The polls try to sell the British election just two weeks away as business as usual, a contest between two major parties. Yet talk on the street is different. This time, voters are more likely than ever to break with their traditional allegiances and move on. The hatred of the political class, as portrayed above, is at fever pitch – and it’s not just about money (see previous post). The long-running pedophile scandals have eroded any trust that was left in ‘the system’ to the point that people won’t vote for people like Cameron, Clegg or Miliband.
Who will pick up on the trend?
UKIP is the most likely to catch the wind, and the Greens.
The Tories are holding the threat of a Labour government out as the driving force to keep their team loyal and not wander off to UKIP. Yet with Labour unlikely to win outright, that threat is much reduced. Farage has said he’ll resign if he fails to win Thanet South, and that is what the pollsters (not all. See below) are gleefully predicting. But what if they are wrong and the beer drinking pub-frequenting man of the people is seen as the antidote to the robbin bastards. It would be a watershed moment were he to win.
UKIP’s economic policies are way ahead of Conservative, it has to be said, but their fracking policy is their Achilles Heel. At least they’ve dropped the nonsense of the fracking Sovereign Wealth Fund. For those facing Constituency fracking threats, and that’s hundreds of constituencies,mostly in Conservative areas, it seems the battle will have to be fought locally. If UKIP had gone the other way and opposed fracking/gas extraction, they’d be far further ahead. The Greens offer no fracking, but we’d lose what little is left of our freedom in the process.
The apparent choice is no choice. UKIP is the only option. In our Constituency, Shrewsbury & Atcham where I was the candidate for UKIP in 2001, that means Suzanne Evans, and I’ve recommended various friends to vote for her. They tell me her support is building, and the output from the Conservative incumbent, Dan Kawcynski, is focusing on the threat of UKIP. Never mind the polls which are merely attempts to influence opinion, not measure it. The ground is moving UKIP’s way. That is where the fun will be on May 8th.
New polling 1,057 residents of the South Thanet constituency polled yesterday: