Is it to be arming terrorists, or fighting terrorists?
Turkey’s airstrikes in northern Syria have left 88 civilians dead over the past 24 hours as Ankara steps up its military campaign against what it claims Daesh positions there. On Thursday, Turkey suffered the biggest loss so far of its military campaign in Syria after over a dozen of its soldiers were reportedly killed by Daesh terrorists. Daesh has released a video of burning two Turkish soldiers alive, prompting Ankara to limit access to online social media.
Only yesterday, he was giving credibility to the propaganda device Nana Alabed used by CNN to create fake news from Aleppo accusing Russia and Syria of war crimes.
James O’Neill, a geopolitical analyst from Brisbane, told Press TV that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should make up his mind to go after terrorist groups or support them.
“If Mr. Erdogan is serious in what he’s saying about fighting the terrorists, he’s got to stop financing them, he’s got to stop arming them and he’s got to stop providing them with the ability to move in his country and Syria,” O’Neill said on Friday.
“On the one hand, they (Turkish authorities) are allegedly fighting ISIS (Daesh). On the other hand, they are saying from time to time they want to overthrow [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus and other times they are doing deals with the Russians in order to facilitate other changes.”
O’Neill said Erdogan is trying to keep several wars in the region at the same time.
“Turkey is juggling a different theater of wars in the same time and it’s not an easy position to be in,” he said.
“Turkey has to make up its mind exactly about what it wants to achieve in the Middle East. It cannot keep on pursuing policies that are fundamentally contradictory,” the analyst added.
Elsewhere, he said, while Turkey is a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Ankara is also a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The Turks, O’Neill said, are “under enormous pressure from America not to cooperate with China and Syria.”
Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007), Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge and Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). His latest book is Empire of Chaos
Let’s cut to the chase: Ankara 2016 is not Sarajevo 1914. This is not a prelude to WWIII. Whoever plotted the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov – a cool, calm, collected old-school diplomat – risks a mighty blowback.
The assassin, Mevlut Mert Altintas, was a 22-year-old police academy graduate. He was suspended from the Turkish National Police (TNP) over suspected links to the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) after the failed July 15 putsch against Erdogan but returned to duty in November.
It’s no secret Gulenists heavily infiltrate the TNP; so a particular outcome of the attack will be an, even more, relentless Erdogan/AKP crackdown on the Gulen network. The Turkish investigation will have to focus not only on the (major) security service fail at Ankara’s modern art center – but way beyond. It’s not very reassuring that Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu put out a terse statement a very long three hours after the facts.
The killer in a black suit and tie shouted slogans about revenge “for Aleppo” – the requisite “Allahu Akbar” included – in both Turkish and broken Arabic, something that might establish a connection to an Islamist group’s rhetoric, although that’s not conclusive evidence.
Timing is crucial. The hit happened only one day before the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran were scheduled to meet in Moscow for a key Syria strategic discussion. They were already closely in touch for the past few weeks on how to strike a comprehensive deal on Aleppo – and beyond.
And this right after the crucial, previously established Putin-Erdogan agreement, which implied no less than thousands of “moderate rebels” responding to Turkey’s commands being able to use a “corridor” out of Aleppo. Ankara was fully on board with the plan. That in itself eliminates the possibility of an Ankara-provoked false flag.
President Putin for his part made it very clear he wants to be informed on who “directed” the killer. That’s something that could be interpreted as subtle code for Russian intel already very much in the know.
The Big Picture
On the bilateral front, Moscow and Ankara are now working close together on counter-terrorism. Turkey’s defense minister was invited to Russia for anti-air defense system negotiations. Bilateral trade is booming again, including the creation of a joint investment fund. On the all-important energy front, Turkish Stream, despite the Obama administration’s obsession about its derailment, became the subject of state law in Ankara earlier this month.
Atlanticists are appalled that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran are now fully engaged in designing a post-Battle of Aleppo Syrian future, to the graphic exclusion of the NATO-GCC combo.
It’s under this context that the recent alleged capture of a bunch of NATO-GCC operatives – deployed under the US-led-from-behind “coalition” – by Syrian Special Forces in Aleppo must be interpreted.
Syrian member of Parliament Fares Shehabi, the head of the Chamber of Commerce in Aleppo, published the names of the apprehended coalition officers; most are Saudi; there’s one Qatari; the presence of one Moroccan and one Jordanian is explained by the fact Morocco and Jordan are “unofficial” GCC members.
And then there’s one Turk, one American (David Scott Winer) and one Israeli. So NATO shows up only via two operatives, but the NATO-GCC link is more than established. If this information proceeds – and that’s still a big “if” – these may well be coalition military personnel and field commanders, formerly advising “moderate rebels” and now a formidable bargaining chip in the hands of Damascus.
Both NATO and GCC remain absolutely mum; not even non-denial denials have materialized. That might imply a made in the shade deal for the release of the high-value prisoners, further strengthening Damascus’ grip.
It was President Putin who all but established a de facto Russia-Iran-Turkey axis dealing with facts on the Syrian ground – in parallel to the rhetoric-heavy, zero-solution UN charade going on in Geneva. Moscow diplomatically emphasizes that the work of the axis complement Geneva. In fact, it’s the only reality-based work. And it’s supposed to sign and seal definitive parameters on the ground before Donald Trump enters the White House.
In a nutshell; the five-year (and running) NATO-GCC combo’s multi-billion dollar regime change project in Syria all but miserably failed. Wily Erdogan seems to have learned his realpolitik lesson. On the Atlanticist front nevertheless, that opens myriad avenues to channel geopolitical resentment.
The Big Picture couldn’t be more absolutely unbearable for neocon/neoliberalcon Atlanticists. Ankara slowly but surely is veering the Eurasianist way; bye bye to the EU, and eventually NATO; welcome to the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. the China-driven One Belt, One Road (OBOR); the Russia-driven Eurasia Economic Union (EEU); the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); the Russia-China strategic partnership; and Turkey as a key hub in Eurasia integration.
For all that to happen, Erdogan has concluded Ankara must be on board the Russia-China-Iran long-term strategy to pacify and rebuild Syria and make it a key hub as well of the New Silk Roads. Between that and an “alliance” of fleeting interests with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the US, it’s certainly a no-brainer.
But make no mistake. There will be blood.