BMJ: 2020 Was Less Deadly Than Every Year Before 2009

ER Editor: We note one weakness in the BMJ piece by John Appleby discussed below by Lockdown Sceptics, and that is regarding the role of vaccines in death rates. Appleby says,

While covid-19 vaccines, improved treatment, and immunity by infection have started to reduce deaths this year, the pandemic is by no means over.

Infections and deaths went up again after mass vaccination got going (we appreciate that correlation does not mean causation). Gilad Atzmon deals with this topic head-on in this piece titled The Pfizer Massacre in Gibraltar.

Nonetheless, 2020 UK mortality data were clearly not exceptional.


BMJ: 2020 Was Less Deadly Than Every Year Before 2009


Leading medical journal the BMJ published a peer-reviewed article last week by John Appleby, Director of Research at the Nuffield Trust, that draws on ONS data to look at the 2020 England and Wales death toll in a historical context.

In terms of absolute number of deaths, 2020 was the worst year since 1838, except for the Spanish Flu year of 1918 (note that overseas deaths including war casualties are not included). (ER: Note that the total population of the UK is at the highest it’s ever been, with the largest proportion of elderly it has ever had.)

Total deaths in England and Wales, 1838-2020

However, as a proportion of population, it was only the worst year since 2003.

Deaths per 100,000 population in England and Wales, 1838-2020

Furthermore, once you take into account the fact that the population is getting older and standardise the figures by age, 2020 was less deadly than 2008 and every year prior to it.

Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000 in England and Wales, 1942-2020

Appleby for his part makes no attempt to downplay the pandemic death toll, pointing out that only in four previous years had there been a sharper increase in percentage terms on the previous year and they were all prior to 1941. It was definitely counter to the decreasing trend.

A point he doesn’t make, however, is that the historically low levels of the previous 11 years would have left an unusually large amount of ‘dry tinder’ (ER: elderly and sick who hadn’t succumbed to respiratory infections in previous years) for any novel virus to burn through. Plus, 2019 had the lowest age-standardised mortality ever, to the extent that if you took an average of 2019 and 2020, then that average was lower than 2015, 2013, 2012 and every year prior to 2011. While it’s fair to note (as Appleby does) that the coronavirus epidemic continued into 2021, with high excess deaths in January and February, it is hard to regard this as an earth-shattering death toll.

The graphs also make clear that previous similar pandemics, such as in 1957 and 1968, made only a modest impact on mortality and only for a year or two, notwithstanding the lack of vaccines or social interventions. There is nothing about this disease to think the long-term pattern should be any different that would justify some kind of radical, permanent change to the way we interact or organise our lives.

It’s important to remember that our immune systems develop and maintain resistance to a host of pathogens through being frequently exposed to them and that social isolation, where it is not merely ineffective, can deprive us of the opportunity to keep our immunity topped up.

The BMJ article is worth reading in full.



BMJ: 2020 Was Less Deadly Than Every Year Before 2009


3 Responses to “BMJ: 2020 Was Less Deadly Than Every Year Before 2009”

  1. sovereigntea says:

    Approx 10K UK reported deaths with Covid as the sole cause of death.

    Tot up the figures here & multiply by 10 as less than 10% of adverse reactions reported. Gives a figure of about 10k so far.

    Hence you are statistically as likely to die from the cure as the disease.

    Once age is considered we find that only the over 80’s tend to die of covid. So if you are under 80 you would have to be mad or stupid to take the so called vaccine.

    UK Govt MHRA figures here.

    For a medicine or vaccine to be considered safe, the expected benefits will be greater than the risk of having harmful reactions.

    Vaccine Analysis Profile – Pfizer/BioNTech

    Vaccine Analysis Profile – Oxford University/AstraZeneca

    Vaccine Analysis Profile – brand unspecified

  2. sovereigntea says:

    Have the wheels come off fiend Hancock’s waggon ?

    Daily Mail today

    Matt Hancock confirms booster Covid vaccines will be rolled out this autumn as he hails milestone of fully jabbing 10MILLION Britons but first jabs have slowed to a crawl

  3. sovereigntea says:

    “NO EXCESS DEATHS IN THE UK” Week 13, 2021

    Scroll down & hover your mouse over the UK on the map