Mainstream Conservatives Have Options

YouGov president Peter Kellner said in an e-mailed statement that the “Liberal Democrats’ reputation for standing for a new, more honest, promise-keeping style of politics has been destroyed by its U-turn over tuition fees”.

If this is the case, then the Lib Dem remainder which has not gone back to Labour (the SDP section) only has any future inside the Coalition.   With the battle for the Lib Dems coming to a close, the new battleground is becoming that between Liberal Conservatives and Mainstream Conservatives, between the Hagueites and the backbenches.  The only problem is that the Mainstream Conservatives in the country are increasingly turning to UKIP, and leaving the Party.

Lib Dems at 22% at the election are now at 10%, while UKIP has moved up to 5% from 3%.  If these trends extrapolate, another year could see UKIP’s vote pulling level with the Lib Dems.  In the EP elections, UKIP was ahead of the Lib Dems even before the coalition.  There must be a good chance that the Conservatives will  do better by teaming up with UKIP, and that thought should give confidence to Conservative backbenchers as they contemplate rebelling against Cameron over the ESM – the European Stabilisation Mechanism, which will eventually suck Britain into the Euro.

Once a battle starts, there would be consequences.   Cameron imagines he can face down a rebellion by threats against his MPs.  But with the tide of public opinion sweeping against him, the mainstream could tip the balance of the party away from Cameron, Hague and the Euro.

The Tap Blog is a collective of like-minded researchers and writers who’ve joined forces to distribute information and voice opinions avoided by the world’s media.

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