US -IRAN WAR – Global Business Network
Thu 6:19 pm +00:00, 9 Apr 2026
Who the hell are you?
The guy you didn’t count on.
—Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, 2016
April 7, 2026
I’m back after five years with a short paper meant to further clear up all the lies and nonsense
around this topic, so I’ll try to be brief. If you’re not familiar with the Global Business
Network (GBN), I suggest you read my trilogy from 2021.†
I n 2011, Peter Schwartz, chairman and co-founder of GBN, published a book called
Learnings from the Long View where he provided three scenarios for 2025. The first one –
“the darkest” of the three – is called Cascading Crises.
In many ways, it’s an extension of the last decade. What we discover is this: that
9/11, the tsunami, the genocide in Darfur, and the fall of Lehman Brothers were
just the beginning.
Note the year of publication, which is ten years after 9/11. As we know, they didn’t stop at
their destructive 9/11 and Lehman Brothers scenarios. The next major event was Covid,
which was masterminded by GBN as well. It seems the show must go on at all costs. Based
on this, we can expect another “9/11” and “Lehman Brothers” event.
Looking ahead from 2010, I can imagine a number of events that can trigger a
cascading crisis. It might begin, for example, with Iran. As the mullahs come
close to actually carrying out a nuclear test, the West might find it necessary to
invade. That would lead to a widening Middle East crisis, an insurgency that
stretches from Iraq through Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. You can imagine
growing conflict in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, a succession crisis in Egypt, widening
wars around Israel in Lebanon and Syria, another Palestinian intifada, and unrest in
Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
How are these countries drawn into the conflict? Well, what I’m really talking about is
a kind of “war zone” that extends in both time and space stretching back to the
first Gulf War and all the way into the future. It is governed by one unchanging
narrative – that the U.S. is at war with Islam.
This is an agreed-upon fiction pushed by political extremists on both sides […] Terrorism is on the rise. War is big business […]
First, note the date: 2010. What else marks that year, do you remember? The Lock Step
scenario with a Covid-like event from that infamous Rockefeller report, co-authored with
GBN.1
Both the Lock Step and the Cascading Crises scenarios are “the darkest” among the
provided ones. Same year, two most disruptive scenarios by the same think tank that
ultimately came true. What are the chances?
Second, the first Gulf War started on 2 August 1990 and ended on 28 February 1991, lasting
almost seven months,
2
while this year’s war started on 28 February and could last at least
until September, which would be around seven months.
3,4
In fact, some experts are already
comparing today’s situation with the first Gulf War.5
In his recent paper on the fake Austin murders, which happened just a few hours after the
attack on Iran and were blamed on an African guy, Miles asked the following question: “Why
would this black guy, Ndiaga Diagne, be an Ayatollah fanboy?”6
Maybe Schwartz’s answer
would be something like this: “The U.S. is at war with Islam because this is an agreed-upon
fiction, since war is big business.” Short and simple.
Even the great engine of China begins to slow down as it is driven by its own
internal stresses and inability to manage systemic issues.
Just a few weeks ago, “China has set its target for GDP growth to a record low of 4.5-5%,
the first time since 1991 that the figure has dropped below 5%, reflecting an economic
strategy that is shifting away from export-led growth to a model that leaders hope will be
more resilient to external shocks”.7 This will be a part of the 15th Five-Year Plan from 2026
to 2030.
In this kind of fractious environment, you would see a lot of covert
protectionism. Very little of it would be acknowledged publicly. But there will be
lots of efforts to protect local jobs, local industry, and local wealth. In this world,
multilateralism is dead. To the extent that deals exist, they are one on one.
We read on the web that multilateralism has been in crisis – especially after Trump’s tariffs
and trade wars, and then unilateral moves against Iran – while nations are becoming
increasingly protective about their oil supplies by the day, as just one example.
