Excess deaths now trending below five year average.
Tue 12:11 pm +01:00, 28 Jul 2020
1.Main points
- The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 17 July 2020 (Week 29) was 8,823, this was 133 deaths more than Week 28.
- In Week 29, the number of deaths registered was 3.0% below the five-year average (270 deaths fewer), this is the fifth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments was also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 766 higher than the five-year average.
- Of the deaths registered in Week 29, 295 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 17 weeks and a 19.4% decrease compared with Week 28 (366 deaths), accounting for 3.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.
- In Week 29, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes increased to 20.2%, while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 5.1%.
- The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased or remained the same across all English regions, except for the South East and South West. Seven of the nine regions had fewer overall deaths than the five-year average.
- In Wales, the total number of deaths was below the five-year average (seven deaths fewer) for Week 29, while the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased to 11 deaths registered (from 22 deaths in Week 28).
- Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 29, 63.4% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.7%) and hospices (1.4%).
- The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 17 July 2020 (Week 29) was 10,080, which was fewer than the five-year average (by 239 deaths); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 29, 303 deaths involved COVID-19.
2.Deaths registered by week
Figure 1: The number of deaths in England and Wales involving COVID-19 decreased for the 13th consecutive week
Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 17 July 2020
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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 8,690 in Week 28 (week ending 10 July 2020) to 8,823 in Week 29 (week ending 17 July 2020). The number of deaths was 3.0% below the five-year average (270 fewer deaths) (Figure 1). This is the fifth consecutive week that weekly deaths have been below the five-year average.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a large impact on the number of deaths registered over the last few months and is the main reason for deaths increasing above what is expected (the five-year average). The disease has had a larger impact on those most vulnerable (for example, those who already suffer from a medical condition) and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of COVID-19. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average.
The number of death registrations involving COVID-19 decreased from 366 in Week 28 to 295 in Week 29, the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths registered since Week 12 (week ending 20 March) when 103 deaths involved COVID-19. Of all deaths registered in Week 29, 3.3% mentioned COVID-19, down from 4.2% in Week 28.
In England, the number of deaths increased from 8,103 in Week 28 to 8,262 in week 29, which was 240 deaths fewer than the Week 29 average. Of the Week 29 deaths, 3.4% (284 deaths) involved COVID-19 in England.
In Wales, the number of deaths decreased by 22 deaths in Week 29 to 550 deaths, seven deaths fewer than the five-year average. Of these, 2.0% (11 deaths) involved COVID-19.
In Week 29, 13.3% of all deaths mentioned “Influenza and Pneumonia”, COVID-19, or both, compared with 14.8% in Week 28. “Influenza and Pneumonia” has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.
