46% Brits Want Out Of The EU. 30% Want To Stay.

Roger Helmer’s newsletter from Brussels.
Osborne says that the €uro crisis is doing huge economic damage, not least in the UK.  And in my view, he’s right.  So he says it’s urgent for the eurozone to proceed to full fiscal (and therefore political) integration.  But there, I fear, he’s wrong.  And I’m not alone.  My namesake the excellent economist Roger Bootle takes the view that a €uro break-up would be the first step to recovery.  Of course it would result in short-term chaos, but would that be much worse than what we have now?  Ask the Greeks and the Spanish.
And in the medium-term, as national currencies recovered fair value, real economic recovery could begin, ushering in growth and jobs.  It could be like “Golden Wednesday” when Britain left the ERM in 1992.  Recovery started right there and then.
Just now the media are rejoicing about the Spanish bail-out, although there’s a big question whether €100 billion will do the job.  But there’s an even bigger question: why do they expect that merely pulling bankrupt banks back from the brink will, by itself, kick-start economic recovery?  It won’t.
The only way that Greece and Spain and the other €uro-Med countries will get back in the game is to have competitive currencies.  Within the €uro, their exports and their labour markets can never recover competitiveness.  So the message for George is this: The €uro is the problem, not the solution.  It is a universal bankruptcy machine.  Any plan that fails to dismantle the €uro will fail to achieve recovery.
Brussels (and Berlin & Frankfurt) have a choice.  Either they dismantle their beloved single currency, in as orderly a way as they can manage.  Or the markets will do it for them, in a very disorderly way indeed.  Piecemeal bailouts are not the answer.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the €uro débâcle
“The EU machinery (European Financial Stability Mechanism, EFSF, and European Stability Mechanism, ESM) exists largely on paper, a €500 billion declaration of intent … bureaucrats should not take it upon themselves to force sovereign democracies to their knees … All we know is that the current policy is hopeless”.

On June 11th, we saw markets surge with optimism following the €100 billion Spanish bank bail-out.  By the end of the day, and into June 12th, we saw them crash back.  “He marched them up to the top of the hill, then he marched them back again”.  One step forward, two steps back for the €uro.

There’s a pattern here.  Earlier bail-outs seemed to last for months, or at least weeks, in terms of restoring sentiment and encouraging the markets.  Now they’re dismissed within hours.  The €uro is like a drug addict who finds he always needs a bigger fix than last time to get the same high.

Financial Times: The people want an EU referendum
FT 21st  May 2012   Page 2
ComRes poll: 
30% want to stay in EU
46% want to leave   
26% don’t know
(TAP – that adds up to 102%, Roger!)
As this ComRes poll in the Financial Times shows, both Labour and the Tories are under pressure to clarify their position before the 2014 Euro elections when the UK Independence Party hopes to build on the 16.5% vote share and 13 seats it secured last time.
The UKIP factor is particularly threatening to Mr Cameron. Yesterday’s poll found that 10% of those who had voted Tory in 2010 had already decided to switch to UKIP, and a further 26% were ‘seriously considering’ doing so.  Apologies for not including a link to the results — the FT online is behind a pay wall.

TAP – Roger Helmer is a trusted ‘brand’.   He’s never wavered once from his position of Eu skepticism.  He supported Cameron and Osborne into office.  Now he sees them for what they truly are, after seeing them sign into Euro bail-outs and refuse the promised referendum.  Whatever party he’s in will benefit greatly.  Since he quit the Conservatives, that party is now UKIP.  UKIP should surge to largest party in the 2014 Euro elections.  That might set things up for a Westminster surge in 2015.

Whatever happens, Cameron’s ‘caring’ and ‘compassionate’! Conservatives are going to take one helluva pasting.  

Meanwhile have a good laugh at the eurocrats with Nigel Farage.

The Tap Blog is a collective of like-minded researchers and writers who’ve joined forces to distribute information and voice opinions avoided by the world’s media.

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