Crime is on the rise in this world, cybercrime especially. We see increasingly
common disruptions of information systems and financial systems […]
There have been more and more news about cyber attacks against financial institutions and
critical infrastructure since Covid, also because of the current war. I assume they are building
the momentum for a “cyber 9/11”, or “digital Covid”, which the WEF warned us about a few
years ago.8 Another invisible enemy they can pretend to chase around the world.
Religious and ethnic conflict becomes ubiquitous, whether it is rivalry in the
former Yugoslavia or Christians fighting it out with Muslims in Africa. We see
the challenge to white rule everywhere. European and American civilization is
being challenged wherever it can be, including at home in the U.S. and in Europe
where non-white groups rise to challenge the dominance of the white Christians
in their own countries.
It just so happens that tensions between former Yugoslav republics have revived since Covid,
with conflicts between Serbia and Kosovo, the biggest crisis in Bosnia since the 1995 war
because of Republika Srpska region’s separatist actions, threatening attitudes between Serbian
and Croatian presidents, and attacks against the Serbian minority in Croatia, as well as
takeover of strategically important Slovenian companies by the Croats. All fake and
manufactured, of course, to exert control over the population, keep investments in the
military high, and direct the attention away from all the societal problems, especially after
the Covid genocide. Luckily, people are not falling for war rhetoric, with one Bosnian
woman saying on camera that “they [i.e. politicians] should send their own children to war”.
But you know that these tensions are fake just by looking at coats of arms and logos of
intelligence agencies in those countries. Not to mention the fact that the Serbian royal family
– who moved back to Serbia from exile – is related to the British, Italian, and Russian royal
families (and, with that, to all other European royals), and so are other upper-class boys and
girls from other former Yugoslav republics.
Serbian and Albanian coats of arms with a double-headed eagle (which is actually a phoenix),
meaning that both countries have been ruled by the same dynasties. The Serbian president said in
March that Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo are preparing an attack against Serbia, 9
but you can see this
is BS just by looking at the phoenix. Also, Serbia has applied to join the EU, so why would they be
attacked by another EU member? They are obviously playing the role of eternal troublemakers.
Left to right: The main Slovenian intelligence agency, abbreviated as SOVA, which literally means
“owl”;10 the main Croatian intelligence agency (old logo);11 and the Serbian military intelligence
agency.12 All with the same owl symbol, telling us they are as connected as ever – these three
countries have always been tightly linked, there was even a “Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and
Slovenes”, later renamed Yugoslavia. The Croatians removed the owl at one point to make this less
obvious, I guess. This symbol was used on old Phoenician coins and is still one of the favorite spook
markers, symbolizing the (neo)Phoenician stealth and covert operations.13 The CIA used it in a photo
on their Instagram page as a “clue”,14 and you can find it on logos of other intel agencies as well.
And what about Dodik, a longtime politician and President of Republika Srpska until
recently? He has a very peculiar surname for a Balkan boy, doesn’t he? It’s very rare and
limited only to that region, with Dodig being a more popular (albeit still rare) variant in the
Balkans.15 Maybe because – as per Donald Yates’s Book of Jewish and Crypto-Jewish
Surnames – Dodick is a variant of the Hebrew King David from the Bible (think also Dodi,
as in Dodi Al-Fayed, which is a Hebrew diminutive for David16). This reminds me of two
other politicians with Jewish surnames from the Balkans, namely Dominika Švarc Pipan (the
recent Minister of Justice of Slovenia, born in a region bordering Austria; Švarc is the Slavic
variant of Schwarz and is rare in Slovenia)
17 and Donika Gërvalla-Schwarz (the Second
Deputy Prime Minister of Kosovo, married to a German lobbyist and former politician,
whose father was a politician, as well).18 This is relevant because neighboring Slovenia are
Hungary and Austria, and Peter Schwartz’s parents are Hungarian Jews.19 But which other
famous Jew is from Hungary? That would be George Soros, born György Schwartz.
