Cameron Knows Exactly Where The Weak Point Lies

The problem will be what happens to UKIP. If they surge in the European parliamentary elections in two years time from just second to easily second, or even worse to first, the message being sent to the Coalition would be that ‘you have built your house on rocky ground’.

Hague at the conference seemed to be addressing the Ukipper tendency head on, trying to hold this vote inside the tent, by stating that all the EU laws can be repealed by Parliament. So far the need to deal with the financial crisis has held the Conservative majority who want independence and withdrawal from the EU to defer these feelings and remain onside.
But this could change.
The severity of the financial crisis will be the primary factor that decides how angry people become, and how much they feel able to defer the European running sore. If the crisis seems to be being dealt with successfully, and the economy gets back into growth, the Ukipper might forgive and partly forget.
But if, as seems likely to happen, there is a double dip, which starts in the eurozone periphery and which then spreads across the region, driving up unemployment, and hurting peoples prospects severely, the surge of anti-EU sentiment could become unstoppable. The need to cast off swathes of EU regulations could become most urgent to get people back into work, and business to think of expanding once more.
In these circumstances the coalition would really have a problem.
Conservatives fighting alone could change their approach and promise an IN/OUT referendum to match UKIP’s inevitable use of this tactic. Inside the Coalition they could not.
If Labour were the ones to offer an IN/OUT referendum, the coalition could even be defeated, if it wasn’t able to make moves in this direction. All will finally depend on whether Clegg is willing to act as a real democrat and offer an IN/OUT referendum on EU membership, as interestingly he proposed as an alternative to Lisbon YES/NO before revoking the offer. If he cannot or will not move this way, the Coalition will ultimately founder.
A recovering economy will ease the situation, but make no mistake, the EU is the primary fault line that could crack open the current cosy arrangement between ”right wing” eurosceptic Conservatives, and europhile Liberal Democrats. This is the issue that could do for Cameron as leader, and Clegg as his attachment.

But it will be the economy that decides how critical this issue becomes.

It was not for nothing that Cameron dressed the conference with the British flag draped over the Oak Tree, and with the national sounding slogan – ”Together, In The National Interest’, which he had blazoned across the stage.

He knows exactly where the weak point lies.

The Tap Blog is a collective of like-minded researchers and writers who’ve joined forces to distribute information and voice opinions avoided by the world’s media.

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