Kosovo – The West is stirring up trouble; Serbia is a matter about which Russia cares; Purpose is to distract Russia.
Serbia is surrounded by a chain of unstable micro states, over which Serbia has historical claims. Although Alexander thinks the situation will be contained, he, who knows this area well, feels it is an unsustainable situation, incredibly dangerous, and a powder keg, particularly as there are some people in the west who are willing to take dangerous risks.
With China, he feels that, as with Russia, trust in the US has broken down. XI spoke to Biden with a harshness and toughness which he has never used with a leader up to now. Alexander thinks that China now believes that the US is aiming to recognise Taiwan, and the Chinese, with restraint, are preparing carefully.
The West is now getting cold feet and rolling back sanctions.They are crumbling at the edges, being watered down, but the damage is done. He thinks the US has forced the EU and UK to retreat because of the mid-term elections. The oil price cap is unenforceable. EU and UK will be able to sell insurance to the shipping companies. Sanctions are not going to be enforced, but the EU, UK, and the US will be unable to buy Russian oil while other countries can. It is a smugglers charter.