Two good posters doing the rounds, and an article.
David Cameron and George Osborne say Britain can’t stand on it’s own two feat, Brexiters say
Analysis by civil servants forecast a 6% drop in national income, 2.4% rise in unemployment and £39billion increase in Government borrowing after Brexit in a worst-case scenario.
But the Whitehall document provoked the angriest backlash of the referendum debate so far, with furious accusations of deceit from senior Tories, anti-EU campaigners and leading economists.
Former Tory Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith described the forecasts as “unfair and biased”.
Arron Banks, co-chairman of the Leave.EU campaign, dismissed the Treasury report as “laughable and beneath contempt”.
“The Osborne Treasury will pump out whatever rubbish its master asks for,” said Mr Banks.
To say our economy would tumble into recession post Brexit is straightforwardly ludicrous.
“The key to any calculation lies in the assumptions made: garbage in, garbage out.
“The Treasury has put garbage in for the long-term effects of Brexit. These in turn underpin its forecasts of short term recession.”
Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne appeared together at the headquarters of DIY chain B&Q in Hampshire to make their gloom-filled predictions of life after Brexit yesterday.
The Prime Minister claimed a vote to leave the EU would create the world’s first “DIY recession” because voters would inflict economic pain on themselves.
The document estimated that that between 520,000 and 820,000 jobs would be lost, while house prices would fall by between 10% and 18%.
Britain could vote to leave the EU on June 23
Mr Cameron said: “As the Bank of England has said and the IMF has underlined, and the Treasury has now confirmed, the shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip the country into recession.
“This could be, for the first time in history, a recession brought on ourselves. As I stand here in B&Q, it would be a DIY recession.”
He said Britain had battled back from the last recession and should not put the recovery at risk again.
“After all the pain, all the sacrifice by the British people, why would we want to put it at risk again? It would be like surviving a fall and then running straight back to the cliff-edge. It is the self-destruct option,” the Prime Minister said.
Mr Osborne accused Brexit campaigners of accepting that some economic misery was “a price worth paying” for freedom from Brussels.
“It’s not your wages that will be hit, it’s not your livelihoods that will go, it’s not you who will struggle to pay the bills. It’s the working people of Britain who will pay the price if we leave the EU,” he said.
Iain Duncan Smith has also criticised the PM and Chancellor’s comments
Mr Duncan Smith described the Treasury report as “dishonest”.
“Every Treasury report has a central presumption from which there are downsides and then there are upsides,” he said.
“They have today chosen only to produce the downside. That makes this report categorically unfair and biased as a Treasury report.”
Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont both accused the Government of “scaremongering”.
Lord Lawson said: “The Treasury has enough trouble with forecasts even when they are trying to get them right.
“This time they have simply assumed a disaster in order to scare the pants off the British people.”
Lord Lamont said: “A lot of the Government’s so-called forecast depends on business confidence, which the Government is doing its best to undermine. Economists are no better than anyone else in predicting shifts in confidence.
Tory MP Tom Pursglove, a co-founder of the Grassroots Out movement, described Mr Osborne’s warnings as “patronising and deeply misleading”.
“To say our economy would tumble into recession post-Brexit is straightforwardly ludicrous,” said Mr Pursglove.
Alternative research from Prof Minford suggested quitting the EU could boost Britain’s GDP by 4% lifting the burden of Brussels regulation.
The Treasury had ignored the huge potential financial benefits from leaving the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and other aspects of Brussels red tape, Prof Minford said.
He said: “Calculations made by Economists for Brexit makes assumptions that do the best for the British people under Brexit- as was also the Treasury’s duty.
“These assumptions are that we ditch the CAP and the customs union trade barriers in favour of free trade, which we can do without any need for agreement from our EU neighbours.
This raises workers’ standards of living and we can still easily afford to help our farmers and other industries where necessary.
“Our forecasts show that these assumptions raise our GDP by 4%. Further, getting rid of burdensome EU regulation would raise GDP further.
“When we put this long term prospect into the short term outlook, the economy grows steadily faster from Brexit onwards. The only volatility will come in the very short term and that will soon be over, as the Government sets out sensible policies in the best interests of the British economy.”