Here is a breakdown of the available estimates from various sources.

1. Ukrainian Official Statements

Ukrainian officials are very measured in releasing their own military death figures. They have confirmed a number only once.

• Single Official Confirmation (February 2024): In February 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the war up to that point.

• Assessment: This is the only official number given by Ukraine. Western intelligence and other analysts often consider this figure likely to be a minimum, as it only includes confirmed deaths and may not fully account for all fronts, particularly during the intense periods of fighting in Bakhmut and the initial invasion.

2. Western Intelligence and Independent Estimates

Western governments provide estimates, though they often come with the caveat that these are rough approximations.

• United States Estimate (Mid-2023): A U.S. intelligence assessment leaked in the Pentagon Papers in April 2023 estimated Ukrainian deaths at ~17,500 with wounded at ~113,500. However, this assessment is now nearly a year old and preceded some of the war’s most intense fighting, including the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 and the subsequent Russian assaults. Current estimates are believed to be significantly higher.

• Other Western Estimates: Various European intelligence agencies have provided higher estimates throughout 2023 and early 2024. Some estimates in late 2023 suggested Ukrainian military deaths could be in the range of 70,000, with total casualties (killed and wounded) possibly reaching 120,000 to 150,000.

• Mediazona (Independent Russian outlet): Using open-source data, they have documented over 50,000 confirmed named Ukrainian military deaths as of early 2024. As with their Russian count, this is considered a verifiable minimum, and the actual number is believed to be higher.

3. Russian Official Claims

Russia regularly makes claims about Ukrainian losses that are widely dismissed by military analysts as fantastically inflated for propaganda purposes.

• Latest Claims: Russian officials and state media frequently claim to have killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, with figures often cited being over 400,000. These claims are not considered credible by any independent military analysis.

Summary of Estimates

Key Takeaways:

1. Official Ukrainian Figure (31,000): This is the only official number and is treated seriously, though many analysts believe the true figure is higher due to the intense combat since it was announced and the difficulty of accounting for all losses in real time.

2. Significant Uncertainty: There is even less clarity on Ukrainian losses than on Russian losses. Western estimates are often given privately or as a range.

3. High Cost: All credible analyses agree that Ukraine has suffered severe losses. A common assessment is that the overall casualty ratio (killed and wounded) is somewhat favorable to Russia (estimated at around 1.2 or 1.3 to 1), meaning Russia suffers more, but Ukraine is also paying an enormous human price.

4. Civilian Deaths: It is important to remember that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians have also been killed, a figure that is tracked separately by the UN and other humanitarian organizations (over 10,000 documented, but the actual number is believed to be much higher).

In conclusion, while President Zelenskyy’s figure of 31,000 is the official number, many Western and independent analyses suggest the actual number of Ukrainian military deaths is likely higher, potentially in the range of 50,000 to 70,000 or more, with total casualties being several times that number. The exact figure will likely not be known until after the war concludes.