still hanging on somehow. At this point, neither Britain, nor France, nor Germany, nor the little Europeans, would even be consulted. Decisions made by the big three would simply be handed down to them.
and
An interesting question is whether Trump will be invited to Moscow to celebrate joint US-Russian victory over Nazism, both German and Ukrainian, on May 9th.
Full text below
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This is just a progress report, for it is still too early to tell what the ultimate conclusion of Russia’s SMO in the former Ukraine will look like and, most importantly, where Russia will choose to draw the line between the Russian World it holds sacred and the Wild Field to the west of it, which it will decide to be of no interest. But it is not too early to say that the operation appears to be a success.
The main goal of the SMO was to protect Russian people on former Ukrainian territory, who had no wish to accept neo-Nazi ideology of the Banderite junta.
(Stepan Bandera is the great Ukrainian hero celebrated by the Kiev regime. He is, in fact, an assassin, a terrorist sentenced to death, sentence then commuted to life in prison in Poland, who was then freed when Nazi Germany invaded Poland. He then worked with the German Nazis to perpetuate acts of genocide against Jews, Poles, Russians and other minorities that shocked even the German Nazis themselves. After the war he fled to Munich, where he was eliminated by a KGB agent.)
In February of 2022 the Ukrainian troops, lavishly equipped and outfitted by NATO, were poised to launch a genocidal attack against the city of Donetsk and surrounding densely populated, industrialized heartland of the Donbass region. This attack was successfully thwarted. This was Russia’s first victory in SMO.
Since then, the goal of protecting the Russian population has been only partially met with the incorporation of formerly Ukrainian Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson into the Russian Federation. Although Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson remain under partial Ukrainian occupation, there is steady progress being made in liberating them. Over the past year, Russian troops have secured control over 5000 km2 of territory and, most importantly, have pushed Ukrainian artillery far enough away from Donetsk and its suburbs, mostly putting an end to the shelling of civilians by Ukraininan terrorists. There remain other regions of the former Ukraine, including, minimally, Nikolaev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Sumy and Kiev, that have been Russian for anywhere between three and eleven centuries. Their ultimate disposition remains to be determined and the goal of protecting the Russian population is at this time only partially achieved.
A major goal of the SMO was to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO and to stop NATO expansion toward Russia’s borders and its encroachment on Russian territory. Recent statements by the second Trump administration indicate that it has finally dawned on the Washingtonians that the Russians will never allow the Ukraine to join NATO and the plan to allow it to do so has been cancelled. This is a major breakthrough
A very important aspect of the SMO was in preventing any direct military conflict with the United States. This appears to have been achieved with the restoration of normal diplomatic relations between the Russian Federaiton and the US initiated by the Trump administration. The world was, for a time, in considerable danger of nuclear escalation thanks to the incompetence of the Biden administration and its senile leader, and it could have been made much worse if he were replaced by the mentally retarded Harris, but the world appears to have dodged that bullet, for now.
A stated goal of the SMO was denazification. The legalistic interpretation of this term is to make sure that Nazis are no longer in control of the Ukrainian government. But that could have been a temporary condition, given how easy Ukrainian politics has been for external forces (US State Dept., USAID, NED, CIA…) to manipulate. What Russia’s armed forces have achieved instead was a physical rather than a political solution and thus a permanent one: the physical elimination of most Ukrainian Nazis. They are mostly dead and, given the Ukraine’s absolutely dismal birth rate and rapid depopulation, unlikely to regenerate in any great numbers. Nevertheless, there remains a large number (tens to hundreds of thousands) of Ukrainian Nazi war criminals for Russia to round up and process. Just as with the Nazi hunters after World War II, this process could take many decades.
Although it was not a stated goal of the SMO, a nice-to-have for Russia is the elimination of the Ukraine, being a hostile state, as one able to create armaments with which to threaten Russia’s security. This goal has been achieved to a large extent. Almost all industrial production in the Ukraine (once the most highly industrialized part of the USSR) has been permanently shut down. All that remains is a bit of cottage industry organized to assemble drones with which the Ukrainians attack Russian territory, causing limited damage.
Also a nice-to-have was the reintegration into Russia of the most valuable land, both fertile farmland and the natural resources under it, which had been carved off from Russia and reassigned to the newly created Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by V.I. Lenin shortly after the Russian Revolution. The use of these resources is already giving Russia’s economy a very welcome boost.
Another welcome side-effect was the 2-3 million population boost Russia has received from the residents of Russia’s new regions as well as from the Russians who have fled territories still held by the Kiev regime. There is a continuous flow of people out of Kiev-held territories to the European Union and from there to Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow, where a filtration center has been established. The influx of people from the former Ukraine is helping alleviate Russia’s personnel shortage which has been restricting its fairly rapid economic growth (around 4% per year).
