November 23rd, 2014
The big methodology difference is in sampling. The phone firms used randomised dialling and theoretically anybody with a landline, and now mobile, can be included.
Online polls are generally carried out amongst members of a polling panel who perhaps are slightly different from the electorate as a whole in they’ve signed up in the first place and are doing the survey for money.
It was only when I was looking through recent findings from the different firms that I found the split featured in the chat above.
This possibility is confirmed by the latest Sun Readers Survey, except the 38 on Conservative might well be 35 to make 60 added to Labour’s 25, putting UKIP maybe around 30 points, maybe just 5 behind the Conservatives. If so it’s getting very close to a much bigger number of MPs.
Any enthusiasm for the collapse of the big two (once three) parties has to be tempered with the realisation that UKIP’s policies are little different, offering nothing to the environmentalist cause. HUman life is still under serious threat from The Infrastructure Bill, which is being rushed through Parliament before the next election. Were it not for the five year rule about elections, the current government would be collapsing, and such measure could be halted in their tracks.
Farage says no more defections please until after Christmas, but how can he stop them? A Labour defection would be ideal for UKIP at this stage, if they can get one. If Farage could get 30 defections quickly, and byelection victories secured, he could halt the Infrastructure Bill before the election on May 7th, and bid for power with an overall majority. The only thing lacking from Farage is ambition, and a feeling that UKIP has a mission to fulfil. Coming second is useless. Go for the top, Farage. Go for power now. Don’t wait. Seize the moment. Surely you could find thirty defections with the promise of candidacy and the surge continuing.
He says the next leader should be a woman. He could start off now by setting policy decisions through a policy review committee chaired and staffed with a strong female contingent. Maybe the women can see that the threat is not the LibLab Con but The Greens, who are also surging. Steal their clothes and UKIP would be unstoppable.
NEXT – Daily Express promises a poll tomorrow on page 5 placing UKIP in second place. The evidence is building. Just another two defections would be good to keep the momentum building. But where’s the destination? Carswell and Reckless are both Friends Of Israel, as is UKIP. It might unsettle the system a little though if there was a total collapse of the two major parties. Anything has to better than just more of the same. ALthough the fear is that UKIP might turn out to be just more of the same anyway!