Third COVID Wave Will Kill Or Hospitalize 60 To 70% People Who Took Both The Vaccine Doses Says Official UK Govt Model
Mon 12:35 pm +01:00, 26 Apr 2021 7According to projections by UK’s top modelling agency the thrid wave of COVID-19 spike will hospitalize and kill 60 to 70% of those people who took both the vaccine doses. The paper suggests that the resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths will dominated by those who have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.
The modelling (read below in full) was presented to the UK’s top scientific advisory body Sage by one of its sub groups, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational (SPI-M-O).
This committee of academics has done modelling work throughout the pandemic and has looked at the impact vaccination will have on hospital admissions, infections and deaths.
Its findings suggest that a third wave is inevitable but that the size of the spike in cases depends on the effectiveness of vaccines, the speed at which restrictions are eased and the impact new variants have on transmission and illness.
It suggests that the resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths will be “dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine”.
“Maintaining a large reduction in transmission from such measures after Step 4 [England’s plans to remove all restrictions from June 21] is taken is almost certain to reduce the size of the subsequent resurgence.
This latest modelling reinforces this finding, as lower adherence to baseline measures and the resulting increased transmission could lead to a peak close in scale to that seen in January 2021.”
The paper looks at a range of possibilities what we can expect from Covid as we ease restrictions going into the summer.
It takes into account a range of difference sources including modelling from the University of Warwick, Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“Scenarios with little transmission reduction after step 4 [full lifting of restrictions planned for June in England] or with pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptions can result in resurgences in hospitalisations of a similar scale to January 2021.”
The paper suggests that the resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths will dominated by those who have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.
“The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.
This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated
individuals.”
of those admitted to hospital (left) or dying (right) over time. Top plots are absolute numbers, bottom plots are proportions.
As soon as the model was made public Fact-checkers tried to debunk and downplay the fact that 60 -70% of those who took 2 doses on the vaccines will dominate the third wave.
Here is the verdict by Grace Rahman of Full Fact:
Modelling suggests that when a third wave occurs, hospitalisations and deaths will mostly be in those who’ve been vaccinated. This is because so many vulnerable people will have been vaccinated by then, not because the vaccine is harming them.
And yet, the fact-checker insists vaccines have nothing to do with the third-wave.
The article appears to very misleading because it seems to conflate,
60/70% of the third wave, with
60/70% of the 2 dose recipients….
This is NOT what the government model appears to be doing. They are modelling the third wave, NOT the total 2 dose vaxx recipients…..
The latter would be many millions which I find very hard to believe
Also we should bear in mind that this is government modelling, which is often [usually?] complete garbage.
Witness Fergusons first covid wave 500k dead in the UK. And ALL their climate change models, which are notoriously complete doggy doo doo, never, ever accurate…
All we can do is ‘hope’, right? 60-70% of the idiots taking this poison would help clean up the gene pool considerably, right?
Remember; It couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people, given that these idiots are what bought this lie in such massive numbers, putting the rest of us in this mess.
A third wave, and even a second, is counter to what’s happened with all previous viruses, so it’s not difficult to conclude that yes, this is meaningless.
We have many friends who’ve had both vaccines. We hope the worst forecasts are wrong. But we need to be realistic and prepared for the worst if it happens. The current economic boom would soon turn to a bust if half the population becomes seriously ill or dies. It will be a horrific period to live through, but better to live through it than succumb to it. You need to be half in denial to maintain a cheerful outlook. I can’t go all the way with Occam’s viewpoint as we know too many good people who just won’t listen to advice but otherwise are loyal and helpful and kind. Weaver tried to tell her friends but they asked her to stop talking about it. We’ve done all we can.
I had the same experience with friends as Weaver many years ago; I was asked to stop sending them information; they would do their own research. Family members just ignored what I sent. So since then I have pretty much left them to it. And this was all long before things became as blatantly serious as they are now. Their souls must have their own path they wish to pursue.
Me too danceaway, recently with several friends. It seemed that there was a flat refusal even to read and consider my evidence, which was factual and fully sourced. Made no difference, they went ahead and had the vaxx anyhow. All are intelligent folk too but were blinded by the relentless propaganda that they had suffered for 9 months I suppose