The Party’s Over. YouGov Has Lib Dems On 8%.

Cameron’s strategy of linking with the Lib Dems is in tatters, not because he couldn’t keep the coalition together, but because the Lib Dems are disappearing.  In the latest YouGov Poll, they are on 8%!!!

The left wing of British politics has consolidated behind the unlikely Ed Miliband at about 42%, while the ‘right’ wing is divided between a Lib Dem rump of 8% down from 22% at election time!, 37% supporting Conservative and maybe 6% supporting UKIP.

You can never extrapolate trends and expect to be proved right, but if today’s EU Bill debate goes against Conservative backbenchers and they don’t flex their muscles and bring Cameron to heel, you could imagine support for UKIP surging to over 10% and Conservative support slipping back to under 35%.  Even with every remaining Lib Dem vote going Conservative, an unlikely scenario,  Cameron and Hague would be well short of a majority, even in a fair electoral system.

The only way to put Humpty Dumpty back together again, from there, will be for UKIP to be pulled into a coalition.  Things are moving far faster than anyone expected.  No doubt there will be more unexpected outcomes on their way.  Commentators will be lost for words as they struggle to fit the given narrative to what is actually happening.

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5 Responses to “The Party’s Over. YouGov Has Lib Dems On 8%.”

  1. UKIP are more likely to be part of the problem rather than the solution. The root of the problem is the state, which directs the agenda for whichever party or coalition takes the reins; regardless of the grass roots values and attitudes of the electorate and the party faithful, the elite always have their way. Have you ever wondered why anti-EU parties like UKIP and BNP field candidates (and have MPs) in Brussels/Strasbourg? Their presence there is by default a tacit agreement to the EU’s right to exist. Although I don’t have any political sympathy with Sinn Fein, they at least refused to send an MP to Westminster because they didn’t want to be seen to cosy up to the adversary..

  2. Tapestry says:

    I’m inclined to agree with you, but every now and then a political leader not in the system, like Thatcher or IDS, makes it to the top of the pile for a period, and some progress can be made.

    UKIP is penetrated by the security services, and is tolerated inasmuch as it clips the wings of the Conservatives. It has always been a bit of a joke, but who knows, the joke might become more serious if its numbers keep swelling.

    Where will disaffected Conservatives go as Cameron and Hague sell us out?

    None of us knows the future. The elite have had it all their own way a very long time, but slowly people are awakening to the awfulness of what they is doing.

  3. Tapestry says:

    what they is doing? Apologies to Ali G.

  4. Twig says:

    @Caedmon’s Cat
    I see UKIP MEPs as more of a spanner in the works for the EU, until they gain sufficient traction in UK parliamentary elections.

  5. @Tapestry
    I hope that if UKIP gains a significant groundswell support from the disaffected, it will manage to achieve its stated aim to withdraw us from the beast. However, I think we should never underestimate the guile and resourcefulness of the statists to infiltrate and corrode it from within and cause it to backpedal. The elite know how to win – they’ve had a lot of practice!

    I hope that being ‘a spanner in the works’ entails more than aiming insults at Herman Van Rompuy et alia to win populist votes. That is the realm of lightweights – not serious and shrewd political operators..

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