Why Labour Lost The Election

Cameron had made three calculations.
1. It was better to lose the election than over-promise, and start mouthing off that he would be all things to all men. With hard economic times approaching he preferred to be understated, and make less promises which might prove hard to deliver.  He preferred to build trust with the electorate than go for a Michael Ashcroft type ‘Big Sell’.
2. He knew Brown’s strong card was with young women. Clegg’s appeal was known to be with young women too. By allowing Clegg to shine, by holding TV debates, Cameron was neutralising a key Brown advantage.
3. He had also calculated that the chances of a hung parliament were very high, and to be in a coalition government would be politically easier than to act independently while taking on Labour’s financial catastrophe.
The election was lost purely because Labour assumed it was in the bag, and didn’t carry out postal voting operations other than in the top 100 marginals, where they proved fully effective as previously. They assumed that the unequal constituencies, and the large majorities they held in the outliers, would see off any threat. The Conservatives did badly in the marginals but scored in the outliers as a result.
Constituencies like Halifax were lost, for example, where the Labour majority was thin. The Conservative candidate had evidence of extensive vote rigging, but when he found it would cost £250,000 to mount a legal challenge to the result, he backed off. He only had a month to do so in any case, and he was timed out. That was not the only example.
In short it was a miracle the Conservatives won the election. It was Labour’s tactical error in not rigging enough seats that made the difference. That was all.
Cameron will now equalise the constituencies, introduce proper voter ID so that by 2015 all the games that Labour used to win 2005 and nearly win 2010, will be gone. We will be living in a democracy once more. Blair’s banana republic will be over.

Did the debates change anything?

The polls changed massively but come election day, the party shares weren’t a million miles off where they’d been before Debate 1,

I don’t think that that is right David. In the pre-debate polling YouGov had the LDs on 18, ICM at 20, MORI 15, ComRes 19 and Populus 21.
They actually came out with 23.6%.

     by Mike Smithson September 19th, 2010 at 09:52

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