Serial, meaningless Pentagon/NATO provocations have already resulted in Russia boosting its considerable self-defense capabilities. Predictably, Beijing is fully supportive. The entire geopolitical balance of power has slowly but surely shifted against Washington for no reason at all; for years the Kremlin aimed at a profitable partnership encompassing «Lisbon to Vladivostok». As for the EU, like the Tower of Babel, the cracking up proceeds unabated.
So the only real military issue – in Europe – is the substitution of offensive missiles for worthless defensive missiles in Poland and Romania; if things would ever get hot these two are at serious risk of destroying themselves. As I’ve shown before, Russia is ready for war and its defensive missiles are way ahead of the Americans. Essentially the US cannot penetrate Russia’s airspace, but Russian nuclear missiles can penetrate American airspace. MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) no longer applies.
Russia, though, will never conduct an armed attack on NATO – and that has been spelled out in full, over and over again, by the Kremlin and the Ministry of Foreign Relations. But then again Pentagon/NATO provocations on the edge of Russian territory – especially Kaliningrad – might well turn into a Gulf of Tonkin, and then all bets are off.
Why this madness? Simple. It all harks back to the Pentagon’s Joint Vision 2020, a.k.a. Full Spectrum Dominance, with its implied «freedom» to operate «in all domains – space, sea, land, air and information». It harks back to the myth of the US’s «benevolent hegemony» keeping at all costs what is defined as a «rules-based international order» – political and geo-financial – obviously «supervised» by the hegemon.
This arrangement not so subtly implies that both Russia and China, as challengers of the «order», are provoking chaos – and not the Empire of Chaos itself. Call it a slightly more nuanced version of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC).
Meanwhile, in real life, the Pentagon noticed it is behind on where it really counts – and where Russia is already generations more advanced; offensive and defensive missiles (and submarines). US aircraft and missiles are relatively sitting ducks against Russian defense missiles like the S-500 that seal its airspace.
The S-500s began their rollout in 2015. It’s around a five year per generation rollout. That means that the next generation – let’s call them, for the sake of argument, the S-600s – will be rolled out in 2020. The US rolls out a new generation every ten years – which would mean the US could be over a whopping four decades behind Russia, which is twice as fast in missile development than the US. President Putin has already hinted, on the record, his chief concern about the US missile defensive system was substitutability. His concern is that offensive missiles may be placed in the same launchers as the new ground Aegis Ballistic Defense System (that the Israelis say is actually inferior to the Russian S-300s).
So, to cut it short, yes; Pentagon/NATO-Russia relations have reached the most dangerous crossroads in modern history. All bets are off if we have a Full Spectrum Dominatrix in Washington in 2017. It will be virtually impossible to steer her «We came, we saw, he died» mentality to a soft landing – which means the Empire of Chaos engaging in nuclear WWIII (or WWIV, depending on taking the Cold War into account) remains a dire possibility.
Chinese President Xi Jinping received Putin in Beijing the day after Brexit. Russia and China are increasingly attracted to each other as they both seriously worry about the geopolitical void consuming the West. The only serious interlocutor, for both, is Germany – which happens to be the Promised Land, and one of the key final destinations, of the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. One Belt, One Road (OBOR). Imagine a perfect alignment, in a not too distant future, of Beijing, Moscow and Berlin (BMB). That also happens to be, historically, the ultimate Anglo-American nightmare.
The industrial military counterinsurgency surveillance complex is absolutely terrified of war scenarios gaming how Russian – and Chinese – submarines would be capable of blocking trans-ocean shipping from Asia to the US. Key components for all of the US’s weapons are manufactured in Asia. In the event these submarines can block the seas, the mighty military industrial counterinsurgency surveillance complex would simply collapse.
The Pentagon is, predictably, hysterical. This would mean these industries must be repatriated to the US. This would mean the US dollar would have to fall so that it makes economic sense to return these industries to the US. And that leads to some powerful players in New York rationalizing that Donald Trump is being supported by some deep, invisible forces for this purpose – and this purpose alone. Trump’s speeches, for all their rambling, keep a constant; he always stresses he will rebuild the US military, and he will bring US industries back home.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon/NATO/parts of the EU no holds barred confrontation with Russia now carries the status of official policy, for the foreseeable non-Trump future. But still it’s inescapable to be back to that juvenile mind game syndrome. Would anyone seriously believe that the United States will risk launching a nuclear war and kill at least 200 million Americans for the sake of…Poland? Or…Estonia?