Tories Bigger Than Lib Lab Combined But NOM

Has Brown stuffed postal votes into Cameron’s top hundred targets, places like Telford, and Labour are holding on to seats they thought were vulnerable. But in lower priority seats, where Labour haven’t packed in proxies and postal vote support, Conservatives are winning.

This making a very confusing picture if true.

Lib Dems are nowhere, and are the big leg pull of the campaign. Cameron thought that the LDs would pull votes away from Labour, but they haven’t done. Labour thought Clegg would undercut Cameron and he hasn’t done that either. There won’t be PR anytime soon.

5 am – It seems that the Lib Dem surge has caused their voters to consider their policies seriously for the first time – more immigration, amnesty for illegal asylum seekers, join the Euro – and it’s caused their vote to collapse in favour of Cameron and the Conservatives. Who would ever have guessed that Conservative gains from Lib Dems would give Conservatives a fair chance of a majority?

Labour’s banana republic stitch up of key marginals has been highly effective as expected, but the outliers are going blue as are Lib Dems. It might just give enough. Let’s keep watching.

But will Gordon Brown cling on to power in a minority government? That is tonight’s nigtmare.

Comments from PB

90% of NI seats declared
85% of Welsh seats
70% of Scottish seats

25% of English seats

5% of London seats!!

Southern England is a banana republic?

by swingvoter May 7th, 2010 at 3:32 am

295.Labour’s vote share is boosted, methinks, by the early results from Scotland and northern cities.

They could still dip below 28. i.e. below Michael Foot.

by SeanT May 7th, 2010 at 3:27 am

298.England as per a minute ago… 6.1% swing. Not enough
Wales is at 5.5, I think.

Conservative 98 20 1 +19 2,941,583 42.5 +4.0
Labour 43 0 18 -18 1,726,863 24.9 -8.2
Liberal Democrat 9 1 2 -1 1,693,160 24.4 +1.5
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 273,671 3.9 +1.0
British National Party 0 0 0 0 161,454 2.3 +1.8

by DublinWatcher May 7th, 2010 at 3:27 am

282.Another Con gain from LD..

by Rob D May 7th, 2010 at 3:23 am

286.Labour hold Oxford East – Lib Dems fail to gain another key target seat.

by Augustus Carp May 7th, 2010 at 3:25 am

253.Labour vote share now down to 28.6%. Historically poor.

Lib Dems on a pathetic 20.

Tories have a pretty feeble 33.

Where have all the votes gone???

by SeanT May 7th, 2010 at 3:17 am

Is that others then – UKIP, BNP that are keeping the Conservatives out of power? The eurosceptic vote has fractured to the point that we have to have a europhile government in perpetuity. It’s crazy.

73.cons starting to take a few above the mythical 116 marker, compensating for high profile failures low down.

This isn’t over, con price dropping.

by Andrew May 7th, 2010 at 3:46 am

The pattern of electoral ‘practices’ saving the government’s high profile seats while stronger Labour seats, previously with bigger majorities, falling to Conservatives is building. Thee is still hope at this stage.

245.Sky showing tory vote share 36% to Labour 27% – when was the last time Labour scored 27% in an election??

Worcester goes blue

by floater May 7th, 2010 at 4:23 am

246.Lot of Con gains coming in now. Hm.

by SeanT May 7th, 2010 at 4:23 am

277.Sky: Thrasher says Tories are 20 short. But a nice result in Oxwab. Also York Outer, both gains from LDems.

by DublinWatcher May 7th, 2010 at 4:29 am

A milestone: 200 Tory seats in England. Swing is 6.3%

Conservative 200 50 1 +49 6,094,272 42.5 +4.1
Labour 88 1 45 -44 3,598,357 25.1 -8.5
Liberal Democrat 18 3 7 -4 3,463,607 24.1 +1.7
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 561,416 3.9 +1.1
British National Party 0 0 0 0 312,380 2.2 +1.4

by DublinWatcher May 7th, 2010 at 4:47 am

Target seats tally @ 0500.

14 missed under 116 level.
1 loss.

10 gained above 116 level.

Net -5.

London and Much of South still to come.

by Robin Wiggs May 7th, 2010 at 5:00 am

203 Projected national share by ICM is 38:28:23, much as looked likely before the campaign started. 10 point lead – all the clever modelling didn’t predict NOM with Tories 10% ahead and on 38%.

by Ted May 7th, 2010 at 5:19 am

Yes but clever modelling cannot measure the actions of Labour’s ‘elction planners’ in marginal constituencies, Ted.

5.14am: ConservativeHome no longer believes a Tory majority is possible. ConHome sources are talking of 310 seats.

That would exceed combined Labour and Lib Dem totals at least, but be NOM.

The Tap Blog is a collective of like-minded researchers and writers who’ve joined forces to distribute information and voice opinions avoided by the world’s media.
Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedinmail

3 Responses to “Tories Bigger Than Lib Lab Combined But NOM”

  1. tapestry says:

    Are others really polling at near 20%?

    This could be the UKIP loses the Conservatives a majority election.

    That’s what was always feared. The eurosceptic votes has fractured, allowing the eufederalists to hold onto power.

    It’s crazy.

  2. tapestry says:

    UKIP nutters keep Balls in parliament

    by Chris A May 7th, 2010 at 4:53 am
    PB

  3. Twig says:

    No, not UKIP “nutters” – postal votes.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.