Erdogan and Netanyahu meet reality in each other. Next up Trump.

 Sun 5:20 am +00:00, 22 Dec 2024  2

posted by Tapestry

Mohammad Marandi of Iran has extensive knowledge and deep understanding of the Middle East.

The Americans persuaded the Russians to invade Afghanistan in 1980, and promoted religious extremism to create a quagmire for Russia.  Saudi and US funded these religious groups.  These groups have now taken over much of Turkey.  With the euphoria of the victory of Al Qaeda in Syria is changing the culture inside Turkey.  Sufism in Turkey is very similar to Iranian culture.  The refugee situation will not be getting any better.  Turkey can’t blame Russia or Iran any longer as Turkey is now in charge of Syria.  The monster of religious extremism was created by the US.

Short term Netanyahu gained in Syria by overcoming his defeat in Gaza and Lebanon, despite support from the West and Erdogan.  But long term Israel is now seen as a brutal genocidal regime and can no longer hide behind the holocaust.  Netanyahu has now secured the Golan and captured three times more space in Syria than Gaza, including the highest mountain in Syria.

Erdogan is in this for himself, reviving the Ottoman Empire.  It will be a burden on Turkey as a country and Marandi doesn’t see Turkish control of Syria working, and it will bring load onto Turkey where the economy is dreadful..  Iran is not vulnerable to Al Qaeda, Taksiri groups but Jordan, Egypt, Western supporting countries in the region are very vulnerable to Al Qaeda.  In Turkiye people are very divided, there is a lot of discontent.  The financial burden of Syria on Turkiye will be immense.  Fighting with the Kurds in Syria has to play out.  If the Salafist ideology is pushed too hard in Damascus all the elites and expertise will leave to Iraq, Lebanon, Emirates, Qatar and other ME countries.

There is no money coming from US and the EU.  Europe is deindustrialising.  The US is approaching bankruptcy.  The burden of failure will land on Turkey and Syria.  Most educated Turks are completely opposed to what’s happening.  Erdogan assisted the genocide in Gaza.

US went to war in Iraq to fight Al Qaeda then put Al Qaeda to be the government in Syria.

Marandi survived two chemical warfare attacks in the Iran/Iraq war.  All denied.  Lies about mass rape.  Trump assassination attempts…. Baby incubators.  Mother ships. drones.  All manipulating the US public.  So easy for the deep state to do.

Iran needs to strengthen air defences and will have to hit back against Israel if attacked.  Iran is not a dictatorship as regards media.  Piers Morgan was invited to Iran to see how the media was quite open, and he refused.  They prefer to live in the narrative world they create.

The nuclear deal with Iran was deeply flawed.  The US created international law after WW2, and the Iranian team was outmanoeuvred in the deal.  The Iranians trusted the US to abide by their side, but the US failed to do so, and Iran had already made their concessions.  Like the Minsk Accords.  The West sees themselves as superior, and they have exceptional rights.  In the long run no one can negotiate with the US.  Erdogan is making Turkiye untrustworthy in a similar way.

An American attack on Iran would destroy the supply of oil from the Middle East, and destroy the world economy.  The number of refugees on the move then would be off the scale.  Trump should recognise Iran as a powerful source.  Trump murdered Solemani and is hated in Iran, and did massive harm in the region.  Iran will have to push back against sanctions.  If US attacks Iran, the world will be devastated.

Professor Marandi gives his own personal views.

Trump has no interest in resolving conflict in Ukraine, stabilising China or the Middle East, says Brian Berletic.  Syrian air defences/air force are now eliminated since the fall of Assad.  Now Israel/US can cross Syria, Iraq and get access to attack Iran.

Berletic describes the various US strategies to topple Teheran, as used worldwide by Washington to bring capitulation.  Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon by Israel’s occupation in Syria, as Israel flanks Lebanon along the border.  Israel/US can widen the wars in Syria to undermine neighbouring countries.

Russia will need to exit her Syrian bases.  Russia is moving many of her Syrian assets to Libya, where Russian supported factions control the majority of the country, and Russia trusts them, unlike Syria.  It would give Russia an airbase and a naval base in the Mediterranean, and could enable the eventual driving out of the US backed factions from Libya.

Ukraine – CIA has many bases in Ukraine organising covert operations inside Russia.  It is the US/UK carrying out the assassinations, the missile attacks and terror attacks inside Russia.

Oreshnik – the damage in Dniepro examined from satellite and discussed.  Only one missile.  They could use three or five missiles and destroy a huge industrial area in an attack.  The missiles can cut a hole in the roof and destroy underground facilities.  Ukraine has not invited media to visit the facility….2 square kilometre facility was attacked and individually targeted parts taken out.  Such a missile could severely damage a major airbase or other military facilities.  Five could render a major airbase inoperative.  The Oreshnik is now being mass produced.

The reason so much aggression/instability/acts of war now is so Trump can blame provocations/acts of war on the Biden administration.  Prosperity, peace is under threat from Trump just as much as Biden.