It wasn’t that long ago that the possibility of Britain leaving the EU, was considered far-fetched. While a significant segment of the population was eager to be rid of the economic union, they were still in the minority. In fact, euroscepticism hasn’t been a mainstream idea in Britain until recently. Now for the first time since Britain joined the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU), it looks they’re probably going to leave.
When it was first announced earlier this year that British citizens would have the opportunity to vote to leave the EU on June 23rd, it seemed like a long shot. But with increasing concerns over unfettered immigration from Muslim countries, a situation that has been enabled by the EU, polls are leaning more towards a Brexit than they ever have before. In fact, for the very first time, pretty much every poll shows that more people want to leave the EU than stay.
According to the YouGov poll for The Times, “Leave” held 46 percent support compared with 39 percent support for “Remain.” Undecided voters were 11 percent, while 4 percent won’t vote.
Last Monday The Times/YouGov had reported a 1 percent lead for the “Remain” campaign…
Other polls published on Monday also put “Leave” ahead, while betting odds on Brexit narrowed.
An ORB poll for The Daily Telegraph put support for “Leave” at 49 percent, compared with Remain’s 48 percent, while two ICM polls, one online and one conducted by telephone, found “Out” held 53 percent support compared with 47 percent support for “In,” the Guardian newspaper, which sponsored the telephone poll said.
That compared with a 52-48 percent split in favor of “Out” in ICM polls two weeks ago, the Guardian said. Those polls excluded respondents who answered “don’t know.”
Unless something drastic reverses this trend, Britain will be on its way out of the EU, and they’ll be the first country to do so. And that could have some pretty serious consequences for the global economy.
For starters, a Brexit could be the first domino to knock down the entire EU system. While Britain makes a fairly small economic contribution to the EU compared to other countries, they have paid more in EU membership fees than they have gotten back, almost every single year since they first joined. Britain would be a financial loss for the EU, which is something that the EU can’t afford considering that they’re walking on economic thin ice at all times.
At first a Brexit wouldn’t mean much for the EU, but after a while it would be catastrophic. Initially it will hurt Britain’s economy, which will have to adjust to the change. Already investors are pulling out the pound, since they expect the Brexit to hurt the economy. But since Britain would no longer be tethered to the EU’s absurd and onerous regulations, their economy would eventually soar. And that will be the death of the EU.
Once their member states realize that they’re now responsible for more of the EU’s debt, and once they realize that countries that leave the Eurozone are more successful, there will be a race for the exits. The next country that decides to leave (most likely a country that’s also paying more into the system than they’re getting back) will also become successful, and leave behind more debt for the EU to carry. And so it will go until the only nations that remain are the ones that are total basket cases. The union will totally crumble at that point, since those nations won’t be able to sustain the system.
As far as the global economy is concerned, this will be a major blow, but one that is necessary. The EU is a significant drag on the global economy, but when it goes a lot of wealth is going to evaporate. If anything, an EU collapse could be the catalyst for the next global economic crisis. Just like the last global economic downturn, silver prices and gold prices will likely soar, but other than that, an EU collapse is going to hurt every other aspect of the global economy. It will take years to recover from the collapse of the most economically prosperous nations on the planet, but the renaissance that is sure to follow the death of tyrannical Eurozone, will make it all worth it.