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Deaths in England and Wales Have Been Below the Five-Year Average for 11 of the Past 12 Weeks

On Tuesday the ONS announced that there were 9,628 deaths in England and Wales in the week ending 28th May 2021. This is 232 fewer than the previous week, and 3.1% below the five-year average. Here’s the chart from the ONS:

Deaths in England and Wales have now been below the five-year average for 11 of the past 12 weeks. Over that time, there were 8,212 fewer deaths than you’d expect based on the average of the last five years. And note that, due to population ageing, the five-year average understates the expected number of deaths. So the true level of “negative excess mortality” is even higher.

The number of deaths registered in the week ending May 28th was below the five-year average in seven out of nine English regions. (Only the North East and North West saw positive excess deaths.) Compared to the five-year average, weekly deaths were 7.5% lower in the East of England, and 8.1% lower in the South West.

As I’ve noted before, the most likely explanation for persistent “negative excess mortality” in England and Wales is that deaths were “brought forward” by the pandemic.

Given these figures, and the fact that around 80% of adults now have COVID antibodies, it is difficult to see what possible grounds there could be to delay the full reopening. Indeed, the costs of remaining lockdown measures must be so vastly disproportionate to the benefits that the Government’s dithering – as Daniel Hannan has noted – is surely a function of status-quo bias.



3 Responses to “Deaths in England and Wales Have Been Below the Five-Year Average for 11 of the Past 12 Weeks”

  1. pete fairhurst says:

    So the vaxx isn’t killing lots of people here in the UK? If there was a tsunami of vaxx deaths then, they would surely show up here wouldn’t they? [they did in Israel] Hard to see them being able to falsify these numbers, so what is really going on?

    Is it that there are lots of very serious adverse events that are NOT fatal? There are certainly lots of those in the MHRA Yellow Card reporting scheme up to 26 May:
    12k blood disorders,
    10k cardiac disorders,
    14k eye disorders incl 209 blindness
    12k vascular disorders
    etc etc. None of which appear to be investigated in any coherent way

  2. pete fairhurst says:

    1,253 deaths in Yellow Card at 26 May

  3. Tapestry says:

    With people not being admitted to hospital for operations, counterintuitively this causes the death rate to substantially fall. This fall is then made up for by rapidly rising vaccine deaths, suicides and so on, leaving the overall mortality rate pretty much unchanged.