20 His
Austrian neighbor, on the border with Slovenia, is Arnold Schwarzenegger, yet another
famous Jew.21
You might even see a small nuke being used in this scenario […] It might be a
stolen Pakistani nuke delivered by a Yemeni Al-Qaeda […] We have seen the fake nuclear bombs being promoted in global trends reports by American
and British intelligence communities, along with the “energy transition from one type of fuel
(fossil fuels) to another (alternative)”,22 which is what we are seeing right now, since one of
the goals of this fake oil shortage is the push towards electric vehicles.
And the Top Gun: Maverick movie from 2022 came right on cue, since its plot mirrors the
fake US strikes on fake Iranian nuclear sites in 2025:
23
Uncanny similarities between film and recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
leave people baffled. Saturday’s historic U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities
were eerily similar to the scenario that unfolded in the 2022 hit film Top Gun:
Maverick. President Trump’s “Operation Midnight” attack was “unbelievably
identical” to the plot of the Oscar nominated movie […] Former Congressman Matt
Gaetz (R-Fla.) wrote, “I want to know who at ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ knew the
future.” 24
The main star of the movie is Tom Cruise, who also starred in Mission: Impossible – The
Final Reckoning from 2025, where nuclear weapons were a central plot. The film was
directed by Christopher McQuarrie, who happens to be one of the screenwriters of Top Gun:
Maverick. Both of these franchises are closely tied to CIA and DOD, which were one of the
major clients of GBN and Peter Schwartz, so I think the answer to Gaetz’s question about
who knew the future is pretty obvious. Another copy-paste scenario, for example, is the one
about Iranian high-level military and intelligence officials being killed by U.S. or Israel
during both first and second Trump administrations.
You might even see a small nuke being used in this scenario, perhaps to take out the
American base in Dhahran, as well as Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities there.
Dhahran was mentioned in the news just a few days after the attack on Iran, with the US
issuing a security alert about a “threat of imminent missile and UAV attacks over Dhahran”.25
It turns out this city is the administrative center for the Saudi oil industry, with Saudi Aramco
being the biggest oil company in the world and the most profitable company in the world,
surpassing Big Banks, Big Tech and Big Pharma. What you probably didn’t know is that it
was originally a subsidiary of Standard Oil named Arabian American Oil Company
(Aramco), later renamed to Saudi Aramco when the ownership transferred to the government
by 1980. The Americans started the oil operations in the 1930s and built a military air base in
Dhahran in 1944, later turning it over to the Saudis.26,27 But why would then Schwartz imply
that it’s an American base? I doubt it was a mistake. The Saudis are known allies of the U.S.,
which means the Americans are still in control of the oil business there. Why would they
leave such a profitable enterprise to the Saudis in the first place? It’s the same scenario as the
ones of Bahrain (close to Dhahran), Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, and even Venezuela,
where the oil business was started by Western companies at the beginning of the 20th century
and was turned over to local governments in the 1970s. These governments later founded
OPEC as a counterweight to the concentration of political and economic power of those same
Western companies. Although the aim of OPEC is to stabilize global oil markets, major oil
crises have occurred nearly every decade since the 1970s and have been often followed by
global recessions. For example, remember Schwartz comparing the events in his scenario to
the first Gulf War? The US entered a recession known as the “Early 1990s Recession” that
started a month before that war and ended a month after that war.28 So, the crises and the
resulting spikes in oil prices have been occurring right after the oil companies gave up their
businesses to local governments. Another thing we have to keep in mind here is that GBN is a
spin-off of Shell Scenarios – a group within Royal Dutch Shell dedicated to analyzing
potential futures to aid strategic decision-making – that was once headed also by Peter
Schwartz himself. We can see how all this is interconnected. All they have to do is write a
scenario for a fake war or conflict, which leads to a fake oil crisis, which causes a spike in oil
prices, which throws the world economy into a recession. And we can draw a parallel to
central banks, as well, since their creation was promoted as something that would stabilize
global financial markets, while in fact, major crises have occurred roughly once per decade
since the 1970s, the same as the oil shocks.29 The result of all this is an ever increasing
inflation putting pressure on lower classes, keeping our noses to the grindstone. It reminds me
of scenes from the Network and Wall Street movies about the world being a business, and that
there is no democracy.30,31 Sounds about right. Voting every four years or so is redundant in
this case, it goes without saying.
