“Second Wave” Fizzling Out

Another day brings yet more evidence that the second wave ripple continues to dissipate. Backing up the findings of the Imperial React study published on Thursday, the ONS study released on Thursday shows an even greater drop off in new infections, falling from an estimated 9,600 a day last week to 8,400 a day this week. This suggests that, far from continuing to grow exponentially as per Witless and Unbalanced’s graph of doom, the outbreak has already entered a phase of decline. Christian Yates in the Medical Xpress provides further confirmation of this trend from hospital admission rates and the number of calls to emergency services and the NHS.

The Government, inevitably, will claim it’s due to their latest restrictions, and as usual present no evidence but just wave their hands in front of wiggly graphs. But the truth is that cases have been growing fastest in the regions that have been placed under local lockdowns, as the Mail illustrates.

In light of this, the Mail questions whether local lockdowns are really effective or worthwhile.

There are now concerns that Luton will follow in the footsteps of Stockport and Wigan and see even more restrictive measures reintroduced just weeks after they were eased.

If this becomes the case, it will mean not a single town, city or borough in England will have successfully turned around a COVID-19 outbreak with the help of a local lockdown.

Experts say it raises questions about whether the juice is really worth the squeeze, as local businesses go bust and people are forced to go weeks without seeing their loved ones due to the targeted measures.

Meanwhile, in Madrid, dubbed the “capital of Europe’s second wave”, hospital occupancy continues its downward trend, now sustained for over a week. Importantly, the decline in infections predates any Government intervention, showing that it is most likely the result of acquired population immunity. And, of course, the Spanish Government has ignored this positive data and just placed Madrid under a local lockdown of sorts, imposing a rule of six and a 10pm curfew.