The raw facts and numbers

The last remnants of the Ukraine’s Mariupol garrison are in the process of surrendering.

It’s been portrayed by Kiev and the “Ukraine says” Western MSM as an “evacuation”, a victory of sorts.

LOL.

Sure, it’s an “evacuation” on Russian buses, straight to the POW camps (or to a Donetsk hospital, for the wounded.)

The seriously wounded have all been taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, 15 or 17 miles to the east, which is being guarded by Donetsk soldiers in full kit—not taking any chances.

Putin has promised, if they like their doctor, they can keep their doctor.

Once all these supermen (and a few women) are collected, the total number of Ukrainian servicemembers in Russian, Donetsk, or Lugansk custody will be approximately 7000 to 7500.

According to a very reliable Russian war correspondent, who has covered Mariupol and surrounding areas almost exclusively since March, the breakdown of surrendering forces is as follows:

• Over 2500 living personnel in total
• Of whom, 404 wounded, of whom 55 non-ambulatory / seriously wounded
• Approx. 200 refrigerated corpses
• 3 Russian and/or Donetsk prisoners (one officer, two soldiers)
• Unit breakdown as follows:
• 804 members of the Azov
• The rest are mostly from remnants of the 53rd Brigade, 54th Brigade, 56th Brigade, 36th Brigade, as well as non-Azov personnel of the 12th Brigade of the Interior Ministry’s National Guard (military unit 3057, formal home of the Azov)

Those wounded not seriously or not at all, are being transferred to prisons in the Donetsk republic…..

…..where Russian investigators intend to hold nice chats with the Azov’s…..

…..against some of whom, criminal cases (e.g., for abuse/torture or killing of civilians, or of rebel captives) have been open in Russia, in some cases, for years.

Instead of a rescue on Macron’s limo or the Pope-Mobile, some of these gents will be breaking rocks north of the Arctic Circle until 2040 or 2050.

“Karma’s a bitch.”

At 0:58 to 2:00 of the below video, a group of Ukrainians walking out of the steel plant, prior to being bused out to captivity, are being searched for candy, cigarettes, girly mags, knives, nukes, and so forth.

Then, they are bused out.  This is but one convoy of reportedly 300 captives.  The whole show will probably last several days.

The impact

I just checked in with the once-great paper (now a USA Today-style joke) known as the Wall Street Journal.

They say, the Mariupol surrender won’t affect anything, because the city was already well behind Russian lines.

“Journalists”, LOL.

I won’t even get into the full brigade’s worth (at a minimum) of Russian and Donetsk forces that can now be redeployed to other fronts.

There’s a lot more to it.

The Mariupol surrender is a HUGE psychological break against the Ukraine.

Many Ukrainians—the Mariupol garrison and its family members throughout the country, and nationalist public opinion generally—lived in la-la-land for two whole months…..

…..thinking the garrison could/would be de-blockaded…..

…..then that the Pope, or Macron, or Lloyd Austin, or the ChiComs, or even Eurovision fans, would convince Russia to let the Mariupol forces simply… go.

LOL.

Now, everyone understands, if you are surrounded by Russia, you have two options: 

Surrender.  Or death.

That’s it.

There will be no de-blockade, the Pope won’t ride to the rescue, and Russia doesn’t care what its NATO enemies think. 

This is a huge psychological shift, comparable to what happened to the Germans after Stalingrad.

After Stalingrad, the Germans, if faced with an imminent risk of encirclement, with very few exceptions, ran the hell away (or tried to.)

And, the Ukrainian army, despite all the “Iron Cross” emblems on its hardware, is no Wehrmacht.

This bodes ill for the Ukraine’s attempt to hold and defend the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration in northern Lugansk—a hard-core Russian loyalist area, and likely the next big “cauldron.”

Those two cities combined, are roughly half the size of Mariupol.

Russian and Lugansk/Donetsk forces moving in on them, will be more numerous, and (by now) much more experienced than the forces that took Mariupol.

Now, today, the Ukrainians in this area, know that if (when) they are cut off, further resistance is pointless.

Will some resist, for some time?  Of course.

But it won’t be a two-month affair, as with Mariupol.

Again, it’s a shift in thinking.

TAP – What’s next up?  Probably a missile strike inside the UK or a significant British military loss, would be my best guess.  Somehow they have to convince the Ukraine luvvies that Britain is also under threat, and we have to sign up to this pointless war.  Either that, or the launch of bird flu panic is imminent.