Unless something happens in the next six months to dramatically change the situation, the election is looking very unlikely to produce a majority for any one party.
What might happen? Could the UKIP surge go ahead even faster? The problem is that there are two parties surging from nowhere, UKIP being one and the second being the Greens. If UKIP had adopted Green policies, such as banning fracking in Britain, and a ban on GMOs, their surge might have been enough to win a series bag of seats. But failing that, the surge from UKIP isn’t strong enough to overturn and replace the old two party system, only to cripple it. Could UKIP go green? If they did, they could yet turn the situation around and turn into a massive seat winner. There is not a hint of it happening, with Roger Helmer, UKIP’s Energy spokesman issuing statements of pure nonsense about the safety of fracking. Politics in Britain will be crippled. The power cabal will toy with us as they wish.
The two surging parties UKIP and Green are miles apart. Yet there is nothing stopping UKIP from going Green at this late stage, apart from the folly of the UKIP Energy Spokesman, Roger Helmer.
November 11th, 2014
The two charts above (click link) represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON and a LAB majority at GE15 on the betting exchange have moved to new lows together.
This is a odd phenomenon. Normally if the blues collapse then the reds soar and vice versa. Now, with less than six months to go, both appear to have deep problems which will make it harder to put up convincing cases to the electorate next May.
With LAB it’s the continued angst about the leadership while amongst the Tories it is the opening up yet again of the European fault line that has been so corrosive for nearly a quarter of a century.
All of this coupled with the rise of UKIP and the Greens make the general election even harder to predict. The public don’t like split parties or apparent weak leadership and we are in a remarkable state of flux.The opportunity is surely there for UKIP or the Greens but neither have leaders capable of resonating amongst voters groups outside their own bases.
Add onto all of this we have the challenges created by the first past the post voting system in each of the 650 constituencies. We could see many MPs being returned with fewer than 30% of the votes in their own seats.