This leads to a rush away from the dollar. Oil is no longer priced in dollars. But
there’s no alternative currency, so we see money rushing all over the place. There’s a
dramatic fall in international liquidity. Gold becomes the international reserve
currency of desperation, hitting $3,000 or $4,000 an ounce. Economic growth
and trade are highly volatile. Recoveries are short-lived. Incomes are not rising.
Ron Paul wrote an article about the possibility of the dollar losing its reserve currency status
because of the war.32 Also, in 2010 (the start year of Schwartz’s scenario), the price of gold
was around $1,400 per ounce. It’s been rising sharply since Covid, reaching $3,000 in March
2025 (the end year of the scenario)33 and then around $4,500 in March 2026, which is very
close to his prediction. A fascinating cohencidence.
So that’s the really dark scenario. It takes the trends of the recent past into a
world where the system is fundamentally unable to cope. Consider this an
extrapolation of the Bush era, or a continuation of the Change without Progress
scenario.
The media is already comparing Trump’s war with Iran to Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
Change Without Progress is the darkest of the three scenarios proposed by Schwartz in his
book The Art of the Long View from 1991 about the world in 2005 (they are always made for
the next 15 years). It talks about “a future of chaos and crisis”, a “world […] in which
ruthless self-interest and corruption run rampant”, with a “widening gap between those who
have made it and those who are permanently locked out” and “a disdain for the welfare of
average people”. There are no big wars, but “global gang wars instead – small, short-lived
incoherent fights born more out of pride and bad temper than conflicts of real interests […] often started to divert a starving population”, where “instead of rigid alliances, there are
quick-paced, uneasy, tense marriages of convenience”. In a world that “feels more and more
frenzied” and where “all treasuries have been rifled by their own ‘first families’”, no one
expects it to be coherent any more. It “wastes its people, its resources, its money, its time, and
worse, its soul”. The EU breaks up and there are more wealthy people than twenty years ago,
but also “far, far more of the impoverished”, with the favelas and barrios spreading, but
“there are still a few remnants of the middle class”, nevertheless. The social mood is shaped
by decadence and the escape from it, and the extremes dominate. There is also “cynicism
about institutions and pessimism about the future”. The many small wars are “a popular item
on international news stations”, with commentators offering “play-by-play analyses of
mountain skirmishes and bombing raids”. There is a war zone on the U.S. southern border,
“as millions of Mexican refugees [seek] asylum, the United States [can’t] help being dragged
in”, while “constantly vacillating policy [keeps] the United States from improving the
situation or getting out of it”. After all the doomerism, the scenario ends with this: “There is
one good effect: it’s a great time to be a stand-up comedian. Anyone who can be sardonic,
cynical, and funny finds a willing audience everywhere in the world.”
The current measures used to reduce oil demand due to fake oil shortages are no news, as
well. Although the media has been talking about the IEA’s “10-point plan” released in
March,34,35 they forgot about what I call the “Irish scenario”. Namely, at the time of the “fullscale invasion” during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the Irish Independent published an
article about a confidential “high-level planning exercise” called Oil Emergency Exercise
between all the major state agencies and the government that proposed three fuel supply
deficit scenarios of various severity,36,37 with Covid-style lockdowns in case of fuel
shortage.38 The proposed measures across the scenarios were the following: work from home
for non-essential workers; limit on all non-essential car travel; strict limits on the amount of
fuel motorists can buy at any one time; implementation of an immediate and strict reduction
in the speed limit on motorways; introduction of an emergency scheme whereby motorists
with an odd number at the end of their car registration will only be allowed to drive or refuel
on alternate days; release of limited amounts of 90-day reserve stock to meet essential
demand; and activation of the Oil Emergency Allocation Scheme that would prioritize
essential services and critical workers, with other motorists told to limit their driving. If fuel
rationing were introduced, consumers would be separated into four categories. Tier one
would comprise essential workers, such as farmers and food producers, while motorists
making non-essential journeys would fall into tier four. Only designated critical service
stations would be stocked with fuel and they would only provide fuel to emergency and
essential services and workers.
Phase 1 measures: encouraging cycling and walking, avoiding unnecessary trips,
highway speed limits, work from home, use of public transport and fare reductions
(note the “Top Secret” in the bottom left corner on the right screenshot)
Phase 2 measures: bulk fuel distribution scheme, designated critical service station scheme,
emergency services scheme, critical services scheme, road fuel maximum purchase scheme
“The third and most extreme scenario […] is where gas and oil supplies cannot meet
the demand for electricity generation or farmers preparing to cut silage.”
These screenshots were taken by me from a video in one of those referenced articles
(probably from Irish Independent) at the time, but, strangely, I can’t see it now.
If we compare these measures with today’s situation, some have already been implemented
throughout the world, while the Irish, for example, also plan to give workers in 40 frontline
roles first access to fuel if levels became critically low, with the military or police checking
workers’ IDs.39 I can’t help but notice that Covid and its lockdowns started in the East, with
the first lockdowns in Europe starting in March, and so have these measures against oil
shortages started in the East in March. It reminds me of the Ides of March related to the
assassination of Julius Caesar on March 15 and popularized by Shakespeare’s “Beware the
Ides of March” line, signifying a day of impending danger, betrayal, or a turning point. Is it
just a coincidence that some of the topics discussed at the 2022 Bilderberg Meeting – the
same year as the “Irish scenario” – were continuity of government and the economy,
disruption of the global financial system, disinformation, energy security, fragmentation
of democratic societies, and deglobalization?
40 I doubt it.
Another thing that they discussed at that meeting was Russia, which has emerged – surprise,
surprise – as one of the primary economic beneficiaries of the current war, primarily due to a
massive surge in energy revenues and the temporary easing of Western sanctions,41 with
European oil companies still operating and keeping their investments there, despite the fake
embargo. Isn’t it amazing how many times scenario planners warned governments about this
or that thing and they never seemed to listen? Somehow, only big business profited from
these events in the end.
As we have seen, these people don’t back off from their plans and scenarios, although they
may retreat, at least temporarily, like they did with the Global Trends reports, which have
been discontinued after almost thirty years since my GBN trilogy came out due to alleged
partisan political motives, much to the surprise of many, noting that “the fact that similar
reports were produced during the previous Trump administration suggests that political
factors alone may not explain the current situation.
42,43 Another thing we learn from this is
that the National Intelligence Council – the body producing those trends reports – was located
at a CIA facility,44 which brings us back to Peter Schwartz, since he has also been a
consultant to the CIA.45
“And the big one was the Long Boom in 1997, which I argued there was going to be this long boom.
And I said there are a couple things that could break it: one would be a financial crisis, one would be
tension with China, and another would be a major terrorist attack against the United States. Oops
[chuckle], all three happened and the long boom broke.”46 Have you ever watched American
Psycho? BTW, it was released in 2000, and there are three scenes featuring the Twin Towers.47
These people are planning your demise – and their own – and they find it funny. Are you
having fun, too? Or would you like to change your future?
†Global Business Network: The Covid-19 Scenario Planning Team,
48 Global Business
Network: Part 2,
49 Global Business Network: The Finale50
Oh, crystal ball, crystal ball
Save us all, tell me life is beautiful