A stated goal of the SMO was the demilitarization of the Ukraine. This was largely achieved during 2022, when the vast majority of Soviet-era weapons that remained in Ukraine were destroyed, but then NATO stepped in and rearmed the Ukrainian armed forces, first with Soviet-era weapons scavenged from various former East Bloc countries, then with weapons from Western Europe, the US and elsewhere. Because of this development, the task of demilitarizing the Ukraine underwent significant mission creep and came to encompass the demilitarization of all of NATO, in the form of depleting its arsenals together with its supply of mercenaries, roughly half of whom are now dead or missing. This goal has been largely achieved: NATO arsenals are now largely empty and will take many years to rebuild.
Thus, the demilitarization of the Ukraine has naturally expanded into the demilitarization of all of NATO. Given that the driving force behind NATO is the US, and that the US is broke (see previous article about the Debt Tsunami), this is a hopeful development for Russia’s security. Trump has recently proposed that the US, China and Russia all agree to cut their defense spending by half. This is a good start; the next step is for the US to cut its defense spending by half unilaterally, since it is the only one facing a large financial problem. The likely ultimate outcome — of the US pulling its forces back into its geograpic footprint, which is something it should try to do before the money runs out — is something that Russia and China could have only hoped for.
A stated goal of the SMO is to reestablish the Ukraine’s military neutrality. Leaving aside the question of whether the Ukraine will even continue to exist, this goal appears to be in reach now that Donald Trump has announced that there will be no US troops deployed in the Ukraine. There was until recently some question as to whether there would be NATO troops deployed in the Ukraine but Trump appears to have answered that question as well: if any troops from NATO nations are ever sent there, they would not be doing so as part of NATO and would not be covered under the fabled Article 5 which, some believe, provides for mutual defense, whereas it actually just provides for a possibly fruitless discussion of mutual defense.
Recent discussions among a select group of NATO members have made it clear that they have no interest in sending any troops to the Ukraine. Perhaps they have finally recognized that the Russians are serious about their demand that there be no foreign troops on Ukrainian soil. What it means is that these troops would be legitimate targets and subject to elimination. The small numbers of troops which all of NATO, Americans aside, could deploy to the Ukraine would make it a few weeks’ work for the Russians to obliterate them, given the rate at which they are attriting the Ukrainian military. The fact that the Europeans seem to be recognizing the folly of any such effort is a hopeful sign.
But such shifts are only the beginning of a process that should, in the end, lead to the dissolution of NATO, which should have been dissolved together with the Warsaw Pact, which ceased to exist 34 years ago almost to the day. At the time, US representatives made a solemn promise to Soviet representatives that NATO would not expand even one inch to the east. This promise has been violated and this situation now has to be rectified in order for Russia’s relation’s with the West to return to normal. The following countries need to be kicked out of NATO: Finland, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Dissolving NATO would achieve the same result, as would ending all US military involvement with these countries.
This effort is likely to take some time, but the first steps have already been taken by US and Russian representatives in Riyadh. What has been initiated there is a return of US-Russian relations back to factory settings, if you will, which must stipulate the following:
1. No Ukrainian membership in NATO ever
2. No US or NATO troops on Ukrainian territory
3. No Ukrainian or European role in ending the conflict
4. Russia is now a US partner, not an “aggressor”, and treated with due respect
5. No effort to isolate, destroy, destabilize or defeat Russia
At this point, such optimistic expectations do not seem totally unreasonable. It is important to note that for the first time in 30 years Washington has been forced to initiate direct contact with Moscow. It has been forced to take this step because it has been defeated in Biden’s idiotic proxy war against Russia, using the Ukraine as the proxy, and because it is in a dire condition financially and must slash federal spending. In turn, this requires slashing defense spending first of all, because much of the rest consists of entitlements that cannot be touched without upsetting the electorate. In spite of all the bad blood which Biden’s handlers have generated, Russia’s leadership is likely to be understanding and sympathetic to Trump’s cause, which is to make utmost efforts to avert certain disaster, since a bankrupt and defunct US federal government would be a danger to the entire world, Russia included.
Obviously, Trump is not one to use the word “defeat” as it applies to America. Instead, he is going to put all possible blame on the Ukrainians: they fought badly, the squandered and stole American money, they are deadbeats who can’t pay it back, they are a dictatorial regime that cancels elections and uses political repression against opposition forces and, worst of all, they are terrorists who destroy American-owned pipeline assets on Russian territory, as has just happened.
Equally bad in Trump’s eyes are the European leaders who recently huddled in Paris and came up with absolutely nothing. These liberal cuckolds are puppets whom their new American puppetmaster has thrown in the trash. They will play no role in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Eventually, they are to be replaced with popularly elected conservative puppets who will be beholden to Trump and Trump alone.
With state-legal relations between the superpowers restored to factory settings, a new world order would become possible and we can even imagine a new Yalta, with Putin, Xi and Trump taking part. Trump today is much like Churchill was 80 years ago, his empire in tatters but still hanging on somehow. At this point, neither Britain, nor France, nor Germany, nor the little Europeans, would even be consulted. Decisions made by the big three would simply be handed down to them.
An interesting question is whether Trump will be invited to Moscow to celebrate joint US-Russian victory over Nazism, both German and Ukrainian, on May 9th.
