Conservative losses to Labour have already been brutal (by 2.30 am). A couple of wins against the Scottish Nationalists by the Conservatives have hidden the true state of the bloodbath to some extent. The Guardian and the BBC have stopped updating the totals as they are so bad for the corporate system that thinks itself in control of us, and despite all their usual attempts to doctor the poll. It seems possible at this time of the night that the Conservative 330 seats could see nearer to 310 by tomorrow. Lib Dems are performing poorly and they’ve already lost one seat to Labour. It seems unlikely a Lib Dem/Conservative coalition will be viable, without some other parties joining in.
The SNP will be down to under 40 at this rate, with the Conservatives doing well in Scotland as well as Labour. It seems unlikely that a Labour/SNP coalition could be viable either, unless Labour wins keep spilling. Labour will be doing very well to get to 270 even then.
It’s nearly time to go to bed. It’s been a riveting evening. The scale of the catastrophe for the Conservatives is evidenced by the BBC stopping updating their charts. The news has to be assembled by flipping between channels. The shock is palpable. It’s wonderful that the pedocriminal austerity-peddling warmongers have been kicked where it hurts. Well done, Britain.
The BBC still hopes for better –
The BBC has now updated its exit poll, and converted it into a forecast.
Here are the key figures:
Conservatives: 322 (up eight on the figure in the 10pm exit poll)
Labour: 261 (down five)
If this is accurate, the Tories would be just four seats short of a majority.
That means, with the support of Northern Ireland unionists, they could expect to pass a budget and a Queen’s speech, and outvoteLabour, the SNP and the Lib Dems on key legislation.
Sky News has produced its own forecast for the final results. (The broadcasters share the exit poll, but after that, as the results come in, they produce their own analysis.)
They expect the Tories to get between 308 and 328 seats. Their central forecast is 318, which is four up on the exit poll, but four below the BBC’s forecast. (See 2.29pm.)
The Democratic Unionist Party is the largest party in Northern Ireland, with a narrow electoral edge over republicans Sinn Fein who refuse to sit in parliament.
Led by Arlene Foster, they are staunchly pro-union and pro-Brexit, making them a shoe-in for a Tory coalition.
In their manifesto they said categorically that they supported the nuclear deterrent — putting them at odds with historically anti-Trident Jeremy Corbyn.
They had eight MPs in the last parliament, and are expected to retain that number in 2017.
These eight seats could prove vital to the Tories if the 2017 shock exit poll predicting a hung parliament proves accurate.
It put the Tories on 314 seats — 12 shy of an overall majority.
Should Theresa May claw back just four of that deficit, the DUP’s backing could hand her the keys once again.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP’s leader in Westminster in the last parliament, said his party would talk to the Conservatives if they needed help to form a government.
“In a hung parliament scenario, assuming Conservatives are the largest party, of course we will talk to them about their desire to form a government.
“We are not going to make a prediction or set out in advance what our negotiating position will be because we don’t know at this stage what the scenario is.”