The Real Reason Why Trump May Be Doing Better Than Polls Suggest There is one major argument not yet addressed by the media that suggests Donald Trump is doing much better than polling indicates, but it isn’t because of a hidden base of Trump voters. No, the argument is that while Hillary polls better, her supporters are less enthusiastic meaning the candidate may struggle to mobilize her base on Election Day. This shows vividly in the demographics. © REUTERS/ DAVID BECKER/NANCY WIECHEC Poll: Clinton, Trump Tied Nationally in Race for White House Hillary holds nearly a 30 point lead over Trump among millennial (18-34 year old) voters, but trails Donald Trump by a slim margin among older voters. Hillary’s general election base of young voters favored her Democratic primary rival Bernie Sanders by a rate of nearly 9 to 1.
This begs the question whether these voters will actually show up to support her or whether these individuals will opt for a 3rd party candidate. Trump’s general election base – generally older voters – by contrast is the same group of voters who propelled him during the primary election. Trump’s core voter base will turn out in full. Poll modelling is based on the demographic make-up of previous election cycles such as 2008 and 2012 when younger voters showed out in droves, but the question remains to be seen whether millennials Hillary can drive turnout of young voters at rates comparable to Barack Obama. If not, she would still be leading but not by much.
It appears suppressing Hillary’s base of support is exactly what Donald Trump’s strategy appears to be — he knows that feuds will lower her voter turnout whereas his cadre of supporters will hold strong. In the words of George Bernard Shaw, “I learned never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” It seems that is a lesson yet unlearned by the Hillary campaign.