AV To Boost UKIP

Today we hear from The Daily Express that 47% of Britons would vote to leave the EU in an IN/OUT referendum.  That represents a big increase over the last two years, when nearer one third were sure that they desired outright exit.  The majority were eurosceptic but were not decided on separation.

People don’t switch allegiance from their traditional parties over single issues, but if AV is about to be introduced, people will have an opportunity to represent their views on the EU by making their second preference vote under AV for UKIP.  In some areas it is even conceivable that this could catapult some UKIP candidates into Parliamentary seats.
If, by the time of the election and after a serious crisis or two in the eurozone, support for EU withdrawal were to grow another 10% to 57%, UKIP under AV could expect exactly that outcome.  This does not seem to have occurred to CoGo election planners.  The talk is of an election pact where Conservatives will vote Lib Dem as their second vote in an electoral pact, and vice versa.  But growing europolemicism might mean that UKIP is given the second vote by a growing number, and Lib Dems the third.  That would be my choice, for example.
Given that, isn’t it odd that the europhile Lib Dems are pushing for AV.  They look back at previous elections and make their sums accordingly.  But if opinion is shifting strongly towards EU-exit in most Britons, the Lib Dems might find the second preference votes they hoped for, going elsewhere.  In politics as in life, you should be careful what you wish for.

EXPRESS Extract –

The fact that in every part of the country there is a majority for leaving says it all.”

The YouGov poll showed that a majority of voters aged over 40 want Britain to quit the EU.
Fifty-two per cent of voters aged between 40 and 59 backed withdrawal, and among the over-60s the figure rose to 57 per cent.
There was significant support for quitting the EU among supporters of all three mainstream political parties.
A total of 63 per cent of Tory voters wanted Britain to quit the EU, with 37 per cent of Labour voters in favour of the move.

The big surprise was that 33 per cent of the Lib Dem supporters quizzed said they would vote against EU membership in a referendum.
If UKIP makes targeting the second vote of people from all parties under AV their strategy, they could end up winning seats, by winning 50% of votes where the majors are unable to get to the 50% bar.

The CoGo could only hope to undo the damage this would cause their electoral pact hopes by offering an unconditional IN/OUT referendum.  That would act as a fair incentive.

The Tap Blog is a collective of like-minded researchers and writers who’ve joined forces to distribute information and voice opinions avoided by the world’s media.

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